New Delhi: (Mani Shankar Aiyar is a Congress MP in the Rajya Sabha)Legend has it that a humble tailor decided to make his mark in the world by swatting 30 flies, then proclaiming himself The Slayer of Thirty -
Tees Maar Khan. Jayalalithaa is seeking to rival her legendary predecessor by breaking her alliance with the Left to contest all 39 seats in Tamil Nadu and one in Puducherry, all on her own. She has carefully selected a panel of unknowns as her candidates, confident that all the votes that fall for the AIADMK are actually votes just for her. So, candidates don't matter, what matters is that she emerges from the elections with a full hand to stake her claim to the Prime Ministership. Should she succeed, she will overtake the tailor and become a
Chalis Maar Khan.
Megalomania, of course, needs to be unbounded. If it were hemmed in by reason, it would cease to be megalomania. First, how 40 seats would translate into a commanding presence in a House of over 540 is a mathematical riddle requiring explanation. Second, whether she gets anywhere near all the Tamil Nadu/Pondicherry seats is highly doubtful. Let me take up each consideration in turn.
40=272 is, of course, nonsense. Even Jayalalithaa can see that. Her calculation is that the both the BJP and the Congress would fall well short of a majority, leaving a gaggle of state parties and regionals, plus the redoubtable Aam Aadmi Party and the Left, to cobble together a sufficient number of seats to be able to dictate terms to the two bigger parties.
The argument to the Congress would be straightforward: you're down, so you're out. The argument to the BJP would be rather more complex: you're up, but you're nowhere near up enough. Without us, you cannot cross the half-point - and we won't let you get past that mark, particularly because of none of us (and many of you!) can't stand Modi. So, you can either support us from the outside or become the dog that is wagged by the Third Front tail. If the BJP baulks, the same siren song would be sung to the Congress, and it would be left to each of them to place their bets. Politics would become a casino.
While it is far too early to predict whether the Third Front craft would collide with Scylla or Charybdis, what needs reflection is who will lead this motley collection. Jayalalithaa believes she is the obvious choice (why? because she says so, that's why!) She has been given some succour by Mamata Banerjee's offer of support. But only someone as self-deluded as Jayalalithaa would fail to see that Mamata has come out in her favour not because of some sudden discovery of virtue but because Mamata is delighted that the Left has got one more on the jaw from a rival pugilist. Which is also, of course, why the Left is waiting to deliver an upper-cut to the one who has thus slighted them the minute she steps into the ring.
Meanwhile, Nitish has signalled that he would make a much better PM than Modi. Of course, he would. He has certainly made a much better Chief Minster. But if wishes were horses, then alone would the Nitishes ride. It appears he would come in a poor third. That might diminish the number of his MPs in the Lok Sabha but would still leave him a star of the Third Front with clout to match. Does he not think he would make a better PM than Jayalalithaa?
Naveen Patnaik is, for the moment, keeping his counsel. But I would be astonished if he did not think he should make up for what his father was denied - the top prize. Would the Colossus of Odisha wish to play second fiddle to the Madam from Madras? Or, for that matter, would the Lady from UP wish to do the same? And what of Mulayam? Why not the crown for him? And thus would the scene wind down with heroes and villains and heroines exchanging places in rapid succession as 1996 and 1997 are repeated redux Deve Gowda and Inder Gujral.
As for whether it is at all realistic for Jayalalithaa to expect a crop of 40 seats to come her way, there could be little more unrealistic. Till now, electoral politics in Tamil Nadu has been a two-horse race, between an alliance led by the AIADMK pitted against a rival alliance led by the DMK. One or the other has often taken the entire cake: the AIADMK-led alliance in 1991 and the DMK-led alliance in 2004, on both occasions depriving the other side of even a single seat in the Lok Sabha.
This time round, however, for the first time ever, there are five different formations in the field: The AIADMK on its own; the DMK, also on its own bar a couple of small-time tokens; the BJP, still working out its seat sharing arrangements with the DMDK (Capt. Vijayakanth) and the PMK (Dr. Ramadoss) - a virtually impossible Sudoku puzzle - as the DMDK and the PMK are rivals for many of the same seats, particularly in north Tamil Nadu; then the Congress, riding its wavelet in splendid isolation; and, finally, the Left, doing much the same but in a much more limited way.
In this unprecedented five-way split of the vote, all bets are off except one, namely, that no one, not even Jayalalithaa can win 40 seats. So, what's the fuss about?
Jayalalithaa is about to discover that is easier to add one letter - 'a' - to the end of her name than to add two letters, PM, after her name.
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