Varanasi: (The first of a three-part web series on one of the most closely watched contests of the 2014 election. Truth vs Hype airs on Saturday night 10pm, Sunday 10:30 pm on NDTV 24x7)
In the narrow bylanes of Bajardiha, one of Benares' many dense Muslim pockets, there is an intense debate brewing. In the 2009 elections, they, like most of the city's approximately three lakh Muslims, voted overwhelmingly for mafia don Mukhtar Ansari, despite the fact that Mr Ansari was in prison facing a number of serious charges including murder, rioting, and criminal intimidation.
They told us that despite the charges, and his absence, for them Mr Ansari is a sort of protector. "He looks after us, so we vote for him. At any rate no politician is clean," they said.
Propelled by the Muslim vote, Mr Ansari came second in 2009, giving a scare to the BJP's Murli Manohar Joshi, who eventually won by a margin over 17,000 votes.
This time, Mr Ansari first announced his candidature but withdrew for reasons that remain unclear.
Mr Ansari is currently lodged in Agra jail. His brother Afzal, himself a candidate from the Ballia seat, east of Benares, claims Mr Ansari acted on his 'conscience'.
"Narendra Modi's entry made this into an unusual election", said Afzal, "which is why brother decided to not contest. We feel it is best to withdraw and support a consensus candidate who can defeat Modi," he said.
But Mr Ansari's reasons for withdrawal may be more pragmatic. It is widely believed once Narendra Modi came into play, Benares' Muslims sent a clear signal to Mr Ansari that they don't want a repeat of 2009, where his contesting led to splitting of the Muslim vote and galvanised Hindu voters to come out in greater numbers, leading to a BJP win.
Had Mr Ansari chosen to contest, he may have fared poorly, rendering him politically irrelevant. In Bajardiha, they told us that Mr Ansari was right to withdraw. "This way the vote will not get split", they said.
The key question of course is that with Mr Ansari gone, will Muslims vote tactically, and if so, who will they see as a stronger challenger to the BJP?
At this stage, most whom we asked seemed uncertain about Arvind Kejriwal. "He is new to Benares,' one of the Muslims said. "What does he know about the city?"
The general view seemed in favour of the Congress' candidate Ajay Rai, a five-time MLA from one of the seats abutting Benares.
As someone who spent most of his political career in the BJP, Mr Rai is an odd choice for the Congress, and for the Muslim vote. For one, Mr Rai is a Bhumihar Brahmin, a Brahmin sub-caste that make up a sizeable chunk (roughly 1.25 lakhs) of Benares' voters. Brahmins as a whole make up roughly 15 per cent of the electorate, the second most important vote base in Benares after the Muslims.
"Mere se bada Brahmin kaun? (Who is a bigger Brahmin than me?) I do an elaborate puja every morning," Mr Rai told us at his residence. At the same time, to emphasise his inclusive appeal, he swept his hand across his living room to take in a group of supporters who had gathered for a morning strategy session. "There is every group here - Muslims, Jains, Vaishyas and Rajputs," he said.
He claims he is like Mr Ansari, a benefactor of the Muslims. During the 2009 elections, a holi celebration outside a madrassa went out of hand. Violence broke out. "I rushed to Bajardiha to help the Muslims," he said.
The comparison to Mr Ansari is not off the mark. Mr Rai himself is a mini-don, facing a number of charges of attempt to murder, rioting and criminal intimidation. Predictably, he claims he has been framed by hostile state governments. "This is all Mayawati's doing, because I refused to join the BSP," he said.
In fact, Mr Ansari was accused of killing his brother, Avadhesh Rai in what is believed to be an act of inter-gang rivalry. As an indirect beneficiary of Mr Ansari's withdrawal from the contest, Mr Rai somewhat reluctant to bring up his brother's killing, simply saying that there has been no secret deal with Mr Ansari.
Mr Rai claims his strongest selling point is that he is a local, unlike the two other high-profile contenders for the Benares seat. In an amusing reference to Arvind Kejriwal and Narendra Modi, he said "they are like Siberian cranes, election tourists who will only come during season and fly away. I on the other hand am available around the clock for my people."
In balance, it seems unclear whether Mr Rai will pose a serious threat to the Modi juggernaut. But his entry, which carries it with the shadow of ganglords-turned-political messiahs so prevalent in eastern Uttar Pradesh, has certainly given the contest an edge.
In the narrow bylanes of Bajardiha, one of Benares' many dense Muslim pockets, there is an intense debate brewing. In the 2009 elections, they, like most of the city's approximately three lakh Muslims, voted overwhelmingly for mafia don Mukhtar Ansari, despite the fact that Mr Ansari was in prison facing a number of serious charges including murder, rioting, and criminal intimidation.
They told us that despite the charges, and his absence, for them Mr Ansari is a sort of protector. "He looks after us, so we vote for him. At any rate no politician is clean," they said.
This time, Mr Ansari first announced his candidature but withdrew for reasons that remain unclear.
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"Narendra Modi's entry made this into an unusual election", said Afzal, "which is why brother decided to not contest. We feel it is best to withdraw and support a consensus candidate who can defeat Modi," he said.
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Had Mr Ansari chosen to contest, he may have fared poorly, rendering him politically irrelevant. In Bajardiha, they told us that Mr Ansari was right to withdraw. "This way the vote will not get split", they said.
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At this stage, most whom we asked seemed uncertain about Arvind Kejriwal. "He is new to Benares,' one of the Muslims said. "What does he know about the city?"
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As someone who spent most of his political career in the BJP, Mr Rai is an odd choice for the Congress, and for the Muslim vote. For one, Mr Rai is a Bhumihar Brahmin, a Brahmin sub-caste that make up a sizeable chunk (roughly 1.25 lakhs) of Benares' voters. Brahmins as a whole make up roughly 15 per cent of the electorate, the second most important vote base in Benares after the Muslims.
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The comparison to Mr Ansari is not off the mark. Mr Rai himself is a mini-don, facing a number of charges of attempt to murder, rioting and criminal intimidation. Predictably, he claims he has been framed by hostile state governments. "This is all Mayawati's doing, because I refused to join the BSP," he said.
In fact, Mr Ansari was accused of killing his brother, Avadhesh Rai in what is believed to be an act of inter-gang rivalry. As an indirect beneficiary of Mr Ansari's withdrawal from the contest, Mr Rai somewhat reluctant to bring up his brother's killing, simply saying that there has been no secret deal with Mr Ansari.
Mr Rai claims his strongest selling point is that he is a local, unlike the two other high-profile contenders for the Benares seat. In an amusing reference to Arvind Kejriwal and Narendra Modi, he said "they are like Siberian cranes, election tourists who will only come during season and fly away. I on the other hand am available around the clock for my people."
In balance, it seems unclear whether Mr Rai will pose a serious threat to the Modi juggernaut. But his entry, which carries it with the shadow of ganglords-turned-political messiahs so prevalent in eastern Uttar Pradesh, has certainly given the contest an edge.
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