Modi's Varanasi challenges, by Patrick French

: (Patrick French is an award-winning historian and political commentator. His books include 'Liberty or Death: India's Journey to Independence and Division', 'The World Is What It Is' and 'India: A Portrait'.)

Has Mukhtar Ansari introduced a game-changer in Varanasi? Rather than run against the BJP's prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, he says he has stepped aside "to strengthen secular forces and avoid division of votes." The most plausible beneficiary of his decision is the Congress candidate, Ajay Rai, a local 'son of soil' and former BJP member. Rai's Twitter bio reads: "Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and goodwill, shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness." It is a Biblical mash-up, a line uttered by the contract killer Jules (played by Samuel L Jackson) in the Tarantino movie Pulp Fiction, each time he is about to shoot someone. This seems a strange self-definition for an aspiring MP: I wonder what Ansari thinks of it. (Mukhtar Ansari not to contest against Modi to 'avoid division of votes')
 
In the 2009 general election, Ansari lost to Murli Manohar Joshi by a mere 17,000 votes. He hopes this time that by withdrawing, he can encourage other parties to unite behind a single candidate, and deal a symbolic knockdown to Modi in the holy city. "If Mukhtar is really a well-wisher of Muslims," a businessman named Zia told me when I was there last month, "he won't stand from here. That would split the vote."

At the last general election, Ansari had to run his campaign from a cell in Kanpur District Gaol, where he was detained on dozens of charges, including murder. I visited him then and was surprised by the style in which this very tall and rather terrifying man lived, and by his ability to enthuse his supporters remotely. He told me his opponent, Murli Manohar Joshi, was an enemy of the state, a fascist and "a very low, petty, filthy human being" - and claimed a BJP leaflet had portrayed him as Aurangzeb "at Kashi Vishwanath temple, blood dripping from a sword, lightning coming from the sky, standing with my foot on the statues." It was a mean fight. (India Votes 2014: Full coverage)

Soon after he lost the seat to Joshi, Ansari was booted out of the BSP by Mayawati, who had decided he was a criminal rather than the Robin Hood character she had said he was during the election campaign. He formed his own party, the Quami Ekta Dal, together with his brother the politician Afzal, and although he remains in custody, Mukhtar Ansari is the sitting MLA for Mau having won seven consecutive elections.

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Though Narendra Modi has plenty of admirers in Varanasi, he faces two significant challenges. The first is that Joshi was not popular as an MP, and the BJP is resented for allowing the city's infrastructure to remain in a terrible condition. The second is that, in the words of the Congress candidate Ajay Rai, "Varanasi is known for its Ganga-Jamuni culture and 'Har Har Modi' will not work here. We have been chanting 'Har Har Mahadev' for centuries." Rai was overstating his case, but the city does not feel communally polarised. Judging by previous election results, a unitary candidate supported by the BSP, SP, AAP and Congress would defeat Modi.

Will this happen? That depends on the party leaders' magnanimity, and crucially on Arvind Kejriwal, who has the capacity to attract a good share of the vote in Varanasi but stands little chance of winning. As things stand it is Rai, the local man, who has the best opportunity for victory. If Modi is defeated in Varanasi, it would put a serious dent in his claim to embody a national dynamic that extends beyond Gujarat.

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