(Kumar Ketkar is a senior journalist, political commentator, globe trotter and author. He has covered all Indian elections since 1971 and significant international events. He is a frequent participant on TV debates.)Maharashtra and Haryana are different politically and culturally. Therefore, the BJP's huge victories projected by exit polls in both these states have to be interpreted differently. The only common factor was that Narendra Modi campaigned in these two states with the same tempo and frenzy that we saw during the Lok Sabha election.
Maharashtra is strategically very important because it has Mumbai, the vibrant commercial centre, as its capital. Like any other leader, Modi would like the political capital, New Delhi, and also the business capital in his total command. He wanted to conquer Haryana because it is the capital's richest neighbouring state.
Modi treats elections as wars. He mobilizes his army of cheer leaders and planners who chalk out everything from itinerary to his wardrobe. He pays personal attention to the rally venues and to themes and sharp punch lines.
But Maharashtra is also geographically important - it is neither a southern state, nor northern. Its proximity is with Rajasthan and Gujarat in Western India. Gujarat and Maharashtra control most of the trade and industry in India.
Modi, surfing on the strong waves of his Lok Sabha victory, had decided to liberate his party from the alliance with the Sena in Maharashtra. Within a few hours of his boarding the plane for America, the state unit of the BJP made the announcement that the marriage was over. That was as per the script.
The Maharashtra election cannot be understood without taking into cognizance the rather risky gamble that it was. If the final and official results tally with the "poll of polls" that was made public, then one can surely say that the Modi-Shah gamble has paid off handsomely. The BJP's highest score was in 1995. The party had won 65 seats. But the background to that saffron alliance victory was the destruction of the Babri Masjid and the mayhem that followed. Also, the BJP won those seats with the Sena and not on its own.
The exit polls now show that the BJP would win as many as 123-134 seats, that is almost double the number of 1995. It is almost three times the party's 2009 score. And this victory is exclusively of the BJP. Even if the Shiv Sena wins its projected 69 seats, up from 44 in 2009, its total would be less than in 1995, when it won 73 seats. So the BJP has not only decimated the Congress and Sharad Pawar's NCP, but has also successfully marginalized the Shiv Sena.
With the Congress expected to win 43 ( down from 82 in 2009 ) and the NCP set to get 35 (down from 65 in 2009), one can say that Modi has made Maharashtra Congress-Mukta. And as a rich bonus to the BJP, in Haryana too the Congress is hit by a landmine ( pun intended of course ). The Congress is reduced from 40 to 12 seats; the BJP is likely to win a stunning 45 seats compared to its 2009 score of just four.
With Maharashtra and Haryana in its fold, the BJP has brought under its control a large part of the country. Just look at the sequential states under the Modi regime--Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chattisgarhgarh, Rajasthan. The next round of elections will be in Bihar, Bengal and Uttar Pradesh - none of these will bring a modicum of relief to the Congress which should treat its condition like an epidemic of huge proportions.
The election in Maharashtra and Haryana has brought forth a very genuine apprehension among the liberals, media and intellectuals. Modi's tantalizing victories will surely make a tectonic shift in national politics, by virtually ejecting the Congress. If the Congress does not pick up courage and go to the people to win them over and start confidence-building measures, then the year 2019 will see the end of the party. If the Modi-led BJP fails to deliver, and the Congress fails to recover, then we could confront a dark phase.
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