Kasganj, a small town in West-Central Uttar Pradesh, has a unique history. The party that wins Kasganj takes power in Lucknow. Barring aberrations, this has been the tradition for four decades. The town votes in Phase 3 of the UP election on Sunday.
Which way will Kasganj go this time?
But first, a refresher of Kasganj's history.
In 1952, Congress' Baburam Gupta won Kasganj and the Congress formed the government in UP. In 1957, Congress' Kalicharan Agarwal won Kasganj and the Congress came to power again.
In 14 of 17 elections in Uttar Pradesh, the voters of Kasganj have accurately predicted the winner.
In 1977, Janata Dal's Netram Singh won in Kasganj and came to power in UP. Congress' Manpal Singh won the 1980 polls and the party ruled UP again. The same candidate and same party repeated in 1985. In 1989, however, Janata Dal's Govardhan Singh won Kasganj and Mulayam Singh Yadav's then Janata Dal formed the government.
In 1991, a year before the Babri demolition, BJP's Netram Singh won Kasganj again. And Kalyan Singh formed a BJP government in the state. In 1996, Netram won again and a BJP-BSP government was formed.
In 2002, Samajwadi Party's Manpal Singh won Kasganj but the BJP-BSP formed government. However, Mayawati's government ran out of luck with defections to the Samajwadi Party, and Mulayam Singh Yadav came to power.
In 2007, the BSP's Hasrat Ullah Khan won Kasganj and Mayawati came back to power in the state. Manpal Singh from the Samajwadi Party won in 2012 and Akhilesh Yadav formed his government that year. And in 2017, the BJP's Devendra Rajput won Kasganj and the party took power with Yogi Adityanath at the helm.
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav during a rally in Uttar Pradesh's Kasgaj.
Samajwadi voters in the district feel that their 85-year-old candidate Manpal Singh will win and Kasganj will maintain its record. The octogenarian told NDTV there's a noticeable wave (aandhi) he can detect with his experience as a politician. He feels the youth are upset with the BJP as there are no government jobs and opportunities.
The BJP's Devendra Rajput obviously does not agree. He believes people have seen good roads and proper electricity supply. He also feels free ration during Covid really helped the government earn goodwill.
"Sab warg mere saath hain. Pichli baar 50,000 se jeeta tha, abki 62,000 se (all sections of voters are with me. I won by 50,000 votes last time, this time, I will win by 62,000," the MLA declared, predicting a very specific vote margin.
On the ground, the mood among residents is mixed. One cannot help but notice the heavy tilt towards the BJP.
"Unka naara hai yeh nayi SaPaa ki nayi hawaa hai. Sach yeh hai ki yeh wahin sapaa hai aur wahin hawaa hai (their slogan is this is new SP and a new wave. The truth is, it is the same SP and the same wave)," said a trader in the context of law and order. He works in a market next to the railway station.
The district has three assembly segments. But the bellwether seat is Kasganj Sadar. We went to the Soraun area of the town, which has a substantial Brahmin population. The BSP claims Brahmins have been persecuted in this regime.
But residents have nothing but praise for the BJP.
"The Soraun area of Kasganj is important to Hindus. It is an important pilgrimage spot for Hindus and yet it was not declared one. We gave our vote to Mayawati and Akhilesh but they did not do it. Only the BJP government post 2017 gave Soraun the space it deserves as a teerth sthaan. Our vote is with the BJP," one resident told us. A group that had gathered at the spot by the Soraun Kasganj ghat nodded in agreement.
PM Modi during a rally in Uttar Pradesh's Kasgaj.
One got a sense that this was more to do with Yogi and Modi and less about the local MLA's popularity.
In another neighbourhood, the picture very different.
"We voted BJP in 2017 and that has only made matters worse for us. They keep talking about improving law and order. Goondas still exist - they have just attached themselves to the BJP," a man said near the Kasganj Bazaar.
"Naukri nahin hai," shouted someone at Akhilesh Yadav's rally. The rally was attended by members of the Muslim and Lodh community. The Samajwadi Party here is in an alliance with a smaller party called the Mahaan Dal.
The SP hopes that a good alliance, the support of Muslims and the presence of a six-time MLA who did not contest here the last time gives them a great shot at power.
So will Kasganj prove true to its legend?
Kasganj is less of a battle between MLAs and more between Chief Ministers - Yogi Adityanath and Akhilesh Yadav.
Going just by the candidate, SP has the edge. But the BJP's booth management and mobilisation are legendary, like everywhere else.
(Sanket Upadhyay is Executive Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.
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