The Modi Wave Of 2014: Will It Repeat In Uttar Pradesh?

Lucknow: In 2012, the BJP won 47 of a possible 403 seats, placing it third in the state.

Just two years later, the unbeatable campaign dispensed by Narendra Modi, then a Prime Ministerial candidate, won his party the equivalent of 337 seats - a quantum leap of outstanding proportion.
 
In contrast, the Samajwadi Party, which had won 226 seats under the stewardship of Akhilesh Yadav in 2012, took a freefall to about 42 seats.

To win Uttar Pradesh (it has 403 seats) this year, a party must get 202 seats or 35 per cent of the vote share - the Snake of Victory, as explained here.
 
If you look at the general election results, the SP has 42 seats - about 22 per cent.

The BJP had 337 seats or about 43 per cent. In 2012, it had barely 15 per cent.
 
To win power, the BJP must hold onto most of the "new voters" that it corralled with the storied Modi Wave of 2014 - or it drops below that crucial 35 per cent mark again.

The biggest gains for the BJP came from the Jats, then the forward castes, followed by the non-Jatav Dalits and the Non-Yadav Dalits. It also picked up some sections of the Jatavs, traditionally Mayawati's voters, and the Yadavs, who back the Samajwadi Party.
 
The Jats, who powered the BJP's huge win in Western UP, are upset by demonetisation and suggest they will move back to Ajit Singh's RLD. But the BJP should be able to hold onto the additional forward caste vote it got in 2014 as it consolidates around the BJP in retaliation to the SP-Congress over-powering focus on the Muslim-Yadav groups.

To watch the entire episode of Battleground: Uttar Pradesh - Part 1, click here.