Surat, the diamond city in the south of Gujarat, votes on December 1. For any party in Gujarat, winning Surat is important. Multiple factors are at play in this city and the results are often surprising.
A hub of the diamond industry, textile trade, education, a thriving NRI population and the influential Patidar community, Surat offers many voting configurations. That is why in 2017, it was a huge surprise for some when the BJP pulled off a spectacular win in Surat despite massive protests by traders against GST (Goods and Services Tax) and notwithstanding the Patidar agitation for quota, centred in the city.
The BJP scooped 14 of Surat's 16 seats and the Congress managed two, in the tribal pockets.
It will not be wrong to conclude that at a time when the BJP's vote share was declining, and the party was reduced to double digits in the Gujarat assembly, it performed best in the most aggressively antagonistic region.
What makes the contest interesting in Surat is the entry of AAP, especially after its early success in the city's municipal elections. AAP's Gujarat president, 33-year-old Gopal Italia, is also a contestant from Surat's Katargam seat.
Italia, along with Hardik Patel, were the face of the Patidar agitation. While Hardik Patel moved to the BJP, Italia is trying his luck in AAP. I met him on the campaign trail.
What one notices first about Gopal Italia is his imposing height, and a handshake that completely wraps your hands.
I could not help but sneak in a height reference in my question. "Your opposition would say that your claims are as tall as you are. And tall claims run the risk of remaining unfulfilled," I said.
He grinned: "Logon ko hamaari imaandaari aur sachai dikh rahi hai. Ab woh Congress-BJP ka fix match nahi khelenge."
AAP's Arvind Kejriwal also campaigned in Surat along with Bhagwant Mann. The party knows that if it wants to make any impact in the state, Surat is the gateway.
The BJP's entire campaign hinges on "reminding" people how the party has ensured business runs smoothly - smart move to talk business in a city obsessed with business.
Many prosperous textile traders in Surat, who occupy offices in huge buildings lining a prominent road, are actually first-generation migrants. These traders set up factories two or three decades ago. They even hired migrant workers from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand.
While the traders praise the BJP - at least publicly - the labourers they hire crave better facilities, better health insurance, job security ... Many of these labourers went back to their villages during Covid. They all came back at the first chance.
We visited the Heera Bazaar, or Diamond Market. One look and you feel you have entered the Mumbai chawls. Or a gali in old Delhi.
But the little offices filling every building have men who carry diamonds worth crores in their pockets. Many of these diamond traders were apprehensive in 2017 about GST. But they were never very troubled then and aren't now either.
"I am very happy with our office in this narrow gali. We are all here and it gives us a sense of security. A bigger, spread out office may not be to my liking. The BJP is fine. At least in terms of policy, we have a government which largely offers stability. Do not know about others," said one diamond trader.
Many of them waited for hours to welcome their candidate Harsh Sanghvi, the Minister of State for Home in the state - a position once held by Amit Shah.
As traders and supporters carried Sanghvi on their shoulders and showered him with rose petals, it was clear that these crorepati diamond traders were not looking to extract any political change.
For the Congress, there is very little buzz in the city despite Rahul Gandhi's rally on Monday, during which he spoke about tribals and tribal rights. Can the grand old party match the histrionics of AAP leaders, or the sheer brute force of the BJP's carpet bombing? On Wednesday, JP Nadda, Amit Shah and even Yogi Adityanath were campaigning in the city.
(Sanket Upadhyay is Consulting Editor, NDTV Group)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.