Stock Market News: The total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies fell from Rs 4,72,62,167 crore (Friday's close) to Rs 4,67,47,788 crore (3:25 pm Monday). Read full report here

1. Heavyweight Bank Stocks Drag The Market
2. Crude Oil Prices Remain A Major Concern
3. Foreign Investors Continue To Pull Money Out

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Share Market Today: Weakness in heavyweight private banks, persistent foreign investor outflows and crude oil prices kept investors on edge. Read full report here

Zetwerk Manufacturing Businesses Ltd.'s initial public offering (IPO) saw its qualified institutional buyers (QIB) portion subscribed 1.32 times at 1:40 PM on Day 3, while overall subscription full subscribed.

The institutional response builds on the company's ₹2,251.23 crore anchor book, which attracted 99 investors, including leading domestic and international institutions.

Zetwerk Manufacturing Businesses initial public offering (IPO) saw its qualified institutional buyers (QIB) portion subscribed 1.32 times at 12 noon on Day 3, while overall subscription stood at 0.96 times.

The institutional response builds on the company's Rs 2,251.23 crore anchor book, which attracted 99 investors, including leading domestic and international institutions.

Tarun Singh, Founder & MD, Highbrow Securities

SEBI's paper does something bigger than tidy up the rules. It quietly accepts that India's real IPO market is a mid-market one. Of the 735 larger IPOs SEBI studied over the last three years, about seven in ten came at a market cap of Rs 1,000 crore or less. Under this proposal every one of them would be an SME listing. So SME would no longer be a junior board. It would become the main door for most Indian companies going public.

The platform has earned that role. Close to 1,500 companies have listed on it, nearly one in four has already moved up to the mainboard, and together they are worth about Rs 4.7 lakh crore today against roughly Rs 40,000 crore raised. That is a feeder system doing exactly what it was built to do.

The signs were already there when SEBI brought in net worth based categories for merchant bankers, with Rs 50 crore for Category I and Rs 10 crore for Category II. That was about preparing better capitalised, better qualified bankers for a future of bigger mid-market issues. This SME playbook is that future. The first net worth milestone falls at the end of this year, almost exactly when these SME rules could come in. A Rs 3 crore average profit test, 500 allottees and a one share trading lot would lift issuer quality and let ordinary investors trade freely. With compulsory underwriting and market making gone, merchant bankers will have to earn their place through judgement, not balance sheet.

But regulation can only open the door. Mutual funds hardly take part in SME issues today, and without them the 75 percent QIB route will stay narrow. Institutional mandates have to catch up with SEBI, and that is the next reform. This financial year will show how far it goes and what it means for the wider economy, especially for growth companies from Tier 2 and Tier 3 centres. These are very exciting times ahead.

Chandragupt Prakash Mangal, Managing Director, Mangalam Worldwide Limited (MWL)

"The India-New Zealand FTA is an important step towards creating more competitive market access for Indian engineering and stainless steel manufacturers. The elimination of duties on iron and steel products can improve the price competitiveness of Indian exports and create opportunities to expand the presence of high-spec industrial products in New Zealand. For manufacturers with established global capabilities, diversifying into newer trade corridors will be increasingly important to building resilient export businesses amid changing global trade dynamics." 

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Gaurav Garg, Head - Research, Lemonn

Gold and silver are trading higher as easing crude oil prices and declining US Treasury yields help reduce inflation concerns and support precious metals. Gold is also benefiting from renewed buying interest, while investors remain focused on upcoming US economic data and Federal Reserve interest-rate guidance. Crude oil has declined following the US decision to ease certain restrictions on Russian oil-related trade, raising expectations of additional fuel supply in global markets. However, geopolitical tensions and continued risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain important supply-side concerns and could limit further downside in oil prices. The Indian rupee has strengthened against the US dollar, supported by recent RBI measures and market intervention. However, continued volatility in crude oil prices and foreign investment flows remain key factors for the rupee's near-term direction.

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Harish Vatnani, Head of Trade, ZebPay

BTC/USDT is currently trading around $82,635 on the daily chart and is consolidating after a strong upward move from the $63,000-$65,000 region toward $87,000. After facing selling pressure near $87,000, the price has started moving sideways, indicating a temporary pause as buyers and sellers compete for control. The black horizontal line near $87,000 represents major resistance, while the blue zone between $80,300 and $84,000 marks the current trading range. The upper boundary near $84,000 is immediate resistance, and $80,300 is an important support level. If BTC breaks above $84,000, it could move toward $86,000-$87,000, whereas a breakdown below $80,300 could push the price toward $78,000-$76,000, where previous support is located.

The volume show that the earlier rally was supported by stronger trading activity, while volume has generally decreased during the recent sideways movement. This suggests that buying momentum has slowed and the market is waiting for a fresh move. A breakout above resistance accompanied by increasing green volume would strengthen the bullish outlook, while a breakdown below support with rising red volume could indicate stronger selling pressure. Overall, BTC is currently range-bound with a neutral short-term outlook and a slight bullish bias as long as $80,300 holds. The next significant move will likely depend on which side of the current range breaks with stronger volume.

Another important observation is that BTC recently faced rejection near $87,000 and has been forming smaller candles within the current range, suggesting indecision and a slowdown in price momentum. The repeated price reactions around $80,300 indicate that buyers are attempting to defend this support. However, the recent recovery toward $82,600 has not yet confirmed a strong bullish reversal. Traders should watch whether BTC starts forming higher lows, which could indicate that buying pressure is gradually increasing. If the price continues to struggle near $84,000, another retest of the lower support zone remains possible. A strong daily candle closing outside the current range, supported by higher volume, would provide a clearer signal of the next directional move."

Colin Shah, Managing Director, Kama Jewelry

"The tariff uncertainty witnessed last year has accelerated the Indian gems and jewellery industry's efforts to diversify into newer markets. The US continues to be our best export market, and the demand for the coming Christmas season has been very encouraging. 

This particular waiver provides much-needed clarity for exporters during this vital shipping season. Despite several hurdles faced in the past, the industry has shown its resilience, backed by the continuing consumer demand for jewellery."

Gaurav Udani, Founder - Thincredblu Securities

Nifty is expected to open flat around 23,150, with the immediate resistance zone placed at 23,200-23,250 and support in the 22,900-23,000 range.

The market is approaching an important resistance zone, and a sustained move above 23,250 could improve momentum and open the door for further recovery. However, failure to cross this zone may lead to some profit-booking.

As long as Nifty holds the 22,900-23,000 support zone, the broader near-term view remains cautiously positive, and a buy-on-dips approach looks preferable. A decisive break below 22,900, however, could weaken the setup. Traders should watch how the index reacts around these levels, with the ability to sustain higher levels likely to determine the next directional move.

The Thesis
Global capital is fleeing the AI-capex trade: Friday's 2.14% Nasdaq drop erased over $1 trillion from chip and AI majors, and the unwind hit Asia Monday, with the Nikkei down 2.2% and GIFT Nifty flat-to-soft. InvestorAi's book sits almost entirely outside that trade -- in insurance, lending, refining, and domestic consumption -- exactly where rotation money is headed.

Where We're Concentrated
The core is financial: an insurer and two NBFCs anchor the book on India's own credit and protection cycle, independent of Silicon Valley capex. A refiner adds an energy hedge as Brent holds near $108 after touching $110 on Middle East supply risk, and a consumer name rides festive demand. What breaks it: RBI tightening raises NBFC funding costs, so a hawkish surprise or a fresh crude spike would squeeze that margin story.

Conviction Picks
Highest Conviction
SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd.
Insurance premiums keep compounding whatever the Nasdaq does; a defensive anchor as the AI-capex trade unwinds globally.
Aditya Birla Capital Ltd.
NBFC lending books ride India's resilient credit demand, insulated from the overseas AI-financing jitters rattling Asian markets.
Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Ltd.
Vehicle and SME financing taps steady domestic demand, a theme standing apart from the global tech-capex rotation underway.
Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd.
Refining margins stay in focus as Brent holds near $108 after touching $110 Friday on Middle East supply risk.
ALLIED BLENDERS AND DISTILLERS Ltd.
Festive-season consumption demand underpins the thesis, a domestic story untouched by the Nasdaq's AI-spending unwind.
One Thing to Watch
Meta's Wednesday earnings print A capex number that calms AI-financing nerves would stall this book's defensive rotation; another guidance scare would extend it.

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange 

Crypto markets are trying to stabilize after a volatile week, but the recovery remains technically fragile. Bitcoin has rebounded toward $82,000-$82,500, while Ethereum is trading near $2,420, yet both remain below key breakout levels. BTC has reclaimed its short-term 20, 50 and 100-period averages on the 2-hour chart, but the $82,700-$83,000 zone remains the immediate hurdle. A sustained break could open $83,500-$84,000, while failure to hold $81,700-$82,000 would bring $81,000 and then the $80,000 demand area back into focus. Ethereum remains weaker, with $2,425-$2,450 as first resistance and $2,500-$2,525 needed for stronger trend confirmation.

Institutional flows also softened last week, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posting about $228 million in net outflows and Ether ETFs around $320 million in net outflows between October 12 and 16. Altcoins saw even sharper pressure, with the median top-500 token falling roughly 5.8% over the weekend, the steepest weekend decline since April.

Macro remains the key swing factor. Hotter U.S. inflation revived Fed tightening concerns, although immediate rate-hike expectations have since moderated. Elevated oil prices, Treasury yields and fragile global equities continue to constrain risk appetite. On-chain, Bitcoin's cycle-adjusted MVRV percentile near 25.7% points to a more attractive accumulation zone, but softer ETF demand and continued long-term-holder distribution suggest the market is still in a stabilization phase rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder & CEO, Pi42

"Bitcoin's ability to sustain levels above $80,000 reflects the market's capacity to absorb selling pressure and attract buyers at key price points. What makes the current phase interesting is the growing importance of strategic positioning, with traders looking to capitalise on price dips rather than simply react to short-term volatility. A Coinbase order-book snapshot showed a $5.34 million buy order around $81,677, highlighting meaningful buying interest near current levels. While individual orders can change quickly, such activity offers a useful glimpse into how market participants are positioning themselves.

This creates an important opportunity for the market to build a stronger foundation. As speculative positions are reassessed and buyers become more selective, sustained demand around key levels could support a more stable recovery. Bitcoin's performance will remain central, but broader participation across major cryptocurrencies would make the recovery more convincing.

Ethereum's relative weakness also highlights the potential for market leadership to evolve as conditions change. For investors, the focus should be on identifying where demand is strengthening and whether that interest is translating into sustained trading activity. The next phase could favour a more selective market, where assets backed by stronger participation lead the way." 

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin's recovery to around $82,400 on October 19 comes as buyers return after last week's fall below $80,000, although institutional demand remains uneven. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net withdrawals of $228.4 million during October 12-16, suggesting that the rebound has yet to persuade fund investors to rebuild exposure consistently.

Inflation is complicating that recovery ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 meeting. US consumer inflation reached 3.7% in September, keeping the risk of further monetary tightening relevant for crypto investors. Solana's 1.33% daily gain and Ether's 0.87% rise show some appetite returning to major altcoins, but these modest advances offer limited evidence of a lasting improvement in sentiment.

Our advice: Investors should stagger purchases and keep leverage low ahead of October 28. Bitcoin's immediate support is around $81,300, while 84,000-84,500 remains an important resistance area; committing the full intended investment before that range resolves would leave little flexibility if prices weaken again.

Hemang Gor, Senior Research Analyst - Derivatives & Technical Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 gained 148.80 points, or 0.65%, to close at 23,146.15 extending gains for a second consecutive session on Friday contrasting with the weakness observed globally, as IT stocks rallied after Tech Mahindra and Wipro results, lifting the sector index about 3.9%. Overnight, Wall Street fell as an AI-linked chip rout deepened: the S&P 500 lost 1.1%, the Nasdaq slid 2.1% and the Dow eased 0.3% proving slightly more resilient than its tech-heavy peers, leaving the Nasdaq down 4.5% for the week.

Asia opened lower, with the Nikkei 225 about 1.2% down and the Kospi 0.3% lower; Hong Kong and mainland China open later. Brent crude hovers near $108 a barrel (indicative), a burden for India's import bill and inflation outlook, while gold trades near $4,171 an ounce. GIFT Nifty at 23,117.5 (indicative) implies a flat opening.

Markets may trade sideways with heightened intraday swings due to Monday's weekly expiry settlement. Holding 23,000 remains crucial, while 22,950- and 23,300-mark key support and resistance for the day.

Daily Quote for CoinSwitch
BTC continues to consolidate in the $81K-$82K range due to spot ETF outflows of approximately $228.6M over the past week. Meanwhile, accumulation by large holders remains strong, with wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC adding nearly 86K BTC since mid-September, indicating sustained buying interest by whales. Expectations of improved market liquidity from the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buyback programme could provide additional support to crypto markets. Going forward, ETF flows and broader liquidity conditions will remain key factors influencing BTC's next move said CoinSwitch Markets Desk

Daily Quote for Mudrex
Bitcoin has recovered to around $82,500 after Fed Chair Warsh's remarks eased concerns over further tightening. Markets have lowered the probability of an October rate hike to 15% from 27%. However, institutional demand remains weak, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $229 million in outflows last week, bringing October's total to $618 million. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows only 4.4% of coins held for 6-12 months are moving to exchanges, down from 40.4% in June, while new buyers have accumulated 570,000 BTC since late July, indicating less intent to sell. For now, support stands at $79,500, with resistance at $83,850 said Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex.

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At the close on Friday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,72,62,167 crore.

Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX

"A sharp Nasdaq sell-off and a jump in market volatility did little to dent Bitcoin on Monday, but Ether's weekly slide shows how unevenly the market is holding up.

Bitcoin shrugged off a rough session on Wall Street. The largest cryptocurrency traded near $82,200, up about 0.9% over 24 hours and down 2% on the week. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.14%, the S&P 500 lost 1.09%, and the Dow slipped 0.34%. Investors usually treat Bitcoin as a high-beta technology proxy in risk-off moves, so that resilience stands out.

Ether told a different story. It changed hands around $2,411, up 0.35% on the day but down 5.22% over seven days, more than double Bitcoin's weekly loss. At roughly 0.0293 bitcoin per ether, the pair's ratio suggests investors are favoring the larger, more established asset when conditions turn cautious.

Trading activity was subdued. Bitcoin's 24-hour volume of $19.3 billion is only about 1.2% of its $1.65 trillion market cap, and Ether's $8.04 billion is about 2.7% of its $294.5 billion. Modest gains on light volume are hard to read as conviction either way.

Traditional markets sent a more cautious signal. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, jumped 21.5% to 19.99, just shy of the 20 level traders often use as a marker of rising stress. Gold edged up 0.3% to $4,193, while oil, still above $100 a barrel, slipped 0.8%. Elevated energy prices remain a risk for inflation and, by extension, interest-rate expectations, which matter for every risk asset.

The crypto market is showing modest gains, with the total market capitalisation rising 0.78% to $2.75 trillion. The CMC20 index, which tracks the performance of leading crypto assets, is up 0.85% at $168.09, indicating a broadly positive market trend.

However, investor sentiment remains cautious. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 49, firmly in neutral territory, suggesting that market participants are yet to develop a strong bullish or bearish conviction. Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index is at 54, indicating relatively balanced performance between altcoins and Bitcoin, without a decisive shift towards an altcoin-led rally.

What to watch: The key question is whether crypto's resilience survives a second day of equity weakness. A sustained VIX above 20 and continued Ether underperformance would both point to thinning risk appetite."

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Gold is trading near $4,170/oz, with safe-haven buying amid weakness in equities and bond yields helping offset pressure from expectations of a December Fed rate hike, which remains highly likely. Silver is holding above $57/oz. Oil markets remain sensitive to supply risks, with WTI near $98/barrel after rising around 10% last week to a one-month high. Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, including the Yanbu export hub, have heightened supply concerns. The rupee closed near ₹94.9/$, gaining 1.9% last week, its strongest weekly rise in seven months as RBI measures curbed dollar demand.