Telangana votes tomorrow to elect first government

The voters, including 1.37crore women, will decide the political fate of 1669 candidates contesting for119 Assembly seats in the region, as also 265 candidates for 17 LS seats.

Congress, Telangana RashtraSamiti (TRS) and Telugu Desam-Bharatiya Janata Party combine are the maincontenders for power in what will be the 29th state of Indian Union.

Though there are other playerslike YSR Congress, Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, Aam Aadmi Party, Lok Satta Party,CPI and CPM in the fray, they have little at stake in the elections.

The electoral battle betweenthe main contenders is so intense that picking a "favourite" is noeasy task.

The general elections will bea close contest between the TRS and the Congress while the TDP-BJP combine isalso expected to make certain gains.

More than anyone else, theelections are highly critical for the TRS as it will be a"now-or-never" chance for it to realise its ultimate target ofachieving power in the new state.

Prominent among those seekingelection to Lok Sabha are Union Minister S Jaipal Reddy, TRS president KChandrasekhar Rao, his daughter Kavitha, Lok Satta Party president N JayaprakashNarayan, former DGP V Dinesh Reddy, former IAS officer M Chaya Ratan, CPI statesecretary K Narayana and Majlis chief Asaduddin Owaisi.

The TRS head, whose ultimatedream is becoming the first Chief Minister of Telangana state, is alsocontesting the Assembly election (from Gajwel) while other aspirants like C DamodaraRajanarasimha (former Deputy CM), J Geeta Reddy (former minister) and a host ofothers too are in the fray.

It will certainly not be acakewalk for the TRS in the elections to the new state Assembly as its clout islargely restricted to only some of the ten districts in the region and also thefact that it is fighting the elections on its own.

Its image of being a"by-election party" is also not helping the TRS, as it is not knownto win big in general elections.

The TRS has little presence indistricts like Khammam, Nalgonda and Mahbubnagar while it is no force inHyderabad city and parts of neighbouring Ranga Reddy district.

These five districts have atotal of 65 Assembly constituencies in them, more than half of the total 119 inTelangana.

Hyderabad and Ranga Reddydistricts alone account or 29, and of them 24 are purely urban segments inwhich 'non-Telangana' voters hold the key.

According to estimates,one-third of voters in Hyderabad and Ranga Reddy hail from coastal Andhra andRayalaseema regions while Muslims form one-fourth of the total electorate whocould effectively tilt the scales against the TRS.

In 2009, the TRS won only 10of the 45 seats it contested in alliance with the TDP and the Left.

It displayed a strong presenceonly in Karimnagar and Adilabad districts in north Telangana and very limited influencein Warangal, Nizamabad and Medak.

The scene in 2014 iscompletely different, now that Telangana got statehood, but will that ensuresignificant electoral gains for the party that spearheaded the movement is thebig question.

The TRS and the Congress arevying for the share of pie, each claiming credit for securing statehood for theregion.

Both are banking on the"Telangana sentiment" to reap electoral dividends.

The Congress tied up with theCommunist Party of India, which too backed Telangana, to consolidate the"sentiment" votes as the Left party has good strength in certaindistricts where, incidentally, the TRS is weak.

But the anti-incumbency bluesare haunting the Congress while the TRS is hit by a "trust deficit".

By going back on his promiseof making a Dalit the first Chief Minister of Telangana and a Muslim the DeputyCM, TRS chief K Chandrasekhar Rao has only added to the trust deficit.

Interestingly, the Congresshas promised to make a Dalit the CM of Telangana while the TDP vowed to givethe post to a backward class leader.

Indeed, this could well turnout to be a significant factor in the election as BCs and Dalits constituteover 65 per cent of the electorate in Telangana.

The TDP has, in fact, pinnedits hopes mostly on the BCs and also a section of the Dalits to ward off thenegative campaign that it tried to block the creation of Telangana state.

Also, by tying up with the BJPthat supported the creation of the new state, the TDP hopes to nullify the negativityand simultaneously ride on the "Modi wave".It is also showcasing itspast record to make a fresh bid for power to carry forward the developmentprocess in the new state.

The BJP, on the other hand,wants to reap the dividends of its support for Telangana and re-build itsstrong base in the region.

It expects the "Modiwave" to be an added advantage in this effort.

Newly-formed Jana Sena Partyof film star Pawan Kalyan is not in the electoral fray but he has lent supportto the TDP-BJP combine, which is seen a big boost to the allies.

The YSR Congress fielded itscandidates in more than 100 Assembly constituencies in Telangana though itsbase has largely eroded after it opposed the bifurcation of the state.

There is not one notable faceamong its candidates but the YSRC hopes to garner votes of non-Telanganapopulace in urban areas and possibly spoil the chances of the TDP-BJP combine.