Bangalore:
The battle for Karnataka is likely to be fought now in Delhi.
The BJP is likely to bring its MLAs to Delhi to prove its numbers to the President of India.
That comes after it won a trust vote amid complete chaos in the Karnataka Assembly this morning. The obligatory fireworks and sweets were produced at the BJP office in Bangalore after the government won its trust vote, but the celebrations seemed both forced and premature.
Within hours came the news that the Karnataka Governor, HR Bhardwaj, had, in a report to the Centre, described the vote as "a farce" and recommended President's rule. Then Law Minister Veerappa Moily weighed in, stating on NDTV that the BJP government in Karnataka was in a minority and that "fear psychosis had been created in the Assembly." (
Read: Law Minister backs Governor) | (
Read: Karnataka crisis: Governor steps in, sends advisory to Speaker)
However, sources tell NDTV that the Centre is unlikely to push for President's Rule. What it would prefer is another floor test.
That's unlikely to sit well with the BJP, which has already accused the Governor of being partisan.
"I am very, very happy - today we have got absolute majority - we have proved in the House. And Opposition parties they are very much disappointed - that is why they created the problem inside the House," said Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa. (
Read: Chief Minister Yeddyurappa's BJP govt wins trust vote) |
(Money used to power revolt, says Yeddyurappa)
But the Opposition - mainly the Congress and the JD(S) - say it was the BJP that caused the chaos this morning, ensuring that the voice vote that confirmed Yeddyurappa's majority was deceptive. (
Read: Undemocratic vote, will appeal to Governor, says Congress)
Early this morning, the Speaker of the Assembly, KG Bopaiah, disqualified 11 rebel BJP MLAs and five independent MLAs, citing anti-defection laws. The overall strength of the House was reduced to 208. The BJP had to get 105 votes to continue in power. (
Read: Speaker disqualifies 16 rebel MLAs)Minutes before the vote began, five of the disqualified MLAs forced their way into the Vidhan Soudha, assaulting security guards or marshals. Shards of glass were flung around, the police entered the House while it was in Session. (
Read: Speaker asked us to enter Assembly, say police)
Immediately after the voice vote that confirmed Yeddyurappa's majority, Opposition MLAs met the Governor to protest against the vote, and to demand that the BJP government be sacked.
(Video Special:Who said what)"The incidents which took place during the time of the confidence vote - all the issue we explained to the Governor. From Congress also - their leaders... from our party JD(S) - other than that... all the individual MLAs who gave the representation to the Governor withdrawing their support to Yeddyurappa government - they also requested the Governor to request the Centre to dismiss the government," said former chief minister and JD(S) leader HD Kumarasawmy, who many believe orchestrated the current crisis for the BJP by persuading a handful of MLAs to withdraw support to the Chief Minister.
A recent Cabinet reshuffle which left many BJP MLAs disgruntled provided the tipping point.
But beyond the political polemics, what will be examined closely now is whether the Speaker's decision to disqualify the rebel MLAs before the vote was legal.
The Governor had indicated to the Speaker that they should be allowed to participate in the trust vote. The BJP attacked the Governor for being partisan and for exceeding his brief by offering that advice.
"An independent elected - if he joins any other political party he is likely to be disqualified. They have joined a particular political party - a document has been produced," said Bopaiah.
BJP President Nitin Gadkari agreed with the chief minister's diagonsis that money had been ued to power the BJP revolt. "I'm a hundred percent confident now, those people who have been bribed, those who took money and those who were disloyal to the party, they have been disqualified and this has made me very satisfied," Gadkari said.
However, the rebels aren't giving up without (more of) a fight. They have gone to court against their disqualification. Their case will be heard in Bangalore on Tuesday.
Karnataka crisis: What happens next?By recommending President's Rule for Karnataka, the Governor HR Bhardwaj, has invoked the anger of the BJP, which accuses him of acting as an extension of the Congress.
Bhardwaj has previously served as Law Minister for the Congress.
But was his report asking for the BJP government to be dismissed scripted by the Centre or has it created an awkward situation for the Union government?
The Law Minister, Veerappa Moily, today threw his weight behind Bhardwaj's stand.
But pushing for President's Rule means gifting martyrdom to the BJP, which has consistently accused the Congress of manufacturing the current crisis by encouraging BJP MLAs to dump the government.
Also, the Congress would have to ensure that it has the numbers needed to get President's Rule ratified by the Rajya Sabha.
The Left is unlikely to back that motion - it has hinted that it would prefer for Yeddyurappa to face a trust vote in less cacophonous conditions than today's.
What might be the least controversial route then for the Congress is to wait till the Karnataka High Court decides on Tuesday about the disqualification of the 16 rebel MLAs who were not allowed to vote today.