The Narendra Modi factor in Mayawati's balancing act

New Delhi: At a rally in the town of Jhansi in Uttar Pradesh's impoverished Bundelkhand region, Mayawati attempts to resurrect the social alliance that propelled her to power in 2007 but now views her with distrust.

In the assembly elections that year, Mayawati, the chief of the Bahujan Samaj Party or BSP, reached out to Brahmins and Muslims, who voted alongside her traditional base of Dalits to give her a record victory. But by the next assembly elections in 2012, both those groups had drifted away.

This time, she has fielded 19 Muslim candidates for the national election, more than any other party in UP. To them, her pitch is clear: the BSP, she claims, is best placed to defeat the BJP.

"If Muslims divide their vote by giving some to the Congress, the Samajwadi Party and the BSP, then your vote will directly help the BJP candidate. If you want to defeat the BJP candidate from here, then you have to make the BSP candidate win this time in Lok Sabha because the BSP candidate is getting almost 2.5 -3 lakh votes from Dalits," she said. (Country will be ruined with riots if Narendra Modi becomes PM: Mayawati)

This is a charged statement, especially since it is made in Jhansi, where the BJP is fielding Hindutva mascot Uma Bharti.

And yet, Mayawati's attack on Narendra Modi, the BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate, is mild by her standards. "Modi keeps saying in his public meetings that he will end the country's misery. But we want to ask the BJP, why didn't they do it in 6 years of NDA rule? And similarly, why didn't they do anything in Uttar Pradesh, like Modi keeps saying?"
   
In the by-lanes of Jhansi, the Muslims are not clear about Mayawati's stance on Mr Modi. Most say they would back the BSP's rival, the state's ruling Samajwadi Party, which is less ambivalent in its critique of the BJP. (Mayawati's pitch at birthday rally, rules out alliances for Lok Sabha polls)

The somewhat mild remonstrations against Mr Modi are, some say, a sign that Mayawati is keeping her options open. And also that she is worried that attacking him may not go down too well with Brahmins, the other one-time ally of the BSP she wants to win back.

Former BSP leader Shahid Siddiqui said, "Mayawati always keeps her options open. Now more than ever, she realizes that she may be required to support the central government and she may have an important role to play in forming the next government. So, she is trying to get as many seats as possible. One of the problems she is facing is that the upper caste has abandoned her. So, by not attacking Modi, she is trying to get some of the upper caste vote back."

In village after village of Bundelkhand, the Brahmins we met said Mayawati let them down. "She only worked for the Dalits" is a common refrain. This time, many say, they are opting for Narendra Modi.

Which is why, the BSP has given tickets to 21 Brahmins, again more than any other party. On stage in Jhansi is Anuradha Sharma, the BSP's candidate and a relative of SC Mishra, Mayawati's key advisor and the architect of the Dalit-Brahmin alliance.

At the rally, an argument erupted after local Muslim leaders protested at the large number of Brahmins on stage. (India Votes 2014: Full coverage)

The moment captured Mayawati's precarious balancing act between Muslims and Brahmins, especially in the polarised climate of the 2014 election.