BJP-Shiv Sena Alliance at Crossroads: 10 Developments

After a week of brinksmanship and tough negotiations, the Sena and BJP, partners for 25 years, were no closer to agreeing on seat sharing over the weekend. A lot of "formulae" have been suggested from both sides but neither is willing to climb down. Sources say the BJP may release its first list of candidates today.

Leaders from both parties admit that they are the closest to break point than they have ever been. Sena chief Udhav Thackeray said on Sunday, "The big question is whether the alliance with the BJP will survive".

After the meeting of the BJP's central election committee in Delhi on Sunday evening that Mr Modi and Mr Shah attended, senior leader Rajiv Pratap Rudy said, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired the party's central election committee meeting to discuss ways to convince the Sena to accept its formula of contesting 135 seats each in next month's assembly election in Maharashtra."

BJP sources said the Maharashtra unit is in favour of dumping the Shiv Sena and contesting alone if the partner does not concede. Party leaders reportedly discussed preparations for the elections, now 22 days away, and also how the party would fare if it decides to go it alone.

Both Mr Modi and Mr Shah have reportedly said they wish to avoid unpleasantness with the old ally. It was decided at Sunday's meeting that the best efforts must be made to salvage the alliance, sources said. Nominations have to be filed by September 27.

There are 288 seats in the Maharashtra assembly. The BJP wants both parties to contest 135 seats each and leave 18 for smaller parties. In negotiations it has said it can come down to 126 to 130 seats.

In what Mr Thackeray called his final offer yesterday, the Sena says it is willing to contest 151 seats, 18 less than the 169 it contested last time, thus allotting all 18 seats to smaller allies from its quota. That will leave 119 seats for the BJP, the number it had contested then.

The BJP has rejected that offer. It argues that its superior performance in the Lok Sabha elections four months ago qualifies it to equal partner status in the state. The BJP has also argued that the Shiv Sena has consistently lost in 59 seats that it has contested, while the BJP has lost in 19 seats and the allies should look at redistributing these.

The Shiv Sena says giving in to anything less than 150 seats will cause a rebellion in its ranks. It has talked  of self-respect and asserted its status as the senior partner in Maharashtra. The Shiv Sena argues that the Lok Sabha election results or the "Modi wave" that the BJP claims led to their victory will have no bearing on state elections.

The rival alliance of the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party or NCP which has ruled Maharashtra for a 15 years is also in trouble. The two partners have been unable to agree on seat-sharing. The NCP wants to contest exactly half the seats; the Congress is refusing to give to that demand. The core committee of the NCP meets this afternoon in Mumbai, while the top leadership of the Congress is expected to be in deliberations in the capital.