Tezpur, Assam:
Entry of lottery baron Moni Kumar Subba, who is facing murder and rape cases, into the fray as an Independent is likely to make the contest in Tezpur an interesting one with the three-time former Congress MP banking on support of main opposition party AIUDF and the Nepali community to see him through.
Mr Subba, who lost in 2009 to AGP's Joseph Toppo, was denied a Congress ticket for the cases pending against him, and could queer the pitch for the ruling party candidate Bhupen Bora.
Mr Subba is the richest candidate in the state with Rs 306 crore of declared assets. Apart from serious cases against him, Mr Subba's Indian citizenship is also under the scanner after a petition was filed in 2005 in the Apex Court alleging that he was a Nepali citizen who had fled from there after a murder case was registered against him in the early 70s.
The Supreme Court directed the CBI to inquire into the matter and the agency submitted a report stating that he obtained a birth certificate in a fraudulent manner, to which Mr Subba had raised objections.
According to analysts, Mr Bora, an MLA from Bihpuria in neighbouring Lakhimpur district, had an edge over the other candidates with the BJP-AGP alliance failing to come through and Toppo's prospects of retaining the seat appearing almost bleak.
The scenario, however, changed with Mr Subba jumping into the fray as Independent on the last day of nominations, they said.
Following his filing of nomination, Congress expelled Mr Subba for six years for anti-party activities.
AIUDF's support to Mr Subba and a sizable electorate belonging to the Nepali community in this constituency located on the northern bank of Brahmaputra river may work in his favour, analysts added.
The constituency, where nine candidates are in fray including BJP's Ram Prasad Sarmah, will go to polls in the first phase on April 7.
Congress candidate Mr Bora has been provided with additional security and asked by security forces to move in bullet proof
vehicles during campaigning after his father claimed that the NDFB issued a threat to his son.
The recent killing of 13 people and subsequent protests in Behali area of the constituency may also cast a shadow during the polls with opposition parties going all out to capitalise on the law and order situation.
Narendra Modi during his campaign rally at Biswanath Chariali earlier this week slammed Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi for not going himself or sending any of his ministers to the incident site.
The constituency, where Lok Sabha elections have been held since 1967, has seen Congress losing only twice though in some of the assembly segments, the AGP had a strong base prior to the 2011 elections.
According to analysts, Toppo, who had won last time mainly due to the predominant tea garden electorate of Dhekiajuli, Rangapara, Biswanath Chariali, Behali and Gohpur segments, may find the contest tough with the party in a disarray in the constituency.
Firebrand Sootea MLA Padma Hazarika's expulsion from AGP and subsequent exit of entire district unit will also affect the party's chances, they said.
Mr Subba is confident of his chances this time despite cases of rape, attempt to murder and cheating pending against him, saying his victory "would vindicate my position in court of law".
"I have represented Tezpur for three consecutive terms and people here want me to complete the different schemes initiated by me for the constituency's development," Mr Subba, said.
Mr Bora also is upbeat after Rahul Gandhi, campaigning for him last week, appealed to the predominant Assamese and tea
garden population to vote for him so that the rich cultural and literary legacy of the constituency, regarded as Assam's cultural capital, can be preserved for posterity.
Meanwhile, BJP's Mr Sarmah is banking on Mr Modi's impact and said "there is a strong Modi wave in Tezpur and people are fed up with Congress".