A Big Win For Mamata Banerjee? Unlikely

Fear is the key. Voters in West Bengal are scared. And the fear is palpable. They don't look at you, and they avoid answering any questions related to the election. At most they will tell you that all will be known on counting day, May 19th. They are scared that someone is watching them, hearing what they may say, and they don't want to suffer any consequences. And that, in a sense, sums up the Trinamool's rule in West Bengal. They have copied and improved on the Left Front's culture of monitoring without drastically improving the socio-economic life of then people. But then, as the hotel receptionist said, Five years isn't very long, we must give her (Mamata Banerjee) more time."

A group of villagers sitting with us near an underpass on NH2, opposite the defunct and derelict Tata Motors plant in Gopalnagar, Singur district, say time is something they don't care much about. They are angry. Angry that the Tatas were driven away by Mamata Banerjee and nothing has come to replace the Nano factory. But it takes time for them to voice that anger, they don't know who we are, and need to be convinced of our credentials.

"Sure we got the money for our land, that it is not what we wanted. We wanted jobs, jobs for our children. The plant would have changed the whole area; today, we are worse off than before. All the land on the other side (where the plant is) is now useless. You can't grow anything. It is like rock," says a more forthcoming villager, though he does not want to share his name. 
 For others in the same district, the complaint is that not only was the plant driven away, but promises by the Trinamool of water tanks and roads have not materialised. Pointing to the sky above the village, they say that's where the overhead tank was supposed be, and then looking down the road, ask us to travel further off the highway, and see how bad it is.

If people like these formed the majority of the district, you would expect that the Trinamool has lost the election. And if you were to read the Telegraph newspaper, you would be convinced that Mamata has already lost the state. And that is what is strange. At the beginning of April, when the campaigning began, the conventional wisdom was that the Trinamool would sweep the polls as it did in the general election winning more than 210 assembly segments. This would be a repeat of what it did in its coalition with the Congress in 2011, when it came to power, ending 34 years of Left-front domination. 

But as days have turned to weeks and weeks to a month, the numbers have shrunk after each voting day so that by now, just before the last of the six phases of polling, even Trinamool supporters accept a smaller majority, with a number as low as 160-165 out of 294. And if that is the case, then Mamata, the lady of white sari with a blue border, will be very unhappy. In a sense, it will be a moral defeat. And as much as this will be a defeat for her, it will be a victory for the Jot, the strange Congress-Left Front Alliance that is fighting her. 
 This alliance of convenience, which nobody really believed would deliver, seems to have worked quite well. Sitting in a dingy one-room CPM office in the slum in Garden Reach, Kolkata, local leaders explain that as a cadre party, they have been able to work well with the Congress since they follow orders. The Congress, they say, has fewer workers, but has good local leaders and "we have provided them the ground support they need." 

"We have manned the polling booths. And in areas where our candidates are standing, Congress leaders have campaigned for the alliance. Our votes are coming together," says Raja. 

Garden Reach is an area where the Jot expects to regains lost ground. This predominantly Muslim basti voted in large numbers for the Trinamool in both 2011 and 2014, but there is a sense that support for them has fallen off this time. In an illegally-constructed multiple-storey building, we are told by a syndicate (local business gang) that they control 2,000 votes in this area.

"What we say, they do. Because we look after them," says the young Bihari lieutenant. "And we are not happy with the TMC. They are stopping our 'dhanda'. They send police and municipal people to check what we are doing. The brick kilns have been closing. How will we do business?"

The Muslim vote is important both in urban and rural Bengal as the state has the third-highest proportion of Muslims in the country and more than 140 constituencies have 20% or more Muslim votes. And while TMC supporters concede there has been some erosion in the support for them in these constituencies, it isn't that the whole community has suddenly shifted its votes to the Jot. In fact, as one of them said, in places like Malda, the Congress has traditionally been strong.
 Walking the streets around Park Circus and talking to the predominantly Muslim businessmen and shopkeepers, they echo this view. The TMC has lost support here, but that it isn't a complete switch. Some people admit that they feel let down by the TMC for not doing enough on the ground. "What is the difference, every year it rains and we are in a sea of water up to our knees. For ten years we have been waiting for drainage, but nothing has happened. Even the TMC has done nothing" said a shopkeeper.

"And where are our jobs?" asks another. Jobs is a crucial demand of the Muslim community. They say they don't get government jobs and so what is the use of the TMC, who claim to be helping the community? Having a musical evening (Ghulam Ali's performance) is nice, but this kind of secularism does not feed them. They also feel discriminated against in housing, homes and loans. "Even the modern garbage collection system in Kolkata ignored Muslim areas for a long time," said a political analyst.  

Corruption amongst TMC officials is also a big complaint and one that the TMC leadership recognises as a problem. But worse still, at election time, is the factionalism in the party. Tickets have been given against the advice or liking of local leaders, and they have resorted to boycotting the polling. In some case, they have refused even to man the polling stations, Leaving the official candidate at the mercy of the opposition. But luckily for the TMC, the Jot has a number of "friendly" contests (candidates within the alliance competing against each other), and this should even out the balance.

Economically, there hasn't been a sea change in Bengal. Yes, it has become easier for small business, but big business isn't back. ITC is one of the few corporate giants left in Kolkata, and no one else seems to be coming in. And while Mamata told NDTV that she holds no grouse against the Tatas and will do business with them, no one is sure that the Tatas or any other big business house are ready to return to Bengal.

While the industrial scene is a bit overcast, agriculture in the fertile Gangetic delta with its three crops has been doing well. Large cold storages and rice mills dot the landscape in Burdhwan district and market towns seem more prosperous that those of the Hindi heartland. The TMC scheme Sabuj Sathi with its free cycles for girls has been a success and now boys are getting cycles as well. This and a small annual stipend for going to school and Rs 25,000 for girls above 18 has gone down well. 

Borrowing the colours of Mamata's saris, lamp posts in Kolkata are draped in white and blue Chinese lights, but they don't hide the fact the TMC's slip is showing. And while predictions of their losing power may not be true, the romp to a big victory seems increasingly unlikely. So for the many people outside the state who have been ignoring what has been happening in this election in West Bengal, it may be time to take a closer look. There could be a surprise awaiting.

(Ishwari Bajpai is Senior Advisor at NDTV)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.