Upsets happen. Not very often, but they do. And in this collection of state elections, the big upset would be the BJP missing a fourth consecutive win in Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan is being given by pollsters to the Congress; Chhattisgarh now has a joker in the pack, Ajit Jogi, newly allied with Mayawati, for the Congress and the BJP to contend with; in Madhya Pradesh, Chief Minister Shivraj Chouhan is campaigning as if his life depends on it, but his party seems more sanguine - Prime Minister Narendra Modi is only speaking 11 times in the state compared to 21 addresses in the recent election in Karnataka and a desperate 34 in Gujarat.
Perhaps that is because the numbers seem stacked against the Congress. In the last election in 2013, they got whipped 165 to 58, a mauling nearly as bad as what followed a year later in the general election. A look at the BJP's strengths could explain their confidence.
For the Congress to win, it needs to firstly hold onto all the 58 seats they have; many of these they won with a very thin margin. Then it needs to overcome the overall BJP margin of victory of 7.5% to capture the extra 58 seats that would give them the magic 116 (halfway mark).
That means the Congress has to manage a uniform swing of 4-5% away from the BJP - not impossible and not unheard of. Assuming an average constituency voter size of 2 lakhs with a turnout of 70%, it means getting 4,000-5,000 people to switch sides. When you look at it that way, it seems doable.
But the BJP rightly claims to have delivered progress. What Chouhan chants at his rallies is "In 15 years, we have done more than the Congress did in 55!" And his supporters roar in appreciation. He mocks the Congress, telling his quite supportive late-night audience in Jabalpur, in the eastern part of the state, that the reason the Congress is angry is that they "have no gaddi (seat of power) to make money from, they are angry because we have given you electricity, angry because we have waived electricity bills for 77 lakh families."
Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is running for a record fourth consecutive term
Of course his claim that he has lifted MP from "BIMARU" (sick) status to a fully developed state is a bit of a stretch given that its annual per capita income of Rs 75,000 trails Chhattisgarh by almost Rs 20,000.
But from girls in free uniforms riding to schools on government-given cycles to good roads and improving infrastructure, there are plenty of signs of Chouhan's accomplishments. In a small hamlet outside Shahpura in Mandla district (near Jabalpur), Naresh Gonda, a landless labourer says "The BJP is ahead...they have done a lot of work, cutting machine, diesel pumps...and they are giving LPG connections, even though I haven't got one. Most villages have proper concrete roads, 24-hour electricity. Many have piped water.
The Congress is going it alone in Madhya Pradesh after seat sharing talks with Mayawati fell through
The infrastructure may look good but often suffers from inadequate management. In Umariya Choube (about 20 km from Jabalpur), there is a well-constructed clinic with two small wards and a couple of doctors' rooms, but it is badly maintained and manned. Schools suffer from the same problem - no teachers or one teacher for five standards. The better-off villagers opt for private schools.
Roads vary in quality; you can go from a world-class highway to one that reduces you to 10 km an hour in a matter of minutes.
Farmer anger over support prices blew up last year in Mandsaur, and despite Chouhan's best efforts, the lollipop he offered of meeting the difference between the price paid to the farmer and the MSP, haven't overcome the problem of delayed payments and low prices. In Choube, a Congress-dominated village, farmer anger is very visible. And there is anger over the lack of investment, the lack of job creation. Young men just hang around villages doing little.
The other trick problem for Chouhan has been the centre's amendment to the ST/SC Atrocities Act which reinstated the immediate arrest of those accused of discriminating against Dalits. Chouhan, facing an upper caste backlash, has dithered, saying the Act was "not misused and no one will be arrested before an investigation." That has pleased no one, especially the SC/STs, whom the BJP has carefully weaned away form the Congress. In 2013, they swept 75% of the nearly 80 seats reserved for backward castes. Now, that can't be taken for granted.
Chouhan's lonely fight to save MP places him against a galaxy of Congress leaders: Kamal Nath (state president), Jyotiraditya Scindia, Digvijaya Singh (former Chief Minister) and Ajit Singh (Leader of the Opposition) who seemingly have stopped their infighting and seem to be drawing good audiences, which doesn't necessarily translate into votes, but there was much of muchness between the crowd Chouhan drew in Jabalpur and Kamal Nath outside the same town. Nath also claims that the Congress has strengthened its organization at the grassroots - one of its biggest weaknesses - and this will ensure the 2013 disaster does not repeat.
And finally, consider this: the BJP has a problem of too much support. It has too many "wasted votes" in seats that it has won by huge majorities.
Which means that a lot of the 45% vote share it got in the last election wasn't evenly spread as the table above shows and all the votes it got over 50% were a complete waste, as were many of the those between 45-50%. This phenomenon of "over-vote" explained why Donald Trump lost the popular vote to Hilary Clinton; she swept states with a high number of voters like New York and California. So you could conceivably have a very, very close fight and even a Congress majority in the House despite the BJP ahead in votes. This explains why some polls show the Congress ahead but neck-and-neck in vote share. It assumes that the BJP will hold its traditional bastions, but lose the election.
(Ishwari Bajpai is Senior Advisor at NDTV.)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.