New Delhi:
As Vijay Bahuguna was taking the oath of office at Dehradun, an interesting scene was unfolding at Harish Singh Rawat's house in the capital where since the morning, several of his supporters had descended, shouting slogans in his support.
Six musicians with drums and the traditional
shehnai, led a march into Mr Rawat's residence. Many of Mr Rawat's supporters who had, at the time, taken a break to follow the swearing-in ceremony on TV got up and joined in the procession. If you didn't know it, this would have looked like a celebration of sorts! And yet, Harish Rawat, is still a long way off from leading any sort of government in Uttarakhand.
Mr Rawat, the current MP from Haridwar and minister in the union government, says he's deeply hurt and feels humiliated with not having been given the top job in the state. The Congress instead had chosen Tehri MP, Vijay Bahuguna to be the Chief Minister instead.
The Rawat camp claims to have the support of at least 17 Congress MLAs; that's more than half the Congress's strength of 32 without its allies in the 70-member assembly. But how many of these MLAs will continue to support him if he's not able to make a break and lead the government in Uttarakhand?
So what are the options for Mr Rawat?- Break from the Congress and form his own faction
If he has 17 MLAs, he still needs five more to make 22 in order to get 2/3rd of the total MLAs to break away. If he falls short here, then they all will be disqualified under the anti-defection law.
Even if he manages to break away with a minimum of 22 MLAs, he needs to get to 36 seats to stand a chance at government formation and the magic half way-plus-one-seat mark in the assembly.
That means he will need the support of either more Congress MLAs to break away from Vijay Bahuguna and come with him, or the BJP's support.
In fact last night, Mr Rawat is reported to have spoken to BJP President Nitin Gadkari. Is a truck with BJP being actively pursued? Or is this being done to keep the Congress high command guessing?
Today, 13 Congress MLAs attended Mr Bahuguna's swearing in, that leaves 19 MLAs. If 17 are with Mr Rawat, two Congress MLAs are unaccounted for.
So assuming he gets 19 MLAs on his side, he needs 17 more to get to 36.
Three BSP + three independents + one UKD comes to just seven. Add to that the 19 MLAs and he will have 26 on his side. But, he will still be 10 short of 36; hence the BJP would have to help if he is to form any government.
Story from the pastMr Rawat had, in 2002, also been a front-runner for the post of CM, but N D Tiwari had pipped him to the post. Even then, several MLAs had gone to Congress President Sonia Gandhi in protest, but the Congress high command had held firm. Mr Rawat maintains that he had prevailed on his party men not to break discipline and work with Mr Tewari. Mr Rawat had clearly hoped that next time around, he would get a chance to be the CM.
But all of this seems like a long shot; as they say, in politics, there are no permanent enemies or friends, and if Mr Rawat cannot lead the way to forming the government, then many of the MLAs who he's banking on may simply melt away, preferring to be part of the government and the perks that go with power.
Face-saverIf Mr Rawat cannot get the numbers, (22+) then what's the face saver?
Talk in Mr Rawat's camp is that, they may agree to a rotational CM formula, with Mr Bahuguna as CM for six months, followed by Mr Rawat. But during this time, Vijay Bahuguna, who gives up his seat in Parliament, will have to fight a bye-election to get into the assembly.
His political rivals in the Congress (read the Rawat camp) may make it tough for him to win, making Mr Rawat's position stronger in the party
Moreover, BJP's Khanduri too has indicated that he will contest the Lok Sabha seat, ever since he lost his own seat in Kotdwar, largely on account of internal sabotage by the BJP's Nishank Pokhiryal camp. Mr Khanduri could very well fight from Tehri, which Mr Bahuguna has vacated. If Mr Khanduri wins against a Congress man, this would also be a blow to the new CM.
The next few days promise to be interesting indeed!