Jhansi, Uttar Pradesh:
At a Mayawati rally in Jhansi, we come across a frenzied display of loyalty by BSP workers.
They are from the Ahirwar subcaste of Dalits, who make up a majority of Dalits in Uttar Pradesh. "We are not being drawn towards any other party, nor is there any Modi wave here", they say before breaking into wild cheers of "BSP zindabad" and "
Behenji ko Pradhan Mantri banao (make Mayawati the Prime Minister)."
This assertion of Dalit support for the cameras is meant to send a signal. As Mayawati reached out to newer social groups - like Muslims and Brahmins - between the 2007 UP assembly elections and the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the BSP lost 18 per cent of the Dalit vote, according to a survey by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).
In the 2012 UP assembly elections, in which the Samajwadi Party (SP) swept to power, the BSP won only 15 of the 85 seats reserved for Dalits.
But in the villages of Bundelkhand a brief spell of SP rule appears to have restored Dalit faith in the BSP. Like Daulatpura village in Jalaun district, which because of its high percentage of Dalits was identified as an Ambedkar village in Mayawati's first term as chief minister. Under the scheme, identified villages are meant to receive benefits of government schemes on priority, like roads, sanitation, housing and so on.
Till today no benefits have come, and yet they are loyal to Mayawati. They say that since the SP has come to power, the harassment of Dalits by upper castes has begun, and that the police turns them away when they complain.
In the nearby Dalit-dominated village of Birgovan, which did receive benefits under the Ambedkar village scheme, the proof of BSP loyalty is more concrete. The local pradhan points to how the village has got pukka roads, homes under the Indira Awas Yojana, toilets and a wedding hall.
Here, they are more than willing to overlook Mayawati's excesses. When asked about how her declared assets have jumped (from Rs 87 crores in 2010 to over Rs 100 crores in 2012), the unanimous answer is that the money is the sum of their contributions. Most of those we met in the village say they have personally donated Rs 50 or Rs 100 to the party, because "that is the only way the party will build itself up".
We ask whether they are comfortable in the knowledge that the money - at least some of it - is being declared as Mayawati's personal wealth, and used for extravagant purchases for instance a bungalow in Delhi's upscale Sardar Patel Marg shown in her assets as worth Rs 61 crores. After a brief hesitation, they say that is fine since she made houses for them as well.
But is a younger generation of Dalits as loyal, or are they drawn to newer political forces, like Narendra Modi?
The youth we met at Daulatpura and Birgowan say they remain BSP supporters. "It is the only party that has the interests of the Dalits in mind," says one. Another young man says he will continue to vote for the BSP since at least their vote will be counted. "Anywhere else," he says, "they will not believe we voted for them."
So the BSP's core base that appears to remain largely loyal, but there is no such guarantee for Mayawati's newer partners without whom electoral success will remain elusive.