NDTV's opinion poll shows that in Bihar, chief minister Nitish Kumar is likely to pay a very heavy penalty for ending his 17-year alliance with the BJP over its decision to place its campaign in the charge of Narendra Modi. (
NDTV Opinion Poll: forecast for Bihar)
The poll shows that Mr Kumar's Janata Dal United or JDU will win just five of the state's 40 parliamentary seats - that's 15 down from the last election in 2009 which the party contested in partnership with the BJP. (
The Final Word: India's Biggest Opinion Poll)
Mr Modi will deliver 23 seats for the BJP and its new ally Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).
The Congress which has tied up with Lalu Prasad is set to win 11 seats.
Last week, Mr Kumar said on NDTV that he believes his credentials for prime minister are far superior to those of Mr Modi. "The people who are roaming around today as candidates for PM, do they have any experience like me? People who aspire to lead parliament, do they have any experience in parliament?" Mr Kumar had said.
Mr Kumar aborted his partnership with the BJP because he said he could not support the national ascension of a divisive leader like Mr Modi.
Mr Kumar alleges that as chief minister of Gujarat, Mr Modi did not protect hundreds of Muslims who were killed in the state's communal riots in 2002.
A Supreme Court inquiry has cleared Mr Modi of charges that he was complicit in the violence. A court also recently ruled that he will not be prosecuted.
The BJP says that Mr Kumar's stand on Mr Modi is driven not by ideology but by a desperate attempt to ingratiate himself with Bihar's Muslim voters.
Last week, at a rally in Bihar, Mr Modi said that Muslims in Gujarat are more prosperous than those in Bihar, alleging that his state has done far more to enable and empower the minority community.