Yogendra Yadav said his reading was based on his electoral common sense and some experience in reading exit polls over the years. (Press Trust of India file photo)
Former Aam Aadmi Party leader and psephologist Yogendra Yadav today forecast a clear majority for Nitish Kumar-Lalu Prasad's Grand Alliance.
"I think the Grand Alliance is headed for a clear, perhaps even comfortable, majority. If my reading is correct, its tally could go well beyond the highest forecast of 130 seats," he wrote on Facebook.
He, however, said his reading was based on his electoral common sense and some experience in reading exit polls over the years.
Stating the basis of his reading, he said the exit polls were reporting that the difference between the two main rivals is around one to two percentage votes. They also tell that this has been a very polarising election where the upper castes and OBCs (but not SCs) were sharply divided.
"So the sampling and reporting error would work almost entirely against the Grand Alliance (with the exception of BJP's Dalit allies. Assuming the error is around two percent, the findings of all the polls should be adjusted to reduce NDA vote share by two percent points and increase GA by two percent," Mr Yadav said in his post.
"This would dramatically change the balance in favour of the Grand Alliance, which would enjoy a lead of three to five percent over the NDA. In a straight bipolar contest, it could give the Grand Alliance (GA) a clear majority," the former Aam Aadmi Party leader wrote in his Facebook post.
Mr Yadav said the polls suggest that this election has levelled the difference between different regions. In this situation, a small lead in terms of votes would be spread fairly evenly and could yield lots of seats to the leading party.
"Concentration of votes in urban pockets could give NDA big victories in the few urban seats but leave it more vulnerable against the GA in the overwhelmingly rural Bihar," he said.
"As I said, all this is pure speculation, devoid of any fresh evidence or political motives," he wrote in his Facebook post.
Five rounds of polling for the Bihar assembly elections ended on Thursday and the counting of votes will be held on Sunday. The exit polls on Thursday were sharply split to indicate who would win.
While three of the nine exit polls predicted a clear win for the BJP-led alliance and another gave an upper hand to it, five exit polls forecast a narrow or clear majority to the Grand Alliance.