How Captain Vijayakanth Could Reshape Tamil Nadu Politics This Time

Just like Queen Elizabeth, DMK supremo M Karunanidhi is unwilling to abdicate in favour of his son, MK Stalin. He has, however, decided to crown him heir apparent if the DMK wins next week's election. At 93, this a big step forward for Mr K. Until now, he was unwilling even to name a successor as Chief Minister for fear of alienating his other children and supporters. It seems that sense finally prevailed, since, given his age, potential voters would want to know what would happen to the DMK, if Mr K turns out to be mortal. Now they know. 

In fact, succession has been at the heart of this election, a silent question hanging over both the main Dravidian parties. While the DMK's case is obvious, that of Jayalalithaa and her AIADMK, is less public, but still a big concern. Though much much younger (she is only 68), the general consensus in Tamil Nadu is that she is not well. She's diabetic and her four months in jail in 2014 for a corruption case did her health no favours. Her increased public absence is seen as a sign that all is not well. 
 And even if she is fine, there is the overhang of the Karnataka government's appeal in the Supreme Court against her acquittal in that big corruption case. An adverse judgement for her could see Amma back in jail, and the party without a leader. 

Until yesterday, the questions of  After K/J, Who? were unspoken for fear of reprisal, but they remained in the back of everyone's mind. And it is this concern that is responsible for what has been happening in Tamil Nadu politics for a while. 

Within the DMK, Stalin has used the years of being out of power to consolidate his control over the party's all-powerful district committees. And perhaps it is this control, and the demand from him and supporters for answers about his future, that triggered Karunanidhi's public coronation of his successor. 
 In the AIADMK, there has been talk that stop-gap Chief Minister O Panneerselvam, who stood in when Jayalalithaa was jailed in 2014, had also tried to takeover district committees. In the AIADMK, these panels normally offer a list of potential candidates from which Jayalalithaa chooses. By compiling his list, Panneerselvam felt that if Jayalalithaa were removed again, he would be in control of the party at least in the state legislature. Unfortunately, his plans were squashed by Jayalalithaa, and he has been suddenly been sidelined. 

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But there's something else to consider. A "Third Front" led by Captain Vijayakanth of the DMDK, with the Left parties, Vaiko's MDMK and Thol Thirumavalavan's Dalit party VCK, as well as Anbumani Ramadoss's PMK are both contesting all 234 seats. 

Both the Third Front and the PMK could be seen as positioning themselves for political succession in a world where the two main Dravidian parties no longer have their charismatic available to lead them. 
 Ramadoss is absolutely clear when he says the Dravidian movement has become corrupt and lost its bearings. He argues that these two parties with their giveaways have turned Tamils into "beggars" and people are beginning to realize this.  

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It could also be argued the Dravidian movement which was both anti-religion and about respect has lost its way. In a coming vacuum, he sees the PMK emerging from the shadows and offering a real alternative.  

The quickly cobbled together Third Front led by Captain is also an attempt by these parties to try and get enough of a share to play kingmakers if it's a close result. And this position of kingmaker could be a stepping stone to a much brighter political future. Captain, like Ramadoss, is clear that the two big parties have seen their best days and there is space for his coalition, if not to upset the apple cart, to at least give the constituents some clout by holding a share of power.
 The importance of these small parties cannot be understated. The DMK tried very hard to keep Captain as an ally and it should be remembered that this is the first time that both primary parties don't have large coalitions for the assembly elections. How much an impact they will have was covered in Battleground on Sunday, which showed that if the index of opposition unity falls below 70, the win percentage required by a party declines to the mid-thirties. This is a target that either the DMK or AIADMK could get close to, and it leaves the election quite open. That Jayalalithaa has lost ground is clear: corruption, failure of governance during the floods last year and inaccessibility have taken this toll. But voters haven't forgotten the DMK's last tern in power which was used to grab a lot of land. Even Stalin has apologized for this and said it will not happen again. Now add the Third Front and the PMK to the pot, and the picture becomes more confused.

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If it hadn't been for the 44% Jayalalithaa got in the 2014 General Election, she would have been written off much earlier. But now it would seem her chances of breaking the tradition of five years in followed by five years out of Tamil politics are much lower than it was when the elections were called. 

(Ishwari Bajpai is Senior Advisor at NDTV)

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