In Bihar Assembly Today, a Trust Vote and Much Chaos

The big suspense today is over how many members of Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) will vote for Mr Manjhi. He needs 117 votes to remain Chief Minister.

Mr Manjhi claims he has the support of at least 12 JD(U) members and three Independents. So even with the support of the BJP's 87, he is poorly placed to win the trust vote.

The BJP's Sushil Kumar Modi has said Mr Manjhi's winning is immaterial to the party. "We are only looking at ensuring that Nitish Kumar's insult to a Mahadalit is not taken lying down," he said.

The JD(U) has said it will boycott the Governor's speech ahead of the trust vote to protest against his decision to read a speech prepared by what it calls Mr Manjhi's minority government.

Just before the trust vote, the JD(U)'s legislators will troop in from the Assembly lawns with their faces covered in further protest. They have been recognised as the main opposition and will be seated in the opposition benches.

Mr Manjhi has been expelled from the JD(U), which governs Bihar, and which decided earlier this month that he should step down to allow the return of Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister. But he has refused to resign.

Nitish Kumar is confident that he has 128 votes, which would make him Chief Minister.

Bihar votes for its next government later this year. The JD(U) wants Mr Kumar, 63, to be the face of its campaign for the election. The party has allied with Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal or RJD to take on the BJP.

The BJP and the JD(U) aborted a lengthy alliance at the insistence of Mr Kumar ahead of the national election. He was opposed to the BJP's decision to select his arch-rival, then Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, as its prime ministerial candidate.

Mr Kumar erred gravely. His party won just two seats in the national election, and he resigned, accepting responsibility for the colossal wipeout. He alleges that Mr Manjhi's rebellion has been scripted by the BJP to undermine his position.