In a Yadav dominated constituency:
A Yadav on an RJD ticket vs BJP Yadav = RJD victory = JDU (alliance) victory
A Yadav on a JDU ticket vs BJP Yadav = RJD victory, (with a rider that if the constituency has a higher number of young Yadav voters, the contest will be tough)
A BJP Yadav vs a non-Yadav JDU candidate = BJP (Unless Lalu personally campaigns in this area)
A non-BJP Yadav vs Yadav JDU = JDU victory
A BJP Yadav vs a non-Yadav RJD candidate = RJD victory (Yadavs won't be fooled by the BJP's obvious attempt to get the Yadav vote)
For most, the permutations of caste equations may seem incoherent but in Bihar, there's almost a mathematical precision with which they are calculated. Sitting at a dhaba precariously positioned over an open drain, right across the railway station in Jehanabad, close to the district court, Sudhir Singh, a lawyer by profession, is almost theatrical as he draws out caste alignments and assuredly predicts their chances at electoral victory.
'So now you understand the Yadav vote, let me explain the EBC (Extreme Backward Caste) vote. You see, the EBCs are almost 30% of Bihar's population. Undoubtedly, Nitish has done a lot of work for them but ..' I interrupt Singh from launching into his equations to ask who he will vote for. ''I'm a Rajput, we are almost 6% of Bihar's population, but along with Bhumiyars and Brahmins we are the forward block. All forward castes are going to vote for the BJP. You can be sure of that' - a foregone conclusion in a state where the BJP is called the Bhumiyar Party and can easily be assured of the upper caste vote which is around 12% in the state. (The only correction - Singh gives an exaggerated figure for the Rajput population which is not 6%, but less than 4%).
Another safe conclusion: the JDU alliance has the Muslim vote secure, 16% in the state. At the Imarat-e-Sharia, a prominent Muslim Trust in Patna, General Secretary Maulana Anisur Rahman Qasmi, known to be close to Nitish Kumar, laughed when he sees me: "What are you going to do in this election, there is no Muslim vote for you to chase?" recalling the last state election which had me careering across Darbhanga, Madhubani, Supaul, Araria, Kishenganj, Kathihar, etc. Over tea, Rahman gave us his panoptic analysis: "Muslims in general have a soft spot for Lalu, they trust him. They also appreciate Nitish's work on the ground, especially the Pasmanda, backward castes, who felt nurtured by him. There is a handful of the Ashraf elite family, in cities like Patna, who more out of nostalgia seem to go towards the Congress. All three are together, so the Muslim bouquet is complete." What of the Owaisi factor, I persist. "Not yet, not in these elections. But he's a great orator and the young will be attracted, more so if in the coming years we have more of the Giriraj Singh type politics."
In 2010, when Nitish Kumar won his second term, a frequent analysis, fragile even then, explained Nitish's victory as a triumph of development over caste. Seen today, that conclusion certainly seems to belong to a rather euphoric but fleeting moment in Bihar's political history. In the national election last year, despite praising Nitish's good governance, the Muslims largely didn't vote for him, instead choosing Lalu (with his Congress alliance), as the better bet to challenge Modi at the Centre. And the upper caste support to Nitish in 2010 was always conditional, had less to do with the development record and more to do with his alliance partner, the BJP, called the Bhumiyar Party in the state. "Nitish will continue to pay for breaking Bihar's golden period. With Sushil Modi he brought winds of change, now with Lalu he wants to go back to jungle raj" is a frequent upper-caste refrain. The BJP has played on this sentiment with billboards across Patna warning of a return to "Jungle Raj" (lawlessness) under Lalu.
"What of Lalu Prasad Yadav's claim that what the BJP call jungle raj is actually Mandal Raj Part Two, the thrust of his speech at the Swabhiman rally in Patna?" I throw the question to a now wider crowd of lawyers. Sudhir Singh is joined by his colleague Pramod Sharma who is quick to respond: "Lalu is talking about an old India; he doesn't realize that the youth will vote for the Modi magic. Also, many Yadavs are upset with Nitish, they lost their power in his regime."
The only person who doesn't offer her political opinion is the woman we had gone to meet for another story, Deorani. The only Dalit woman lawyer practicing at the district court of Jehanabad, she waits till we are alone to speak her mind. "Nitish has done more for this state, more for its women than any leader," she says, rattling of Nitish's schemes for women - 50% reservations for women at the Panchayat level, the only state to do so; subsidized housing allotted in the name of the woman; a dramatic thrust on education for girls. "I was the only literate woman in my village, today all the girls breezily cycle their way to school. I believe Narendra Modi was very popular amongst Gujarati women when he was Chief Minister, but let me tell you, I've seen those pictures, they already look like affluent urban women. What Nitish has done is unbelievable. He's got village roads to reach the most wretched Mussahar tolas, he's changed the lives of women, crushed for generations by their caste and their gender."
Will they vote for him, I ask? "Well, the BJP is really trying to split both the Dalit and extremely backward caste as is obvious by the wooing of men like Manjhi, Paswan, Modi's sheen still has some pull, but Lalu, hopefully, will bring the Yadav community to the JDU alliance," is Deorani's response as she admits that the battle is a tough one.
The Yadavs have been the focus of academic Kazuya Nakamizo's study for more than 15 years. A Japanese PHD student from Kyoto University who speaks fluent Hindi, Kazayu's first visit to Bihar was in 1999 to study the big battle between the two Yadav overlords - Sharad and Lalu. He's been tracking the Yadav community and their politics ever since, never missing an election. Quite wisely, he's unwilling to predict the outcome of the elections but feels that Modi does have an appeal amongst the youth that could chip a little at even the Yadav vote.
"Yeh chhipp chhiipp kya hai" thundered Lalu at his residence, surrounded by a motley group which on this night also consists of a Yadav delegation from the Terai region of Nepal. They want Lalu to support their Madhesi movement against what they call the oppression of the hill people of Nepal. Lalu obliges with a comment, and then returns to his earlier indignation. "No one can chhipp the Yadav's away from me, that's wishful thinking on the part of the BJP and rubbish talk on the part of you Dilliwallahs." (Chhipp as chip is now made clear to those who hadn't picked it up). His next target - Pappu Yadav: 'You're a girl so I have to watch my language but that **** Pappu now wants to challenge me. It's because of the likes of him that we were called jungle raj. He's no threat." As his parting shot he says "See, you were doing vikas vikas (development), now you are back asking me about Yadav-Yadav, that's the story!"
A story, for now missing at least from the visual imagery that sweeps across the Patna skyline, where large posters of Nitish Kumar challenge the Prime Minister himself. Lalu's are far less visible. The architect of this, in fact the entire publicity campaign and more for the JDU is a man who says he doesn't appear on camera, though a popular media story. Prashant Kishor's new formation, the Indian Political Action Committee, is full of young professionals, all well under 40, quick with their thinking, quicker with the social media, and unabashed about the switch many of them have made from working for Narendra Modi just over a year ago. "We thought the PM was the best person for the country, but he won't come to Patna. So for Bihar, Nitish Kumar is the best man. Both talk about development and Nitish has already shown the change in Bihar," says Rishi, an investment banker by profession who has been part of Kishor's team for the past two years. His colleague, Vineet, points out that that more than six months ago, the JDU alliance looked beleaguered but now Nitish has confidently been re positioned. "Have you noticed that the PM had already held four rallies in Patna and attended the Kalchakra at Bodhgaya,all before the election dates were announced, surely that's BJP anxiety?"
Targeting the youth with progressive campaigns is important, feels Kishor, in an election where half the electorate is under 40. He also has his favourite theory that a rise in inter-caste marriages, in an indication of a floating population of young voters, who if they can marry out of caste, could vote in any direction, are primed then to play a decisive role. Yet, Kishor is astute enough to know, for now, any electoral theory in Bihar has to be buttressed with the caste numbers at the grassroots, especially when among the youth are emerging voices like those of Mukesh Sahni - their main aim to become caste leaders like Lalu and create caste formations of their own.
Sahni sees himself as the man who will consolidate the Nishad vote in Bihar. At 18, Sahni left the grinding poverty of his fishing family in Darbhanga to look for work in Mumbai. At 34, he has produced a film, done the sets for Bajrangi Bhai Jaan, and owns a company that does events for the likes of the Ambanis. Now he's back in Patna, he says, to consolidate the Nishad vote, which according to him encompasses 23 sub-castes, prominently the Mallahs, 55 surnames which amount to 11% of the 30% extremely backward caste category of the state. He calls himself "Son of Mallah".
In the last elections, Sahni says the Nishad voted for the BJP but are disillusioned. For the past six months, he's done rath yatras across the state and held several Nishad rallies. The one on September 4 at the Azad Maidan in Patna, he claims, led Nitish Kumar to accede to their main demand that they be taken out of the EBC category and be declared a Scheduled Tribe. The crowded EBC category in Bihar has 55 castes which makes the competition for benefits too fierce, but as tribals, Sahni feels they will have a greater share of the pie (a logic that pops up in different regions, for instance, the Gujjars of Rajasthan, who also want to become tribals and move out of the OBC category).
"Now I am determined to work for others in my community. I don't want to contest but I want to ensure there is Nishad in the Parliament and in the State Assembly. We have no political representation. The Rajput population is only 4% but they have two Rajput Ministers." In the last state election, a large section of the Nishad vote went with the BJP. This time Sahni is supporting the JDU alliance. I ask if caste politics was the only way forward for his community. "Let's be clear, in Bihar you can do development, Nitishji did a lot, especially in his first term, but now he has to worry about enough caste support. Even Narendra Modi is hunting for castes." Who will win, is my last question "Whoever manages to get the caste equation right, that's why we have become a little important."
(
Radhika Bordia is Features Editor at NDTV)
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