Eknath Shinde Now Where Uddhav Thackeray Was In '19, With A Big Difference

Four hours into the counting of votes for Maharashtra Assembly polls, the BJP-led Mahayuti seems set for a landslide win, bouncing back emphatically from its setback in the Lok Sabha polls this year. 

The Mahayuti is currently leading on 221 out of 288 Assembly seats, scoring a comprehensive victory over the Opposition bloc Maha Vikas Aghadi, which is lagging far behind at 56. The BJP leads the Mahayuti show, leading in 124 out of the 148 seats it contested. It has been supported well by its allies -- Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP. Both have surged ahead of their rival factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar in an election seen as a fight to prove which faction is the 'real Sena' and the 'real NCP'.

While the Mahayuti camp has much to celebrate today, complications are waiting in the wings. And these complications are similar to the ones that emerged after the 2019 Maharashtra election, also won by NDA.

Who Will Be Chief Minister

The big question that emerges after the NDA's victory is -- who will be the next Maharashtra Chief Minister? Both Mr Fadnavis and Mr Shinde are cruising to comfortable victories in Nagpur South-West and Kopdi Pachpakhadi seats, respectively. 

The BJP is the anchor of the Mahayuti alliance and has scored the best strike rate among all NDA allies. Against this backdrop, the party is likely to push for the Chief Minister post, with senior leader Devendra Fadnavis as its clear choice. But the Shinde Sena may dig in its heels and argue that the Mahayuti went into the election with Eknath Shinde as the government's face and that the state government's policies and promises played a key role behind the massive mandate in this election.

Earlier, when the rebellion led by Mr Shinde toppled the Uddhav Thackeray government and split Shiv Sena, the BJP had taken a moral high ground by giving up the Chief Minister post. But with over 120 MLAs in their kitty, they might not be so generous this time.

Also, with all three allies performing in their strongholds, this verdict creates a breeding ground for hard bargains over ministerial posts.

A 2019 Repeat?

Interestingly, the Maharashtra result may just create a situation similar to the post-poll scenario five years back. In the 2019 state polls, the BJP had won 105 seats and the undivided Shiv Sena 56. After the results, differences cropped up over the Chief Minister post. While Uddhav Thackeray claimed an understanding over rotational Chief Ministership, the BJP denied any such pact. Eventually, the Sena pulled the plug, ending one of the most enduring alliances in the BJP's history. Five years later, there are many more players in Maharashtra's political landscape, with two factions each of Sena and NCP fighting an identity battle. And this time, the way numbers stand, the BJP and Eknath Shinde are where the BJP and Uddhav Thackeray were five years back. The question then is, will Mr Shinde blink or this victory will create a bigger challenge for the BJP? Giving up the Chief Minister post may be seen as a stepdown and pushing for it risks a rift in the alliance. There is, however, a big difference vis-a-vis 2019. With Ajit Pawar's NCP putting up a good show, the BJP needs only one out of its two allies to reach the magic figure. The Shinde Sena will keep this in mind as it pushes for any bargain.

Speaking to the media as the trends showed a clear NDA edge, Mr Shinde had a cautious reply to the Chief Minister question. "We will sit and decide," he said, adding, "(Prime Minister Narendra) Modji is our senior." 

The Maha Vikas Aghadi Subplot

A big story in this election is the stunning setback suffered by the Congress-led INDIA alliance that won 30 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in the general elections months back. The Maha Vikas Aghadi is now leading in just 52 seats, with the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharad Pawar) ahead in 19, 19 and 14 seats, respectively.

Riding on its stellar show in the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress had bargained hard to get the best deal during seat-sharing. With the Opposition party failing to convert these contests into wins, the Congress will be at the receiving end of criticism and may be accused of the pulling the alliance down. Politically, it is a massive setback for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar in the fight for their party's identity. The two leaders, who have been trying to recover after mutinies split their party, now face an identity crisis as the breakaway factions score much better than their camps.