(Ashok Malik is a columnist and writer living in Delhi)Between them, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have 120 Lok Sabha seats or about a fifth of the Lower House. For the BJP, these states are disproportionately crucial. Given the party's geographical limitations, UP and Bihar could yield up to a third of BJP seats in 2014. That is why the implications of the BJP winning a total of 50 or 60 or 70 seats between Bihar (which has 40 seats) and UP (80 seats) is very different. This is the landscape where Narendra Modi's national appeal will be tested and that will win or lose him the coming election.
It is easy and facile to contend that UP and Bihar are bastions of stagnant identity politics and caste-based mobilisation, and that the politics of hope and aspiration is alien to them. This is a gross and unfair generalisation.
Recent elections have indicated appreciable dynamism in voting patterns. People in these two states have voted for change, for a better life and for the same public goods and private commodities that are becoming pan-Indian aspirations.
Yes, caste does play a role, but it is far from the only game in town.
Consider the three most recent elections in UP. In 2007, Mayawati's BSP swept the assembly election. In 2009, the Congress took 22 of the state's 80 Lok Sabha seats. In 2012, the Samajwadi Party won a massive majority. These were not typical results. The BSP got a fair share of Brahmin votes. The SP did well in urban areas. In 2009, the Congress showing did not reflect its organic grassroots strength in UP.
In Bihar, Nitish Kumar won elections in 2005 and 2010 essentially on the commitment that the bad, lawless 1990s would not return. In all cases - whether Mayawati's victory in 2007 or Nitish's in 2010 - it was a triumph for a rainbow coalition that transcended traditional caste divisions. It suggested there was a constituency of voters who were not committed to any one party but were floaters, depending on which party promised a better future.
In 2014, Modi's principal appeal is to this floater vote. This floater vote is largely urban and small town, especially in UP. It is necessary to win big in the Hindi heartland, but it is not sufficient. It has to be complemented by old-fashioned identity politics. A subtle (and sometimes not-so-subtle) assertion of Modi's own OBC origins and the tie-up with Ram Vilas Paswan, the Dalit leader in Bihar, are part of this attempt. There is also the recognition that a majority of the so-called upper caste vote is already with the BJP.
Finally, there is the outreach to youth voters even from families and communities that have not been BJP regulars. This is happening for a variety of reasons - from local political factors to Modi's personality. For example, SP leaders concede that in 2014, at least younger Yadav voters are drawn to Modi. As a consequence of the recent religious violence in western UP, younger Jat voters are also seen as leaning towards the BJP. In Bihar, in areas where Laloo Yadav is absent, Yadavs may prefer the BJP as the party most likely to defeat Nitish Kumar.
Two questions remain. First, how much traction can the Modi story get among Dalits in UP, especially among non-Jatavs - Jatavs are Mayawati's sub-caste; and among the Mahadalits who have thus far backed Nitish in Bihar? Second, while the BJP candidate's narrative of hope and aspiration, of using his life and example as a parable for a new society of self-made achievers, is certainly compelling, is it convincing young Muslims? That last point is being cited not because Muslims are potentially going to vote for the BJP in massive numbers - they are not - but because the BJP would hope the Muslim vote does not consolidate so solidly behind the strongest non-BJP candidate as to thwart Modi's advance in seat after seat.
If Modi manages to overcome these challenges, he will make UP and Bihar central to national politics after a decade. Ironically, it will take a politician from faraway Gujarat to do that. It's happened once before, but that's another story, for another day.
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