Modi Has Pak On Back Foot, What Should Follow Now

In the summer of 1711, the French mathematician, Pierre Montmort, tried to solve a real-life gambling game of cards between two players. His aim was to work out the expectations made by each of the players and predict the number of moves needed to win the pool within a specified set of games. Thus, Game Theory was born.

Such a war 'game' would have been drawn up by the strategists ahead of India's airstrikes on February 26 as well. Armed action against a nuclear-armed nation is a sort of a gamble. It can be taken only that far. And, on Day One, it looked like PM Modi had the entire game-plan ready to checkmate Pakistan in just a few moves.

First came the big surprise. Pakistani military strategists would have expected targeted strikes against abandoned forward posts along the LoC. The airstrikes deep inside Pakistani territory was so unexpected that the Pakistan Air Force didn't even have time to scramble its jets.

The next step was going to be crucial, and PM Modi played it beautifully. Instead of political statements, or even a press briefing by the Air Force, the government put forward India's Foreign Secretary. It was a move calculated to push the Balakot airstrikes straight into the international diplomatic arena.

The words, describing the attack, were also carefully curated. It was an "intelligence-led, non-military pre-emptive operation". Each part of this statement was significant. Intelligence-led to suggest that it was driven by specific information and it wasn't an act of general aggression. Non-military because it didn't target Pakistan's military installations or any civilians. Pre-emptive because it was to act against new plans by Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorists to attack India.

Almost immediately, diplomats based in Delhi were briefed about India's action and told that we had no further plans of escalating the conflict. Statements from diplomats showed that India's strategy was working. Most of them backed India and asked Pakistan to crack down on terrorists at home. Others called for restraint, which was exactly India's own public stand.

Modi himself was careful, not to indulge in excessive chest-thumping. In the afternoon, when he addressed frenzied crowds at a rally in Rajasthan's Churu, he did begin with a rousing patriotic couplet. But, after that, he dialed down the rhetoric even though it was clear the BJP cadre in the audience wanted more. Off the record, BJP leaders admitted that they had been told to keep mum on the airstrikes and let officials speak.

The strategists knew that Pakistan was bound to retaliate. After all, as the joke goes, other countries have armies, the Pakistani army has a country. And, the Pakistani defence establishment wasn't going to sit back and accept this mortifying humiliation. The first sabre-rattling came when Imran Khan called a meeting of the National Command Authority, whose main task is to oversee Pakistan's nukes. It was a thinly-veiled threat to India and the global community that Pakistan wouldn't stop at conventional warfare alone.

All this would have fallen well within the war games drawn up by our strategists. Even Pakistan's first military moves would have been anticipated though they were extremely belligerent. Indian fighter jets were in constant readiness to counter any attempts by Pakistani warplanes to cross into Indian territory. That's exactly what Pakistan did, flying F-16s across the LoC on February 27, with plans to bomb Indian military targets and fuel dumps.

But, even the best laid plans can suddenly go south. An Indian Airforce Mig-21 Bison chased a Pakistani F-16, managed to shoot it down, but in the process got hit by anti-aircraft guns from across the LoC. The brave pilot crashed into Pakistan-held territory and was taken captive.

In the world of smartphone cameras and social media, his videos surfaced within minutes. In fact, an official handle of the Pakistan Army also issued the video, only to delete it later, when it became clear that this was a violation of the Geneva Convention. By then, it had already achieved the psy-ops objective.

For people in India, it was a heartbreaking sight. To many, the pilot became the face of this conflict. It brought home the horrors of war, even to those who had been baying for blood a few hours earlier. As the videos went viral, people marveled at the Wing Commander's equanimity in the face of imminent danger.

Pakistan's psy-ops continued with the release of a second video in which the pilot is seen praising the Pakistani army officers for treating him well. It was aimed not at Indians, but at the international community. It was an attempt to portray India as the aggressor and Pakistan as a reasonable, peace-loving nation.

Unfortunately for Pakistan, it suffers from a global confirmation bias. Everyone and their aunt believes Pakistan is a failed state that fosters terrorism. No amount of image-building can change opinions overnight.

However, the international community knows Pakistan needs a face-saver. No one expects its army to accept defeat and cede domestic power. Imran Khan has already been forced to make the first call for peace and talks. He needs a fig-leaf to be able to rein-in Pakistan's bloodthirsty generals.

The world is now looking to India to reciprocate. It is also the time for India to drive home the advantage through diplomatic initiative. As this author had written earlier, one option could be to align more directly with the US and offer it the same strategic options that Pakistan has been giving. At the same time, PM Modi should agree to talks with a specific pre-condition: a UN-monitored dismantling of the overground terror networks within Pakistan and complete freeze on their financial assets.

The subcontinent has been sitting on a nuclear powder-keg which has kept India and Pakistan from fighting full-scale conventional wars. It is essential that India act quickly to de-escalate the situation before things go out of control. After all, one of the key assumptions in traditional game theory is that all players are rational actors. In the case of the Pakistan army, that assumption may not be entirely valid.

(Aunindyo Chakravarty was Senior Managing Editor of NDTV's Hindi and Business news channels. He now anchors Simple Samachar on NDTV India.)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.