'He's Captain Modi': Irrespective Of Uttar Pradesh Election Result, Prime Minister Narendra Modi Is Still Most Popular Leader

Lucknow: Gopal Dada, the village barber, is lying on a charpai, lulled horizontal by forces other than the overpowering sun. "I voted for the BJP and Modi. Not Hema Malini," he says about the actor-politician who represents the area in parliament. An obligatory effort at trying to stand up is quickly shelved. "This time around, it will not be BJP. The Jats, they are angry."
 Panigram is a short walk from the swish Yamuna expressway. A young man says the Yamuna runs so close that the village is regularly flooded. Hence the name. The holy town of Vrindavan is barely 4 km away, but more than one resident says its selling point is that "poore saat biradari yahaan rehte hain (seven castes live here)."

It is, however, the Jats, largely farmers, who dominate. And many among them say Prime Minister Narendra Modi's sudden note-bandi was a flat-out curse. "Tell me who waited in line at banks. Did it make any difference to the badey-peth seths (the pot-bellied rich)?" asks a man in an impromptu mid-day gathering. "In 2014, there was a Modi wave. We also thought we will give him a chance. But look now. Are there jobs? Our young men are sitting here, hopeless. Farmers have nothing left."

Panigram is not a basic village. There are fancy houses with satellite dishes perched on top; below, slush runs through the streets. Wi-Fi networks keep popping up on your phone.
 Like many parts of Western Uttar Pradesh in 2014, Panigram saw its Jats abandon their traditional loyalty to Ajit Singh and his Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) for Narendra Modi, then running for Prime Minister. The men seated on the ground together say the experiment has ended. It was demonetisation that flipped the switch. Uday Veer, who works on a potato farm nearby, says, "Farmers threw their potatoes outside the cold storage facility. Just left them there. How could we pay the fee?"

Step away from the large gathering, however, and some Jats confess that the BJP remains their choice. "If you go that way, you will find the Jats who supported the BJP. The other lane: Jats who back the RLD," instructs a teen whose friends introduce him as Toofan (because he alone is brave enough to speak the facts). In Panigram, this election is between the BJP and the RLD, says a farmer, acknowledging the divide. As for Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav:"yahaan peh toh unka khata hi nahin khula hai (he has never scored here)". The ruling Samajwadi Party is not strong in this region.

Driving away from Panigram towards Kanpur, the spectacular, new, wide-landed Agra-Lucknow expressway is an effective advertisement for Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav. In his campaign for re-election, he refers often to the roads he has built. But there isn't another car in sight for hours. In fact, there is no sign of any life at all.

Ahead of Etawah, nearly five hours later, lies the constituency of Tirwa. It is dark, and the small shops that spot the less impressive roads here are lit by a single bulb each. At one, a wedding band gathers. Note-bandi has not been conducive to business, its members say. But the setback is temporary - after all, who can do without the fanfare at a wedding? "Baby ko bass pasand hai" from Salman Khan's Sultan is much requested by grooms says the band drummer. Apparently plugged in to the zeitgeist, Team Yadav has created a caller tune for the Chief Minister insisting, "Baby ko bass pasand hai, UP koh Akhilesh pasand hai (Baby digs bass, UP digs Akhilesh)."

In the last three state elections, it has picked the winner. This time, the BJP is the party of choice, say a group of men, who, eyeing the NDTV cameras, have materialised quickly at a roadside stall to criticize the incumbent. "So what if Akhilesh has given roads? I pay for them. My taxes help build them. Should I be thankful for this?" asks a man who says he is a long-time BJP supporter.

Another says he is bemused by the suggestion that in not naming a Chief Minister, the BJP has repeated the mistake it first made in Bihar, and that relying on the PM to bring in votes exposes a lack of subsidiary leadership. "We are not worried, they can pick a Chief Minister later. So what if Modi won't be here to govern the state? He will pick someone reliable. It is like Virat Kohli - there are 10 other players with him. But he is the Captain. So Modi is the Captain. He has to win the match."

The cricket analogy comes from a prototype mid-level BJP worker, someone well known in the area who can quickly and easily assume the role of spokesperson in a large crowd. Other parties warn that even in areas where the BJP is not a mainstream choice, its voluble workers are masters in creating the impression that it is the party to beat.

It is true that in some areas, Dalits, when within earshot of others, say their choice is "phool" (the BJP's lotus). But if they are taken aside and questioned some more, some claim to have not defected from "haathi" (Mayawati's elephant). It is tough to discern which of the two answers they feel is expected. The village of Yakubganj is bare of any pretence of development. What passes for the lone shop is a wooden counter with a few jars of sweets and gutka (chewing tobacco). The owners, a couple, are Rawats (non-Jatav Scheduled Caste). "We are Harijans," they say. "Last time, we voted for 'haathi'. But this time, it is essential for us to support phool." They explain why. "You see the others - they are all going after Muslims, Muslims. What about us, then? It is a matter of dharam (religion). Should Hindus not come together? We must," the man says.

Here is a fundamental of this election: Akhilesh Yadav and the Congress are recognised as an alliance so concentrated on the Muslims and Yadavs, that in large swathes, Hindus feel they must vote by religion rather than caste this time around. The perception that Akhilesh Yadav has skewed significant policies to benefit Muslims, blatantly favouring them at the cost of Hindus, is widespread. So is the resentment over his turning police stations into employment centres for Yadavs.

A woman who says she is from one of four Muslim families in the village says, "I just keep hearing phool, phool. They are all giving their vote to it. I cannot vote for it, can I? She voted for 'cycle' (Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party). Not Haath (Congress)? She sneers. "What is 'panja' (Congress) in position to offer? 'Cycle' is for us (Muslims)."
 In most conversations like these, the Congress is conspicuous in its absence. It is the choice of Muslims in villages like Zaidpur and collects a few mentions in pockets of Raebareli, but that's about it. Young men often say Akhilesh Yadav seems to be doing a good job; when asked who their parents are supporting, a row of schoolgirls say "Modi, Modi"; but Rahul Gandhi is never brought up. Not by the youth, not by women, not by older men. A senior police officer at the PM's rally in Fatehpur says the PM is drawing huge audiences (critics say hold up, that didn't translate into votes in Bihar). Rahul Gandhi, the cop says, just isn't cutting it. "He seems like he has no plan. Has he offered any plan for after the election, for anything?" A few days later, Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi draw a huge response in Allahabad; "Did you see crowds like this when Rahul Gandhi was on his Kisan Yatra (rally for farmers)?" asks a man about the Congress leader's solo campaign in September. "If people are coming now to see him, it is because he is with Akhilesh."
 The presumption that their union would prevent the Muslim vote from splitting has brought Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi together. Proof of concept is not hard to find. "If we believe that Modi is doing good work and vote for him, the others here will still not believe we voted for him. So why should I? My vote will just be discounted," says a Muslim man in Yakubganj. He says he corralled "150 members of my family to vote for 'cycle'". He offers his opinion flanked by a Hindu who says he chose the BJP. "Here, we all live together. You vote for who you want, I vote for who I want. No tension."

It's a fragile peace, as demonstrated recently in Muzaffarnagar. The range of castes at least spreads the risk around. But if the election is distilled to a binary choice of Hindu or Muslim, the safety net is suddenly skimpy. The subtleties of an undercurrent, however crude, should not be discounted. Ditch them for the full flow of a heavy-handed polarized vote, and what is to keep the ground from shifting at a moment's notice? By, say, a speech or a video?

As the cameras record the village elders, watching from across a rivulet of sewage is a young girl with a bicycle. She says it was accompanied by Rs 10,000 towards college fees, from an Akhilesh Yadav scheme to promote education. She can't vote yet, but when she can, "It will be haathi, only haathi. He (Akhilesh) may have given me the cycle, but it is Behenji (Mayawati) who gave us respect, who ensured we are not overlooked. Otherwise, what does a Dalit get? Nothing". Mayawati supporters maintain that only she empowers them.

Her mother says there is a house down the lane that has an LPG cylinder. "It was sent by Modi. We didn't get one... maybe a few more will be sent." Among women certainly, the PM's free gas cylinder scheme for the poor is best-in-show. None spoke of Jan Dhan or the zero-balance accounts, essential to his plans for more digital transactions. Virtually all referred to the LPG or cooking gas. It is unmatched, in popular perception, as a symbol of what his administration has changed; its appeal is evident when, in a speech in Fatehpur (where he made his Diwali-Ramazan remarks), PM Modi invoked his mother's plight, sweating over a wooden stove. "Our sisters, our mothers, they must have cylinders," he said, drawing one of the largest rounds of applause of his speech.

Those who don't have a cylinder yet are hopeful that their turn is imminent. It is another sign of the faith that people have in the PM - that his decisions are competent and his policies well-intentioned, even if the execution is bumpy or the results delayed. Opposition aides agree that at a time when most politicians face "a crisis of credibility", the PM, now half-way through his term, and despite the 'Note-Bandi Project', still controls the repository of trust and goodwill he constructed in 2014. Even those who say they won't vote for him rarely fault him for his style of leadership.

Aides of the young Chief Minister feel that the early part of his campaign placed too much stock on development and not enough on caste, handing the advantage to the PM, whose own messaging on economic accomplishments is far superior. Making medicines cheaper: done. Attacking the black market for urea: check. Cancelling farmers' loans: on the agenda of the first meeting of the UP cabinet if a BJP government is formed. Akhilesh Yadav responded that winning the state is not needed, the centre can cancel loans whenever it chooses. But as BJP star campaigner Yogi Adityanath told NDTV, public opinion can trump facts wholesale.

Whether or not Uttar Pradesh elects the BJP, the report card for the Prime Minister can already be gauged. The fact that he is seen as above, and separate, from his party, distances him from culpability should they lose. At the same time, his personal brand remains on-message: that he, and only he, is the guarantor for public good.