Blog: Angry Voters And Divided Opposition In Goa. Who Will Win?

Our little village in Goa is very quiet, full of nature sounds - birds chirping, dogs barking. The only manmade sounds are church bells at dawn, the honk of the poawallah, the fishwallah, and the occasional two-wheeler passing by. So it had been until Wednesday, when the first tempo drove through the village blaring election songs. Until then, the elections could have been on another planet.

By Friday, the "tempo" was up considerably with three vans passing through, some twice. There was even a big political parade at night, a show of strength. And today it was at its noisiest - the blare of speakers drowning nature's sounds, committing the sacrilege of disturbing my siesta with their exhortations.

With Covid restrictions until this week, most of the campaigning has been a low-key walk through Goa's many villages, or through social media and calls. The 'computer' campaigning is big; the minute you visit an internet news site you are attacked by party ads for the Goa assembly election. The BJP and TMC seem to lead in this spend. AAP, too, is very active on social media while the Congress seems to be more restrained, using calls and local contact.

All that changed mid this week.

The artillery arrived on Thursday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi joined Home Minister Amit Shah in Goa, and held a huge rally in the north and continued his attack on the Congress, claiming that Nehru's weakness delayed Goa's independence by 15 years. Arvind Kejriwal, (party call line - Ek Chance Kejriwal) went south and asked how a helipad can be built for the PM in 24 hours , but the bus stop at same place has happened in 20 years. He promised an end to the rampant corruption in Goa, like he did in Delhi (he said it, I didn't). TMC general secretary Abhishek Banerjee was also here, pushing the West Bengal model and hopes of picking up half a dozen seats. And finally, Rahul Gandhi came on Friday and said Modi didn't understand history and was trying to distract people from the failure of the BJP Government.

So, why is everyone here in a small state with just two MPs when they have bigger fish to fry in UP, Uttarakhand and Punjab? Goa punches well above its size; it is the tourism capital of India.

For the BJP, it's a state where it shows its secular credentials, with a 25% Christian population. The BJP has built big bridges with the Christians and once again is fielding more than 25% Christian candidates. But most of all, the BJP does not like to lose power. In 2017, after it trailed the Congress in the assembly election, it moved quickly to trigger defections overnight, in a classic Amit Shah operation, and had a BJP-led government sworn in. This Goa model of big bang buying of MLAs was followed in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, subsequently.

For the Congress, this is an opportunity to wipe out the shame of 2017, and reemerge as the Goa government. With a high level of anti-incumbency, Goa, and perhaps Uttarakhand, are states where they could capture power. Given the failure to win in Kerala, and losing governments in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, the Congress desperately needs a win, and Goa is seen to be the place. When BJP strongman Michael Lobo switched to the Congress, the signal was that the Congress looked like a winner.

The tragedy for the Congress is that like in many other states, its vote share has been steadily declining, from just under 40% votes in 1994 to under 30% in 2017. Meanwhile, the BJP caught up with the Congress in 2002 and has since pulled ahead.

Manohar Parrikar, the late BJP leader and Chief Minister, first consolidated the Hindu vote and then built a coalition with Christians. That they lost in 2017 was not so much because the Congress did anything new, but that Parrikar's mentor and RSS chief ran his own "Hindu party" BBSM, which cut some votes. More importantly, the RSS cadre did not push the BJP as strongly. (1) The BJP came second in 21 seats, including 7 where the margin was below 10% - an average of 1500 votes.

It is the Congress' perceived weakness and the national ambitions of Mamata Banerjee and Kejriwal that has both in the battle. Goa, with its small electorates (average size 20,000) is an ideal place to play them out. AAP tried it the last time but was deeply disappointed, coming in with 6% of the vote. This time, they have gone much bigger and spent more money and really want to establish themselves. Kejriwal's campaign rests on the theme that if you are against the BJP, voting Congress is a waste as they will all join the BJP post-election. The TMC, with its alliance with the old, established MGP, may be of more use to the MGP than to itself, but hopes to be the camel in the tent.

The three fundamental questions that surround this election are - how strong is the anti-incumbency wave; will the angry voter vote strategically to defeat the BJP, or will they scatter their vote; and will non-BJP winners stay loyal to their party or be persuaded to defect.

That there is a strong anti-incumbency wave cannot be doubted. Ten years of the BJP eroded much of its support. Its biggest strength, they claim, are their karyakartas or workers. Political analysts say even the BJP worker is fed up with the BJP. They feel that the BJP is neither a Hindutva party nor the Parrikar Party; it's a rag-tag bag of ex Congressmen with the work culture of the Congress.

That Michael Lobo quit the BJP was a clear indication that he sensed the BJP had lost ground (see his interview with Sreenivasan Jain) and as he said, as a Parrikar loyalist it took a lot to drive him away, but it was time to move away from that party. As a man that "controls" up to 5 seats in north Goa, his departure is a big blow to the BJP.

For the BJP, North Goa is where their strength is. They need to do well here to retain power, and that is what Michael Lobo has helped cut. They are also up against Parrikar's son Utpal in Panaji, the capital, another seat where they win.

And if, as a Goan, you are fed up with the BJP, who do you vote for? Most Goans look at voting in transactional terms. You vote for someone you know, who can deliver what you need, someone you can call and who will at least be here. In a small place like Goa, that's important. Here the Congress and the MGP (TMC ally), in areas they are traditionally strong, have an advantage. The Congress has stressed that its new and younger lot of candidates will be "100% accessible". The AAP list of candidates is a list of unknowns. Will that stop the Goan voter from choosing them or will the anger with all traditional parties drive them to AAP, like in Delhi? That's what Kejriwal is playing for and hoping for.

But three parties seeking to oust the BJP will only split the vote. And such is the fear of the BJP squeezing through because of a divided opposition, that the (Christian) Seminary of Rachol, showing its concern, has issued a video saying, "Divided votes will lead the state into the hands of the corrupt and divisive party". With small parties and independents regularly polling above 20%, the addition of AAP and TMC is a concern.

Finally, Goa has made Haryana's 'Aya Ram Gaya Ram' look like some second division game. Here, in Goa, the tradition of defection comes naturally. It's part of transactional politics. Ideology doesn't exist. What happened in 2017 may have been the biggest coup, and one that continued through the term and well into these elections. Sixty per cent of MLAs- 24 - switched sides! People were chopping and changing parties as if they were playing musical chairs. Aleixo Reginaldo Lourenco left the Congress for the TMC and wanted to return, all in a fortnight; luckily, this time the Congress was strong enough to deny him a seat. He is fighting as an independent.

In fact, the Congress has taken the unusual step of asking all its candidates to go to a temple, church or dargah, depending on their religion, and take an oath not to defect. The AAP has taken a more legal route by asking each candidate to give an affidavit saying so. According to Kejriwal, if one defects, the voters can sue the MLA! The BJP does not feel it has to do this, because they are seen as buyers, not sellers in the market. Unless, as a political commentator put, the BJP is reduced to single digits, which he said is possible, given the anger of the voter.

(Ishwari Bajpai is Senior Advisor at NDTV.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.