(Kumar Ketkar is a senior journalist, political commentator, globe trotter and author. He has covered all Indian elections since 1971 and significant international events. He is a frequent participant on TV debates.)Frankly, I did not imagine that such non-pragmatism would prevail in the saffron alliance in Maharashtra. Or for that matter in the so-called secular alliance led by the Congress. Of the two, the more dismaying is the vertical split in the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance. After being decimated in the Lok Sabha elections, the ruling Congress alliance was clearly headed for a disastrous defeat and the BJP and Sena were to set to get a virtual walkover in the assembly elections.
Pollsters and pundits were unanimous in their predictions that the Congress and NCP would not even get 100 seats together. If one analysed the constituencies where the BJP-Shiv Sena won by huge margins in the Lok Sabha elections, it was obvious that both the Congress-NCP would suffer the worst rout in their bastions.
By that analysis, the BJP-Shiv Sena would have won nearly 240 seats out of 288 seats in the assembly. Even tempering that with the fact that voting patterns change from national to state elections, a conservative estimate would give the saffron alliance a win in 200 seats, leaving only 88 for the Congress, NCP and others.
The anti-incumbency sentiment was so strong and palpable that you could touch it in the air. Now, however, after the BJP-Sena split and collapse of the Congress-led front, an unusually unpredictable electoral scene has emerged.
The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, "Yuti" as it was popularly known, was, despite some bickerings, stable for 25 years. It had run a successful government for nearly a full term between 1995-1999. In fact, it was the precursor to the National Democratic Alliance that came to power in 1998 and 1999 at the Centre under the leadership of Atal Behari Vajpayee.
The late Balasaheb Thackeray enjoyed the trust and affection of not just Vajpayee, but the entire BJP leadership. Lal Krishna Advani always visited the Thackeray home 'Matoshree' when in Mumbai and the bonhomie was reflected in joint public meetings and press conferences. A grand 'Photo-biography' of Balasaheb was released by Vajpayee at a dazzling function at the Gateway of India on May 11, 2005. Balasaheb, Vajpayee, Advani, Jaswant Singh, Murli Manohar Joshi and others of that era shared common political memories.
The rise of Narendra Modi and the slow eclipse of the older leadership of the BJP should perhaps have been seen as a sign by the Shiv Sena that things would change. They did not portend "Achche Din" for it.
Even when Balasaheb Thackeray was around, Modi often ignored his presence. He did not visit "Matoshree", nor did he ever mention Thackeray's contribution to the Hindutva cause. Modi was also conspicuous by his absence at Balasaheb's funeral on November 18, 2012. The rest of the top party leadership was there including Advani and Sushma Swaraj. Modi's absence was noted by the media and, of course, Balasaheb's son and political heir, Uddhav.
Uddhav's worst apprehensions began to come true within a few days of Modi being named the BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate last year. He quickly began a "purge" in the party in his audacious style. Neglected and humiliated, veteran LK Advani tried to raise his voice but was "silenced".
During the campaign for the national elections, Modi visited Mumbai a few times, but ignored Uddhav. He did not meet the Sena chief, nor did he mention Balasaheb Thackeray, even in a public address a few weeks after his death.
In one public meeting, where Uddhav was present, the Sena leader was seated as though his presence was inconsequential. Such subtle and not so subtle insults had become the order of the day.
After Modi became Prime Minister, he refused to give cabinet berths to more than one member of the Shiv Sena, though the party has 18 MPs. When Shiv Sena leaders protested, they were brusquely informed that it was a take-it-or-leave-it offer. In Parliament, Modi did not respond to Shiv Sena MPs nor did he acknowledge their contribution to the NDA victory.
He seemed to have concluded that the massive victory in the national elections was his alone and that the saffrons swept Maharashtra only because of his aggressive and orchestrated campaign.
When Uddhav suggested, mildly, that the victory in Maharashtra was not only because of the Modi wave but also because of the ground work done by the Sena for nearly 48 years, the BJP scoffed at the suggestion and warned the Sena that such undermining of their leader would not be tolerated.
The Shiv Sena was emboldened to assert its stand only after the BJP lost a substantial number of seats in by elections held earlier this month in several states.
It is at that point that the number game really began in Maharashtra. Uddhav confronted the state BJP leadership with the number of seats the Sena wanted. When everyone, including this writer thought that the issue of just half a dozen seats could be easily sorted out, and that the BJP and Sena would not stretch matters to break point, came the news of sustained failure in negotiations.
But it was not a question of numbers alone. Uddhav was out to settle the score with Modi and his followers in the state who had marginalized him and his organization. Not only that. The BJP also threatened the Sena leadership that Modi would go with Raj Thackeray's Maharashra Navnirman Sena, the arch rival of Shiv Sena. That was perhaps the last straw.
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