Blog: In UP's Polarisation Laboratory, Decoding A Lower Voter Turnout

Phase 1 polling in UP is over. This was the polarisation laboratory that won BJP big in 2014, '17 and '19. Despite an increase in the number of voters, the polling percentage in the 58 seats was around 60 percent, down 2 percent in comparison to 2017.

The story in Muzaffarnagar was same, yet different. Muzaffarnagar's six Vidhan Sabha seats polled 67 per cent in 2017. While the percentage here too went down by 2 per cent, it still remained among the highest in the region. Here's a break up.

Khatauli was the highest at 69, yet two percent behind its 2017 total. Meerapur, where despite a BJP wave, the winning margin for the BJP candidate was just a little under 200, the polling percentage was 68, only 1.5 percent lower than 2017.

Muzaffarnagar Sadar (city), which has a sizeable Muslim population, almost 40 percent, saw the largest dip in voting. From 64.5 percent in 2017 to 61 in 2022.

Charthawal and Budhana bucked the trend by registering a 0.5 and 0.2 per cent increase in voting at 67.69 and 66 percent respectively.

The number crunching become significant because of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's early morning utterance on polling day, the 10th of February.

It was meant to be an appeal to vote in large numbers. It ended up becoming a critique of 2 Indian states and a centrally administered union territory.

"I have to tell you something from my heart. A lot of wonderful things have happened in these five years. Beware! If you miss, the labour of these five years will be spoiled. It would not take much time for Uttar Pradesh to become Kashmir, Kerala and Bengal," Yogi Adityanath said in the video.

While an interstate battle began between Kerala and UP, understanding the impact on the ground seems to be very important.

The lower voter turnout in the first phase seems to be an interesting trend that could mean a number of things. Either it meant no great appeal in the incumbents, it could also mean no wave of voting for the opposition.

So, despite a dip across the first phase, how does one read the slight increase in voting in two Vidhan Sabha segments in Muzaffarnagar - and also, a very marginal dip yet high voting in the remaining four?

Is Muzaffarnagar undoubtedly the polarised capital of West Uttar Pradesh?

Outside the Ch Chotu Ram College voting centre, we noticed an old uncle walk up to each news channel crew and chide them for being biased. He then chanced upon the NDTV microphone and said, "I want to say something". This is what he said:

"A political party is not letting the wounds of 2013 riots heal. They want it to hurt. The comment that UP will become Kerala and Bengal is nothing but desperate polarisation. If we become Kerala, we will actually have a 100 percent literacy rate. Bengal's industrialisation is way better than UP. If they continue this polarisation, then the country will become weaker," said the Muzaffarnagar resident, Gyan Kumar.

So, what was the biggest issue in this election according to him?

'Kisan' (farmer), Mr Kumar said. "The manner in which the farmer was insulted in the name of the laws. They were called Pakistani and Khalistani. Farmer is not getting his due price for produce - the farmer will seek revenge. And now, for appeasing brahmins, the killer of farmers in Lakhimpur is out on bail. This is a result of a terrible manner in which the prosecution presented its case in the court," Mr Kumar added.

A little distance away, outside the Kisan Union office - where we had stopped to record a show with local BJP and Samajwadi Party leaders, the battle lines over the Chief Minister's Kashmir and Kerala comment were drawn.

"We have not forgotten how Hindu exodus happened in Kashmir. Or how appeasement of one particular community is happening in Kerala and Bengal. This is what the CM meant and I think people understand it too," said Muzaffarnagar BJP leader Harish Ahlawat.

He was instantly cornered by Gaurav Jain of the Samajwadi Party: "That's all you want to do. Talk about incidents many decades ago and escape accountability of the last five years. People have seen through this and they will not give in to this game."

Mr Ahlawat then questioned the Samajwadi Party why it has not fielded a Muslim candidate from Muzaffarnagar. His point was that the Samajwadi Party also realises what the BJP is saying and is playing the same game.

Mr Jain replied saying that this is the leader's prerogative and changes nothing on the ground. He said there's no resentment against the Samajwadi Party among Muslims.

A little distance away, a man patiently listening to this debate jumped right in. "Theek bola Yogi. There used to be open chain snatching and abduction during 2012-2017. Not a single incident has happened since then."

The Samajwadi leader hit back, citing a number of incidents in Muzaffarnagar in the last five years.

Muzaffarnagar Journalist Dilshad summed it up for them: "The BJP has somewhat succeeded in sending this message among all that law and order is better managed under the Yogi regime."

Samajwadi Party leader countering that by saying that Akhilesh' rule gave UP police state of the art infrastructure.

The conversation ended with Dilshad questioning both Samajwadi and BJP leaders on what have they done to address the concerns of riot victims living in camps - the fact that they are still not back home. Both mumbled a response but it appeared unsatisfactory.

Institutionally, the Samajwadi Party is maintaining a distance from any polarising debate. Party spokespersons unofficially tell us that they have been asked to refrain from any Hindu-Muslim, Hijab, or Kerala - Kashmir debate.

Perhaps the assessment is that the BJP shouldn't get a play on this front - at least till Feb 14, the second phase of West UP elections. Is silence a good strategy?

The slightly lower voting in Phase 1, but a marginally higher voting in Muzaffarnagar leaves even the politicians confused.

Farm leader Rakesh Tikait, who is from Muzaffarnagar, summed this up. "Ye Hindu Muslim waala stadium to ab tuut gaya hai bhai. Ab is pitchpe balling naa hogi."

(Sanket Upadhyay is Executive Editor, NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.