New Delhi:
The first three hours of counting of votes in five states have been a rollercoaster ride as India's biggest reality show plays out with dramatic twists and turns. The story so far: Akhilesh Yadav had the best Uttar Pradesh script and his Samajwadi Party looks set to form government; Punjab has swung this way and that before settling in favour of the incumbent - the Akalis seem set to create history as the first party to come back in the state. The Congress' fortunes have swung wildly through the morning, but the report card so far reads - number 4 in UP, though with gains over 2007, down in Punjab, down in Goa. It is ahead in Uttarakhand but looks shy of a majority and is keeping Manipur.
(Assembly Elections 2012: Live Trends)Mayawati is the day's big loser. Though Behenji's BSP has shaken off the ignominy of being number four on the UP table, crawling slowly up to a sad number two now, the BSP is down to about the halfway mark of the 206 seats it had won in 2007. The big picture has begun to emerge, piece by little piece, in what has been called a mini-general election.
Several political careers, future alliances and even the road to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections are expected to be decided today. Today's results have been seen as crucial for the UPA government at the Centre as they could affect equations, strengthen or weaken it, just 10 days before the Budget session gets underway. It needs fresh allies in Parliament, will it look the Samajwadi Party way?
The BJP's Muqtar Abbas Naqvi made clear this morning that his party will not look at a third-time political marriage with Mayawati in UP. As trends add up now, a BSP plus BJP scenario would still be short of the SP's grand total anyway. That SP tally could be somewhere within striking distance of the 202 halfway mark - a huge gain over the last time; 39-year-old Akhilesh Yadav, who tried to present a new face of the SP, seems to be the man of the moment. The dancing crowds and sea of red Gandhi caps outside the SP office in Lucknow tell the story.
In early trends, the BJP had seemed the surprise package of UP but is now settling down to a better-than-before-but-not-quite-there performance. It is neck and neck with the Congress at the bottom of the UP table now. Party leader Sudheendra Kulkarni described it as a "wasted opportunity." The Congress is likely to more than double its tally of 22 in 2007, but is it of any consequence? Party spokesman Rashid Alvi said "whatever verdict has been given by the people, we have accepted....It was against our expectations and we will find out where we have gone wrong".
Rahul Gandhi's lieutenants in UP all prefaced counting day with the assertion that if Congress did well in UP, it was the Rahul magic working. But if it failed, it was all their fault. UP Congress chief Rita Bahugana said that this morning. But these elections were a public test for Rahul's political equity and seven years of focusing on UP. Analysts say that the mandalisation of the Congress, which aggressively played the Muslim quota card, might have gifted it.
(Will Congress admit Rahul Gandhi under-performed in UP?)Punjab has a long tradition of voting out whoever is in power. The Shiromani Akali Dal looks poised to change that statistic now. All on its own - Akali ally the BJP is all but lost in the Punjab wilderness. As expected, the Congress is doing well in urban areas. But Captain Amarinder Singh, who said yesterday that he was cooking the Akali goose, might have to eat his words.
(Trends indicate Akalis set to return in Punjab)Goa saw a huge turnout - over 82 per cent. Poll pundits say that there could be a BJP comeback after five years of Congress-NCP rule. Very early trends from the two Goa centres are in keeping with that projection.
In Uttarakhand, the efforts and clean image of BJP Chief Minister BC Khanduri have been universally appreciated and though analysts across said the party might have brought him in too late to keep the state, the BJP and the Congress are neck and neck. Mr Khanduri was brought in by the BJP only in September last to try and obliterate the taints of corruption that the party needed to obliterate and the Congress has smelt a comeback chance in the hill state.
The Congress will keep Manipur.