Tamil Nadu Assembly Election: EPS is hoping to lead the AIADMK to a third term (File)
Ten years of anti-incumbency, the absence of a larger-than-life leader and a fight for control of the party (from within and outside) has put the AIADMK and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, or EPS, in a tight position, from which he has to buck the odds to emerge a winner.
So the ruling party and its ally, the BJP, have decided to do what always works well - disappointingly so - in Indian elections - play the caste card to influence voters.
Two big caste-based decisions were unveiled in the run-up to Tuesday's polling.
One was the 10.5 per cent internal quota for the Vanniyar community for admission to educational institutions and government jobs, which falls within the existing 20 per cent for the MBC category.
The second was the recognition of Devendrakula Vellalars as a separate group.
Whether or not these calculations work out will be decided on May 2, when the votes are tallied.
Either way, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Coimbatore, just a few days before the election dates were confirmed, he announced that the Pallars and six other Dalit sub-castes from the Scheduled Caste list would be collected under the Devendrakula Vellalars.
That was a long-standing demand of the community articulated by leaders like K Krishnasamy of the Puthiya Tamizhagam, who wanted to be distinguished from others in the same category.
A point to be noted here - the Puthiya Thamizhagam is not part of AIADMK-BJP alliance.
Nomenclature sometimes makes a difference to the way people think they are perceived. That the Prime Minister thought it fit to make the announcement was heartening for the community.
In Tamil Nadu the Scheduled Caste population is almost 20 per cent, 17 per cent of which are the Pallars. Their vote matters in at least 25 districts and they can influence the election outcome.
There were, however, as they always are, issues.
For one, not everyone thought the Devendrakula Vellalars should remain in that list. Some thought they should be moved to the MBC list and others felt this was an attempt to divide and conquer.
Southern and western Tamil Nadu districts have a history of tension between the so-called dominant castes - like Thevars, Gounders or even Vanniyars - and the Scheduled Castes.
The AIADMK had already been worried about losing the Thevar vote in southern Tamil Nadu; in its manifesto the party had promised to rename the Madurai airport after Thevar patriarch Pasumpon Muthuramalinga Thevar. That move, however, was not welcomed by the Devendrakula Vellalars, who saw this as a slight to their community.
Meanwhile, the history behind the 10.5 per cent quota decision included violence by the Vanniyars by the PMK (who are allied with the AIADMK-BJP) as recent as December last year.
The Special Reservation Act passed by EPS, minutes before the Model Code went into effect, was meant to help the AIADMK in just such a situation.
What the party did not perhaps anticipate was other caste groups - who felt their opportunities were being diminished - consolidating. This is already happening in the northern and, importantly, southern belts, which was considered a stronghold of the AIADMK-voting Thevars.
However, the sidelining of Sasikala, who is from that community, and the inability of Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam, or OPS to counter EPS' emergence from the Gounders, was not well received. Worse still, now they can rally behind TTV Dhinakaran, or TTV, who is Sasikala's nephew and is widely expected to take away votes that could hurt the AIADMK.
Evidence of this can be found in the 2019 Lok Sabha election.
OPS knows that in Bodinayakanur - his constituency - and in Madurai and the southern regions, the Thevar vote is critical. Neither the AIADMK nor he can afford to lose it.
And that is why we saw OPS say that the 10.5 per cent quota is "provisional... and subject to emergence of final census enumeration". He was countered, predictably, by Ramadoss of the PMK, who insisted it was already law and could not be reversed.
The alliance was already speaking in multiple voices.
Then OPS went on camera to say he had never criticised Sasikala and respected both aunt and nephew. That was seen as an attempt to win back favour from the AMMK and the Thevars.
TTV, who played a role in Jayalalithaa noticing OPS and his subsequent rise, quickly moved to mock the Deputy Chief Minister's U-turns. And Sasikala, who has said she is "staying away from politics" is reportedly busy on a spiritual tour to places of worship, raying for the return of 'Amma' rule.