In Nagpur, they ask, "Will Narendra Modi come?"

Nagpur: For four consecutive elections, the Congress has won the seat of Nagpur in Maharashtra, despite the shades of saffron in its relief map.

The city is the homestead of the RSS or the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS), the ideological mentor of the opposition BJP. Nagpur votes on April 10. It must choose between the incumbent Vilas Muttemwar, activist-turned-politician Anjali Damania of the Aam Aadmi Party, and Nitin Gadkari, the former president of the BJP.

Losing Nagpur in this election would be a slamming body blow for the BJP. Mr Gadkari's stature as a top BJP leader - established in many ways through his closeness to the RSS - will pass through the metal detector of his first parliamentary election. There's also the fact that the party's prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, is the front-runner for the country's top job according to opinion polls, which expect the BJP to win the maximum seats but fall well short of a majority. If the wave of national support that the BJP claims for Mr Modi rolls right past Nagpur, some major prestige points will be lost.

Yet, Mr Modi has so far not appeared in this city, considered Maharashtra's second capital. He has been in the neighbourhood - a week ago, he campaigned just 80 km away, in Wardha.

There is a ready supply of theories for why, depending on who's consulted:  Muslims make up 7% of the population, and it's possible that Mr Gadkari does not want to risk an adverse reaction by outsourcing a part of his campaign to Mr Modi, who was in his first term as chief minister when Gujarat was lacerated by communal riots in 2002 (a Supreme Court inquiry has said there's no evidence of his alleged collusion in the violence, its report was upheld by a local court recently); Mr Gadkari and Mr Modi share a strained past; logistics, not politics, have kept Nagpur off Mr Modi's radar.

"There is no strain," said Mr Gadkari to NDTV, denying residual dust of earlier friction. "I'm sure he will come." When asked why, during his term as party president, he would communicate with Mr Modi through Balbir Punj, the 56-year-old replied, "Differences of opinion doesn't mean acrimony." However, there have been many demonstrations of their markedly strident differences including a war that was won by Mr Modi over Sanjay Joshi, a leader he considers hostile. Under the weight of Mr Modi's unbridled opposition, Mr Gadkari was forced to drop Mr Joshi from the BJP's national executive in 2012.

Mr Gadkari is a familiar sight in Nagpur, often spotted riding his scooter to the RSS headquarters or to his favourite vada pao vendor, illustrating the defeated diets he likes to joke about.

Other defeats are foreseen for him by Congress candidate Vilas Muttenwar. This is his ninth election, he points out, dismissing Mr Gadkari and AAP candidate Anjali Damania as inconsequential. "If Modi arrives to campaign here, I will win by a margin of two lakh votes," he professes.

Two years ago, AAP candidate Anjali Damania used the Right to Information Act to excavate documents that, according to her, establish a huge irrigation scam in Maharashtra. She alleged at the time that Mr Gadkari urged her to suppress the information; he threatened then to sue her.  "For me, he is the main enemy," she told NDTV, ceding that she sees Mr Gadkari as her real opponent.