Stock Market LIVE: The market-cap of all BSE-listed companies advanced Rs 3.64 lakh crore to Rs 465.97 lakh crore, compared to Rs 462.33 trillion at the close of Thursday's session. 

The Indian stock market rebounded on Friday, with investors stepping in to buy stocks that had fallen sharply in the previous session. The recovery was led by gains in IT, banking, financial services and FMCG counters. Sentiment in the technology sector also improved after Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) reported better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter of FY27, prompting fresh buying interest in IT stocks.

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Gaurav Udani, Founder - Thincredblu Securities

Nifty is expected to open flat around 22,610, indicating a cautious start to the session. The key support zone is likely to be around 22,500-22,550, while 22,750-22,850 can act as the immediate resistance zone.

With Sensex weekly expiry today, volatility could remain elevated and we may see sharp intraday moves. The market is likely to remain range-bound initially, with price action around the key support and resistance levels guiding the next move.

As long as Nifty holds above 22,500, traders can look at a buy-on-dips approach, while a sustained move above 22,850 would improve the overall momentum. On the downside, a decisive break below 22,500 could bring further weakness. Given the expiry, it would be better to avoid chasing the opening move and wait for the market to settle.

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Bitcoin dropped to $80,400, its lowest since September 21, before recovering above $81,000 after Trump ruled out US strikes on Iran before the midterms. The sell-off came as Fed minutes showed expectations of another rate hike before year-end, with the 10-year Treasury yield at a 24-year high near 5.3%, while oil spiked toward $105. Roughly $1 billion of positions were liquidated, with 90% of them being longs. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $487 million of outflows, their largest since late June. About $1.8 billion in options expire today, further adding to the volatility. Bitcoin's support has moved down to $80,000, while resistance stands at $85,000 said Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex.

BTC approached $80K due to a broader risk-off move across crypto and technology stocks, driven by rising oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty and weakness in risk assets. The pullback also extended to AI infrastructure plays, reflecting concerns around financing costs and broader market sentiment. However, BTC's recovery from session lows highlights some resilience amid market volatility. Going forward, easing macroeconomic pressures, stabilisation in risk assets and renewed buying interest could support a recovery, with BTC's ability to sustain levels above $80K remaining a key factor in shaping near-term market sentiment said CoinSwitch Markets Desk.

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Gold is near $4,150/oz and on track to end the week broadly flat after dipping to a two-month low near $4,120. While the Fed is expected to hold rates in October, markets are pricing in over 80% odds of a December hike, limiting gold's upside. Silver remains above $59/oz, close to a two-month low. WTI surged 5% to around $93/barrel on a Gulf storm that shut in 25% of offshore output, before easing toward $91 after Trump ruled out an attack before the midterms. The rupee closed at Rs 96.88/$, with suspected RBI intervention cushioning losses.

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At the close on Thursday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,60,97,022 crore.

The Thesis
Nifty 500 shed 2% on Thursday as Brent surged past $104 on fresh Hormuz tanker attacks, pushing India VIX up over 10% and extending FII outflows to Rs 12,944 crore even as DII bought Rs 10,703 crore. With GIFT Nifty signalling a modest positive open as crude eases slightly in the Asia session, the book leans into names shielded from imported-inflation pressure and rupee weakness rather than chasing the bounce.

Where We're Concentrated
Conviction clusters around rupee-advantaged exporters and domestic-demand consumption rather than oil-sensitive cyclicals - a textile exporter whose dollar realisations improve as the rupee holds near record lows, an alcobev name tied to resilient discretionary spend, an EPC/capex play geared to the same energy-infrastructure spending the crude spike is funding, a mining-equipment supplier riding the metals capex cycle, and a niche media-tech name largely decoupled from the macro. What breaks the thesis: a sustained Brent move toward $110 would widen the current account and pressure the rupee further, eroding the exporter tailwind.

Conviction Picks
Highest Conviction
Allied Blenders and Distillers
Alcobev demand holds steady even as oil-led inflation pressures discretionary spend elsewhere in the basket.
Welspun Living
A weaker rupee lifts dollar realisations for this textile exporter just as FII outflows keep INR under pressure.
Prime Focus
Media-tech earnings run largely decoupled from the crude-driven volatility gripping the broader Nifty 500 complex.
Engineers India
PSU capex in energy infrastructure gets a tailwind from the same crude spike rattling equities this week.
Tega Industries
Mining-equipment demand tracks the metals capex cycle, a pocket the broad Nifty 500 selloff largely spared.
One Thing to Watch
Fresh Hormuz tanker strikes escalate UKMTO flagged another vessel hit off Qatar's coast on Thursday, the latest in a string of attacks this week; a lull lets Brent ease back toward $100, but one more strike risks a retest above $105 and renewed FII selling.

Manoj Mishra, Partner and Tax Controversary Management Leader, Grant Thornton Bharat

One of the longstanding challenges under GST has been the accumulation of unutilised input tax credit under the inverted duty structure, resulting in significant working capital blockage for businesses. While the existing refund mechanism permits recovery of accumulated credit on input goods, the exclusion of input services and capital goods has restricted its effectiveness, leaving businesses with substantial stranded credits and increasing financing costs.

The council's proposal to extend refunds to input services from November 2026 and plant and machinery from April 2027, would mark a significant structural correction to the existing refund framework. For sectors such as pharmaceuticals, FMCG, textile and other capital-intensive industries, these measures could unlock substantial working capital, reduce financing costs and improve the viability of fresh investments and capacity expansion. 

Additionally, extending refunds of credit on plant and machinery to exporters could further ease capital expenditure-related tax costs and support investments in export capacity. The larger significance of this reform lies in moving towards a more comprehensive refund mechanism, ensuring that taxes paid on essential business expenditure and capital investments do not remain permanently locked in the GST system. However, the proposed phased recovery of credit on plant and machinery over five years means that timely refunds and efficient implementation will be critical to translating this reform into meaningful financial relief for businesses.

On Input Tax Credit: The decision to allow input tax credit (ITC) on outdoor catering services is a significant correction to one of the most debated credit restrictions under Section 17(5) of the CGST Act. For years, GST paid on catering services provided at factories, corporate campuses, IT parks and other business establishments remained an embedded cost despite being closely linked to workforce management and business operations. By bringing these expenses back within the credit chain, the Council has reinforced the fundamental GST principle that taxes should not become a cost where goods or services are used in the course or furtherance of business. Beyond the immediate cost savings for employers, the reform is expected to reduce long-standing litigation, improve tax certainty and remove distortions created by the blocked credit mechanism. More importantly, it signals a broader willingness under GST 2.0 to revisit legacy credit restrictions and align the law with commercial realities, making the tax system more neutral, predictable and business-friendly.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

On October 9, both gold and silver enters the session with different underlying positions. December gold ended Thursday 0.42% higher at Rs 1,49,735 per 10 grams. This was close to its intraday high of Rs 1,49,941. Its open interest, however, fell 0.75%. This suggests that short-covering contributed to the rise. So, a move above Rs 1,50,000 is needed before the recovery can be treated as stronger buying.

December silver presents a more unsettled picture. It fell 1.05% to Rs 2,21,211 per kg after moving through a wide Rs 4,851 intraday range. Open interest rose 3.58% during the fall, indicating that traders added positions as prices weakened. The Rs 2,19,800-Rs 2,20,000 area is therefore important support, while Rs 2,24,652 is the first level that silver must recover.

The international lead is favourable. Spot gold has risen 0.9% to $4,169 an ounce, while silver has recovered 1.1% to $60. The rupee's decline to 96.7750 against the dollar should provide additional support to domestic prices. Easing US Treasury yields and a pause in the dollar's rally have helped bullion, although expectations of another US rate increase remain a constraint.

For buyers, gold offers the clearer set-up, but purchases can be staggered until Rs 1,50,000 is crossed convincingly. Silver may deliver a sharper rebound, but its 2.17% range on Thursday shows why positions should be smaller and leverage lower. A break below Rs 2,19,800 would signal that the overnight recovery has not repaired silver's domestic weakness.

Piyush Walke, Derivatives Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

"Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $81,000 on Thursday, triggering nearly $1 billion in liquidations across the cryptocurrency market as rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions increased pressure on risk assets. The decline in Bitcoin and technology stocks was also driven by concerns that OpenAI's revenue was $20 billion below expectations, contributing to losses in major technology companies such as Nvidia and Intel. Meanwhile, tensions between the United States and Iran, including US military movements and ongoing negotiations, added to market uncertainty and kept investors cautious. However, Bitcoin recovered above $81,000 , after President Donald Trump stated that the US would not strike Iran before the November 3 midterm elections.

Bitcoin's key support levels are now in focus as traders assess the possibility of further price movements. The $82,000-$83,000 range had acted as resistance in May and again in September before turning into support. This zone became an important level for buyers to defend to maintain bullish momentum. The next major support zone lies between $78,000 and $79,000. A sustained break below this range could expose Bitcoin to a deeper correction, while holding above it may help stabilize the price.

Other major cryptocurrencies also declined alongside Bitcoin. Ether (ETH) traded between $2,460 and $2,500, recording losses of nearly 4%. Solana (SOL) dropped 6.56% to $109, while XRP fell as much as 5.58% to $1.35. The broader decline highlights continued volatility across the cryptocurrency market as investors respond to geopolitical risks, macroeconomic uncertainty, and weakness in technology stocks."

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin is trading near $81,900 after its move above $85,000 failed to hold. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded at least $723.5 million of outflows over the 2 sessions through October 8, removing the institutional demand that had supported the late-September rally. The macro setting has also turned less favourable, with the US 10-year Treasury yield near 5.33%, the Dollar Index above 102 and the Federal Reserve's policy rate at 3.75%-4.00%.

The weakness has spread across the market: Bitcoin is down about 1.3% over 24 hours, while Ether has fallen 3.6%, BNB 4.7% and Solana 5.7%. This broader underperformance suggests investors are reducing exposure to higher-risk assets rather than reacting to a Bitcoin-specific event.

For investors, $81,000 is the immediate level to watch. Fresh purchases can be staggered instead of being committed in 1 trade, while high leverage is best avoided until Bitcoin recovers $83,300 and then $85,500 with stronger ETF inflows. A break below $81,000 could take the market towards $80,000 and subsequently the more important on-chain support near $77,200.

Purvang Mashru, Lead Analyst, BitDelta India

Bitcoin fell 1.8% to $81,753 on 9 October, while Ethereum dropped 3.9% to $2,478. Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, Cardano, Avalanche, TRX and Chainlink all declined. The median loss was 4.6%.

Selling was concentrated in higher-beta altcoins. Cardano lost 9.5%, Avalanche 8.9% and Solana 6.2%. Bitcoin touched $80,316 before recovering to the middle of its 24-hour range, showing demand near $80,000 but no decisive reversal.

The international backdrop added pressure. The Nasdaq fell 1.25% and the S&P 500 lost 0.47% on 8 October. Brent crude rose 4.1% and WTI gained 3.6%, reinforcing inflation concerns as markets priced a 69.2% probability of a December Federal Reserve Rate increase.

Institutional demand also weakened. The completed 7 October session recorded $484.9 million of Bitcoin ETF outflows and $160.9 million from Ether funds.

Bitcoin support sits near $81,000, followed by $80,316 and $80,000. Resistance is near $82,000 and $83,349. A sustained reclaim of $82,000 with Ethereum above $2,500 and narrower altcoin losses would stabilise the setup. A break below $80,316 would increase downside risk.

Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX

Market Snapshot

Bitcoin fell to around $80,000 on Thursday as renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran, institutional outflows and concerns about AI-enabled security threats affected sentiment across the crypto market. Bitcoin traded near $80,449 in the latest update, while Ethereum was priced at approximately $2,478. Solana stood at $110.66, XRP at $1.38 and Dogecoin at $0.08322.

The broader crypto market capitalisation stood at $2.77 trillion, with 24-hour trading volume of $120.75 billion. Bitcoin dominance remained high at 59.4%, compared with Ethereum's 10.9%. This indicates that investors continue to favour relatively established assets while uncertainty remains elevated.

The Fear and Greed Index was at 55, reflecting neutral sentiment despite the decline. However, derivatives data highlighted the intensity of the move. According to Coinglass, 164,899 traders were liquidated over 24 hours, with total liquidations reaching $1.02 billion. Perpetual open interest stood at $418.18 billion, while futures open interest was $1.19 billion.

Institutional flows also added pressure. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $487.07 million on Wednesday, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of $160.8 million. The cautious environment extended to traditional markets, with the Nasdaq declining 1.25% and the S&P 500 falling 0.47%. Gold gained 0.95%, suggesting that some investors were moving towards defensive assets.

Bitcoin: Support and Resistance

Bitcoin is currently testing the important psychological support level of $80,000. If this zone holds, the market could attempt to stabilise and move back towards $82,800. A sustained recovery above $82,800 would be necessary to improve short-term momentum, with the next resistance range appearing around 84,000-85,000.

If Bitcoin fails to defend $80,000, attention could shift towards $77,000, which broadly corresponds with the 50-week moving average. Scott Melker has described the move below $82,800 as a potentially healthy retest rather than an immediate invalidation of Bitcoin's improving market structure. He also believes that even a move towards $77,000 would not necessarily be alarming from a longer-term technical perspective.

Bitcoin's recent higher high and recovery above major moving averages suggest that the broader bearish trend may be losing strength. However, one price movement does not establish a reversal. The market will need to hold key support levels and demonstrate sustained buying interest before a stronger recovery can be confirmed.

Ethereum: Key Levels

Ethereum is showing greater short-term weakness than Bitcoin and is testing support around 2,450-2,400. If this range does not hold, the next meaningful support could emerge between $2,300 and $2,350.

On the upside, Ethereum must first reclaim $2,500. A sustained move above this level could open the way towards the 2,600-2,650 range. Ethereum's implied volatility stood at 52.63, compared with 39.12 for Bitcoin, indicating that the market expects ETH to experience relatively larger price swings.

This higher volatility, combined with ETF outflows and leveraged liquidations, means Ethereum could remain more sensitive to changes in market sentiment over the near term.

What to Watch

The immediate focus will remain on whether Bitcoin can defend $80,000 and whether Ethereum can hold the 2,400-2,450 region. ETF flows will be equally important, as continued withdrawals could limit the strength of any recovery, while a return to consistent inflows would indicate improving institutional demand. Investors should also monitor geopolitical developments involving Iran, broader movements in technology stocks and the level of leverage across crypto derivatives, as these factors could produce further volatility."