Venezuela's one-man revolution is threatened

Caracas: The bottlenecks at a major port were so bad this year that Christmas trees from Canada were delayed for weeks, and when they did show up they cost hundreds of dollars. A government-run ice cream factory opened with great fanfare, only to shut down a day later because of a shortage of basic ingredients. Foreign currency is so hard to come by that automakers cannot get parts and new cars are almost impossible to buy.

And all of this happened while the economy was growing - before the slowdown many predict next year.

Such frustrations are typical in Venezuela, for rich and poor alike, and yet President Hugo Chavez has managed to stay in office for nearly 14 years, winning over a significant majority of the public with his outsize personality, his free-spending of state resources and his ability to convince Venezuelans that the Socialist revolution he envisions will make their lives better.

Now that revolution is threatened by Chavez's fight with cancer. His health has become precarious enough that before undergoing surgery this week he designated a successor for the first time, saying that Vice President Nicolas Maduro should lead in his place if he cannot continue.

But as the undisputed head of his revolutionary movement, known as Chavismo, Chavez makes virtually all major government decisions and bullies both allies and opponents to keep them in line. Top government officials speak of him as their father. During his most recent presidential campaign this fall he frequently stirred crowds with the shout: "Chavez is revolution!"

Many doubt that any successor will be as adept at fostering support amid the nation's economic problems, widespread corruption, rampant crime and daily hassles - raising the question of what will become of Chavez's movement without him.

"There's just nobody within Chavismo who can remotely match Chavez's capacity to connect to Venezuelans," said Michael Shifter, president of Inter-American Dialogue, a research group in Washington. "What ties it together is loyalty and a personal attachment to Chavez, and that's very weak. That's not a very solid foundation."

On Wednesday, with a grim face, Maduro implied that the president's condition was indeed serious, warning the nation to prepare for "the hard, complex and difficult days" ahead. It is a bitter pill for many Chavez supporters to swallow.

"We don't need another president; we need him," Reina Mocoa said.

A fervent Chavez follower, Mocoa, 50, was given an apartment in a new government-erected building this year. First there was no water. Then the plumbing leaked. A design flaw causes the apartment to flood when it rains. But her ire was never directed at Chavez.

"He gives orders, but they don't do the things as he wants them done," Mocoa said, reflecting a common perception that Chavez's subordinates are corrupt or inept, and that many of the country's problems can be attributed to greedy capitalists. "It's not his fault."

She said she was willing to give Maduro a chance to prove himself. But not all Chavez supporters feel that way.

"I only want Chavez," said Agustin Gutierrez, 53, in Cumana, an eastern city, adding that he did not trust Maduro to carry on "the revolution."

"There cannot be Chavismo without Chavez," he said.

Chavez's own record is mixed. After doing little to address a deep housing shortage, he has given away tens of thousands of homes, but the rush to build meant that many were plagued by construction flaws or other problems. He has used price controls to make food affordable for the poor, but that has contributed to shortages in basic goods. He created a popular program of neighbourhood clinics often staffed by Cuban doctors, but hospitals frequently lack basic equipment.
There is no doubt that living conditions have improved for the poor under Chavez, and that is the greatest source of his popularity. But the improvements came at a time when high oil prices were pouring money into the country and fueling economic growth, which some analysts say would have led to similar improvements under many leaders, even some with more market-friendly policies.
Still, Chavez's movement is as much about ideas and symbols as material gains, and he has given a whole class of people that was once ignored a sense that their problems matter.

If Chavez is unable to start his new six-year term Jan. 10, if he steps down after that or if he dies, new elections will take place. He has named Maduro as his chosen candidate.

For the opposition, a new election so soon after its stinging defeat in the presidential contest in October would seem a golden opportunity. It has never been able to beat Chavez in a head-to-head race, but its candidates have often done well against other members of Chavez's party.

The most likely opposition candidate is Henrique Capriles Radonski, a young governor who ran a strong campaign against Chavez in the October election. On Sunday he will run for re-election as governor of Miranda state. If he wins he would seem set as the opposition standard bearer. If he loses, that could provoke a potentially bruising battle over leadership within the opposition, which has a history of infighting.

But Chavismo, too, has its factions, and Saturday, Chavez staged an intense effort to enforce unity before his operation. Appearing on television to name Maduro as next in line, he pointed to a sword that once belonged to Simon Bolivar, the independence leader whom Chavez venerates, and asked for "all the support of the people."

The factions within Chavismo follow two broad divisions. There is a civilian wing, which includes Maduro, that is strongly committed to the socialist-inspired program. And there is a faction linked to the military, which puts nationalism ahead of socialism. There are other groups, too, including the government-run oil industry and a group of entrepreneurs who have gotten rich off government contracts and connections.

"Now comes the internal power struggle," said Luis La Torre, a supporter of Chavez from Carupano, an eastern city.

For all of Chavez's international clout, especially among other leftist governments in the region, these domestic political relationships may prove the most difficult to manage without him. After all, Maduro has served as foreign minister for six years and is well known for promoting Chavez's often contentious foreign policy, including forging close relations with countries like Iran and Syria.

Some analysts expect little to change on the international front with Maduro at the helm, except perhaps a thawing in relations with the United States because he is considered more open to dialogue.

If Chavez does indeed leave office, whoever replaces him will face a series of economic challenges. Most economists predict growth will slow next year, and some foresee a recession, after a year marked by a huge jump in government spending aimed at getting Chavez re-elected. An eventual devaluation of the currency, the bolivar, seems likely, and many also expect a rise in the already high inflation rate. The oil industry, the most important sector of the economy and a crucial source of government revenue, is stagnant and needs vast investment to increase production levels.

Without Chavez to hold things together, his movement could well splinter over time, whether or not it remains in power. But it is almost certain to remain a force.

"The legacy of Chavez is going to be very powerful," said Francisco Rodriguez, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "It's hard for me to think of a Venezuela where five or 10 years from now there aren't a lot of politicians trying to get votes appealing to having been Chavistas and appealing to the memory that Venezuelans have of Chavez."