At Lucknow's Vikramaditya Marg, Mulayam Singh Yadav's house and the new residence of Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav share a wall. On Sunday night, hours before a meeting called by Mulayam Singh, this wall represented a divide that father and son may not even be planning to bridge. The pale half-moon was positioned right between the two white bungalows.
For those inside the two most powerful addresses in Uttar Pradesh, it was like no other night. Especially after what transpired on Sunday. Members of the Samajwadi Party's first parivar had inflicted injuries on each other through surgical strikes. The father vs son, uncle vs nephew and uncle vs uncle war had ended, perhaps permanently, the Samajwadi Party's united-combined political equity.
Suddenly, Mulayam Singh emerged from his house and told the waiting media teams: "I won't say anything today. I will speak tomorrow."
I have known Mulayam Singh since 1989. He was then a rising regional satrap riding the growing might of backward voters, especially Yadavs, and the anti-Rajiv Gandhi campaign led by Congress rebel VP Singh after the Bofors scam. He would walk faster than anyone. Recount stories of how he was the first graduate from a Yadav family in and around his village Saifai. His day used to begin early and during morning walks he would make a pit stop at the makeshift
akhara and grapple with the practicing
pehelwans. Soon he moved into the Chief Minister's office. And from there to the Defence Minister's room on Raisina Hill in Delhi.
In March 2012 his party won a decisive mandate and he told his 38-year-old son that he will be chief minister of India's politically most crucial state.
Anyone who knew Mulayam well or just knew about him had one common perception - the diminutive political dynamo was always agile and had the five moves of doom (a combination of moves wrestlers use to pin down their opponents.)
He has done it so many times in his career. The CPI was his ally in the 1990s. He split his party and the Left's presence in Uttar Pradesh is history now.
In 1990, he ordered firing on
kar sevaks or volunteers who were part of the BJP's Ram janmabhoomi agitation and earned the long-term support of Muslims.
He allied with Kanshi Ram of the BSP in 1993. The SP-BSP dream alliance won. Mulayam Singh became Chief Minister. On June 2 1995, the BSP announced withdrawal of support to the government. Samajwadi strongmen allegedly attacked BSP leader Mayawati - held her hostage in Room no. 1 of the UP state guest house in Lucknow.
In the summer of 1999, the Vajpayee government lost a trust vote by one vote - that of Congress MP Girdhar Gamang - the sitting Chief Minister of Orissa. Congress president Sonia Gandhi met President KR Narayanan and told him she has 272 (the halfway mark in the Lok Sabha) and there are more to come. Mulayam scuttled the Congress bid for power.
In 2003, he used his controversial friend Amar Singh to engineer a split in the BSP to come to power. In 2008, he deftly changed stand and helped Dr Manmohan Singh's trust motion in Parliament after the Left pulled out over the India-US nuclear deal.
But Sunday was different. The challenger is his son. His moves can cause deep damage to the party he created 25 years ago.
When he meets his party lawmakers on Monday, what will Mulayam the wily
pehelwan-turned- "Netaji" do?
I may go wrong on this. I am taking a risk as predicting Mulayam Singh Yadav carries a statutory warning. To ring-fence myself, I will call this the best case scenario in the Samajwadi's worst hour.
On Sunday, when son Akhilesh Yadav pressed the button to eject his uncle Shivpal Yadav from the cabinet, Mulayam Singh was furious. Sources say the SP patriarch was distraught and had tears in his eyes. While speaking to RLD's Ajit Singh on the phone, he complained about his son's betrayal.
Mulayam Singh could have dealt a stinging blow to the camp led by Akhilesh Yadav by expelling his son from the party. He didn't. Perhaps because that would make Akhilesh a martyr in the eyes of voters who have developed a perception that the young Chief Minister is a "good man" rendered ineffective by "his family men".
Expulsion may actually free Akhilesh to form his outfit without the burden of the negative perceptions about the SP or its government. Mulayam Singh would be left with the old guard and his uncharismatic brother Shivpal Yadav. On Sunday, a show of strength called by Akhilesh saw 185 of the 240-odd party legislators showing up. Shivpal Yadav had less than 10 at his home. In the Rajya Sabha, where the party has 19 MPs, only six are with the anti-Akhilesh faction. So Mulayam Singh opted to fire a warning shot - expelled his cousin Ram Gopal Yadav, who is his son's key advisor.
So will Mulayam Singh expel his son on Monday and use the presence of lawmakers to colour the decision as the party's democratic will? The answer - against general perception - is perhaps no.
I feel he may go for a bloodless coup.
Since 2012, on several occasions, he has criticised his son's stint as Chief Minister.
Insiders say Mulayam Singh is fighting for relevance as a new leadership emerges. His brother Shivpal wants Akhilesh out of the Chief Minister's office; working under his nephew was always unacceptable. The Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister's opposition to Amar Singh led to his expulsion from the party. Akhilesh's exit will strengthen Amar Singh's position. Will be sweet revenge.
I feel Mulayam Singh may engineer a demand for him to replace his son as Chief Minister. At today's meeting, as part of a script authored by him, a senior leader could read out a "resolution" asking Mulayam Singh to take over as Chief Minister "to save the party".
This will pin Akhilesh and his faction down. Akhilesh may have rebelled against his father but he has targeted his uncle and his men. On Sunday, he sacked four ministers but didn't touch the controversial mining minister Gayatri Prajapati as he has the backing of his step-mother and step-brother.
Akhilesh has avoided attacking his father and has only perhaps needled him. While meeting lawmakers and later, he said: "Netaji is my leader and father. I will serve him for the rest of his life." He indicated that he won't go against his father publicly or split the party - that he would only play the victim card.
If Mulayam Singh says 'yes' to becoming Chief Minister, Akhilesh will have to say "aye aye Netaji". Again, as part of the script, he may be asked to campaign for the party like he did in 2012. Akhilesh may not mind that. He can draw strength from the campaign and regain the aura of a popular SP leader who took on the old guard. He also has time and age on his side.
During a late night dinner discussion with top bureaucrats, I proposed my theory. An old Uttar Pradesh hand quipped, "What you are proposing sounds like a plot. If this happens, the ongoing roller coaster in SP since June will be called a drama to shed anti-incumbency."
Despite fearing I may be wrong, and that Mulayam Singh may just ask all leaders to sit and sort out their differences, I told him, "A lot has happened since 2012...much more than computer-hating Mulayam Singh's son Akhilesh distributing 19 lakh laptops to students." That may just save my skin.
(Rahul Shrivastava is Senior Editor, Political Affairs NDTV 24x7)Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.