New Delhi:
As the Indian Meteorological Department will give its much-awaited first long-range forecast on the coming monsoon on Wednesday, the government has started a global research initiative to understand the nature of monsoons in India.
The Rs 400 crore "Monsoon Mission" hopes to unravel the scientific mysteries of the monsoon. The project will monitor oceans using special research vessels and aircraft and ultimately lead to the development of a new climate forecast model, while also studying the atmosphere.
Scientists from a number of countries are participating in the project, which will be funded by the government of India.
Forecasts of monsoon - a global ocean-atmospheric phenomenon -- are notoriously unreliable.
In the last 122 years, the Indian weather office has never accurately predicted a drought or flood. Weather officials predicted 2014 to be a normal monsoon year, but there was a drought. Weather officials predicted 2011 to be a dry year, but heavy floods occurred.
"It is a very complex question. The process itself is very complex. Our understanding (of the monsoon) is improving but still miles to go," said Dr Laxman Singh Rathore, Director General, India Meteorological Department. "Global researchers are partnering with Indian scientists to understand the processes in the atmosphere and the ocean that determine the monsoon."
What is definite is that moisture laden clouds will arrive and drop at least 60 cm of rain over India as they have done for thousands of years -- beyond that it is hazy.