Hyderabad:
Kiran Kumar Reddy has proved his majority in the Andhra Pradesh assembly- the fact that the vote was so close makes this a victory for Jagan Mohan Reddy.
Sixteen MLAs from Mr Reddy's party, the Congress, voted against the Chief Minister in a show of loyalty to Jagan, who quit the party in November 2010 to set up his own YSR Congress, named after his father. Without these rebel MLAs, the Congress was reduced to a minority in the Assembly. Mr Reddy remains in power because of the support of two parties who voted for him: The PRP which was founded by actor Chiranjeevi who merged it with the Congress earlier this year, and the seven-member Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM).
Jagan has challenged the Congress to disqualify the members who defied the party whip. He wants by-elections to be held in their constituencies. "Don't do politics in this as well. By going one or two or three constituencies at a time, so that you can pump in money and your state machinery and ministers everywhere. Go all in one go," he said.
YSR Reddy was Chief Minister when he died in a helicopter crash two years ago. Jagan was not chosen as his successor, leading to a painfully public estrangement and then divorce from the Congress. During this process, as Jagan toured the state to assert himself as his father's political heir, several Congress MLAs defied party orders to escort him as he travelled through their constituencies. YSR was one of Andhra Pradesh's most popular leaders. Jagan's sweeping victory in the election for Kadapa, once represented by his father, proved his emerging power in local politics, and many Congress members were keen on a public association with him. A recent CBI investigation into Jagan's multi-crore business empire, has tarnished his sheen somewhat. So for him, last night's vote on the government was a chance to prove he can still hit the Congress where it hurts.
The no-confidence motion against Mr Reddy was courtesy Chandrababu Naidu and his party, the TDP, moved on the issue of farmers in distress though it was non-farmer politics that determined how everyone voted.
So far, the Congress has taken no action against the 16 MLAs who voted against Mr Reddy. "We are not afraid. Even if one member leaves the party, we will enquire into the reasons and then only take action," declared Botsa Satyanarayana Reddy, the president of the Congress in the state. But privately, sources admit that the Congress is feeling the heat.
If the 17 MLAs who defied their party whip are disqualified, then byelections will have to be held in 24 Assembly seats, including seven that are already vacant, six of them because the sitting members resigned on the issue of statehood for Telangana. The Congress performance in what may become a mini-referendum for the Kiran Kumar Reddy government may set the mood for the elections in 2014.
The Central government's refusal to sanction a new state of Telangana has allowed other political parties to accuse the Congress of betrayal - in 2009, the Centre agreed to statehood for Telangana, only to withdraw the decision after huge protests from regions like Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, who are opposed the bifurcation of the state. Protests by pro-Telangana campaigners have hit industry and daily life, leaving Mr Reddy exposed to allegations of poor governance.