(M.K.Venu is Executive Editor of Amar Ujala publications group)RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat has sought to temper the excessive self-congratulation within the BJP over the 2014 Lok Sabha victory.
Bhagwat's statement comes in the wake of the BJP National Council Meeting this weekend where individuals were lionised for the party's stunning scale of victory -- not anticipated by the BJP itself -- in the Hindi heartland, especially Uttar Pradesh. Bhagwat tried to inject a sense of realism by suggesting the scale of victory was due more to people's over-whelming desire for change rather than a Superman-like performance by some individuals. By doing so, the RSS chief is also warning against the possibility of some sort of personality cult developing within the BJP over time. The RSS has always been averse to personality cultism though it seemed to have made an exception in the case of
Narendra Modi who became a rallying point for people desperately wanting change. It is possible that the RSS may want Modi to now focus more on issues than promoting individuals within the party.
(Also Read: RSS Chief Seems to Disagree With PM Modi, Congress Sees Divide in Parivar)
Amit Shah was declared "man of the match" for his performance in the key state of Uttar Pradesh by the PM in his speech at the BJP National Council. This was only expected. There has been a pronounced tendency to see Shah as the magician who will deliver the party victory after victory with his rare ability to micro-manage every ground-level detail in an election. While Shah may have done a good job, does anyone talk about the individual in charge of Bihar who delivered 31 out of 40 seats for the BJP? Or, for that matter, other individuals coordinating the elections in MP, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh where the party won over 95% of all seats? Surely you have a man of the match in each of these states. But you don't hear of them these days as the party leaders themselves have withdrawn into a quiet huddle and refuse to talk with abandon as they did before.
Journalists covering BJP for years say that while the party was in opposition, it was fun interacting with BJP leaders who were the most forthcoming of all political parties and displayed a certain irreverence and banter even when discussing their own leaders. That ease of communication is gone now as the cult of personality is on the rise, say many journalists who have been covering the BJP for years.
As for the 2014 Lok Sabha results, the BJP will make a big mistake if it thinks it can repeat that performance and make it a "habit" as Amit Shah put it. A slight change of mood among the people is enough to force a reassessment of "individual brilliance" in electoral politics. The coming assembly elections may even show that some of the sheen the BJP acquired because of the massive anti-incumbency against the UPA is somewhat wearing off. As it is, people have begun saying there is no radical departure from the style of governance seen in the past.
Even statistically, the BJP's electoral performance was a rare occurrence. The BJP has managed 283 seats in Parliament largely due to an unprecedented vote share-to-seats conversion ratio in India's electoral history. With just 31% vote share, the BJP got 283 seats. This works out to over 9 seats for every 1% vote share.
The biggest election wave in India's electoral history happened after Indira Gandhi's assassination in November 1984. The Congress got a massive mandate of 414 seats in Parliament and bagged 48% of all votes polled. The vote share-to-seats conversion in this unprecedented, one-way election was 8.7 seats for every 1% of votes polled in favour of the Congress. What is interesting is that the BJP in 2014 has bettered the Congress feat of 1984 with a higher vote to seat conversion ratio of 9.1 seats for every 1% vote share.
The opposition parties have understood that the BJP got an unprecedented vote share to seat conversion ratio, even higher than the Congress's in 1984, because the opposition was totally fragmented in UP and Bihar. This is getting corrected with Nitish, Lalu and Congress creating an unbeatable combination in Bihar with 46% vote share, as polled in Lok Sabha. So the "Supermen" of electoral politics and strategy will be tested in the assembly election in Bihar next year against a stronger index of opposition unity.
The same process will happen in UP where the Congress and BSP will surely strike a deal before the assembly elections due in two years. So all the organisational brilliance of the chosen few in the BJP will be put to test in the assembly elections in UP and Bihar. Another mistake the BJP is making is to imagine the same strategy will work twice. Communal ill-will worked for the BJP in Western UP during the Lok Sabha polls. Now the party thinks that by keeping the communal pot simmering around the regions where many assembly by-elections are due soon will work again in its favour on the scale it did the last time.
Meanwhile, the Congress has realized its mistake in not going for a seat adjustment with the BSP in UP. The BSP didn't get a single seat in UP inspite of getting 20% vote share in the state. But it stood at number two in 34 constituencies in UP. With the Congress not fighting in most of these seats, the BSP could have got about 12 to 15 seats. This experiment will certainly be attempted in the assembly elections.
So the newly appointed BJP President will have to contend with a much higher index of opposition unity in UP and Bihar in the coming years. This will happen when the electorate will also be in a position to judge the overall performance of Centre in relation to the dreams sold by Narendra Modi in 2014.
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