UP elections: In countdown, all talk about post-poll alliances

Lucknow: Counting of votes will begin at 8 am on Tuesday and elections are the flavour this week, with every eye on the five states where polls have been held. Especially on Uttar Pradesh, where exit poll predictions say - hung Assembly. Calculators are out as likely political alignments are worked out - events of the last two decades suggest that only political expediency will decide friends and foes in the state. On the eve, there is bluster, posturing and some startling comments.

Like that of Congress leader Beni Prasad Verma, who created a flutter yesterday when he seemed to throw his weight behind the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which, exit polls of all hue predict is on its way out. "I personally prefer the BSP to the Samajwadi Party (SP). Mayawati has controlled lawlessness from Kanpur to Etah," said Mr Verma; the Congress crafted much of its UP strategy around attacking Ms Mayawati and her five-year reign that ends now. The party quickly distanced itself from Mr Verma's comment, with party spokesperson Rashid Alvi saying, "Whatever Verma said was his personal opinion. The party high command will take a decision after taking into account all aspects and only after the results are out on Tuesday." (Watch)

The political journey of the dramatis personae in this little aside gives a sense of UP politics. Beni Prasad Verma was till recently a prominent leader of the Samajwadi Party. Rashid Alvi has in the past been the leader of the BSP in the Lok Sabha.

Congress sources say Mr Verma's statement is more a dig at his former party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, whose son Akhilesh has asserted that the Samajwadi Party will get a majority and will not need Congress support. Mulayam Singh would be the next Chief Minister, Akhilesh has said. The 39-year-old, who wrote his party's UP 2012 election script, will hope hard that exit polls get it right this once - the polls across have predicted that the SP will emerge as the single largest party, though short  of a simple majority at 202 seats; the UP Assembly has 403 seats.

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Exit polls have predicted that despite Rahul Gandhi giving his all this time, the Congress will come in fourth, after the SP, BSP and BJP. Mr Verma asserted that whatever its position, the Congress holds the key and that it was not looking Mulayam Singh's way. "Congress has the key to form the government in Uttar Pradesh and we will form the government. If we have to take support, then BSP is better than Samajwadi Party (SP). SP is a party of goons, the whole state will be troubled by them. The BSP is a party of the Dalits," Mr Verma said.

Rita Bahuguna Joshi, the Congress chief in UP, hastened to explain, "You know Beni ji. He is a man of independent thinking... these are his individual views. That's his take. That is not the party position... If we get a majority then we will form the government. Otherwise we will sit in the Opposition."

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For the Congress, of most import, is a very good finish and steady gains in the state. The election results in Uttar Pradesh could go a long way in deciding the political future of not just the Congress, but that of party general secretary Rahul Gandhi, who masterminded the party's UP strategy.

Part of that strategy was to sew up a pre-election alliance with Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal. But as exit poll predictions began to be discussed, there was speculation about a possible SP-RLD alliance. RLD chief Ajit Singh, who is a new and important minister in the UPA government now, stoutly maintains that, "We have an alliance with the Congress in UP and at the Centre. The two parties will take a collective decision." (Watch: No tie-up with SP, says Ajit Singh)

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In this grey zone of taunts and counter-taunts before numbers start speaking, the BJP's Nitin Gadkari had said last week, "Ajit Singh's party is like a taxi. Whoever does a 'meter down' they will go along with him."

But it was not Mr Gadkari's words but those of son Jayant Chaudhury that would have brought Ajit Singh's. Mr Chaudhary, an MP who also contested assembly elections in UP this time, said, "To survive, to serve your cause I don't think we will let any opportunity go by. Those who say they are not in politics to survive are just lying through their teeth."

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Mr Chaudhury's words seem to sum up what is likely to happen in UP, across parties, tomorrow.

From the ruling BSP, there is no word yet after the exit polls. Mayawati is seeking her second consecutive term as Chief Minister, her fifth ever. Her win in the last elections in 2007, were the first time in many years that UP gave a party a majority, also thus making her the first Chief Minister in years to complete a five-year term.

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