Explained: The Math For PM's Uniform Civil Code Push And AAP's Role

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's latest pitch for a Uniform Civil Code for all Indians has sparked speculation that the BJP will try to push through a legislation to implement this with an eye on the 2024 general election.

The big question is: does the ruling party have the required numbers to get the legislation through Parliament? Lok Sabha, where the BJP has a clear majority, will be a cakewalk. But what about Rajya Sabha?

A New Possibility

Now, a statement by one of the BJP's bitter rivals, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has opened up a new line of thought. A top leader of the Arvind Kejriwal-led party yesterday said that it supports the demand for a Uniform Civil Code "in principle", but said there must be an attempt to build consensus on the matter through discussions with stakeholders.

The Rajya Sabha Math

The Upper House currently has 237 members and eight seats are vacant. The vacant seats include two nominated members. So, the majority mark is now 119. The BJP has 92 MPs, its ally AIADMK has four and seven other small parties supporting it have one each. That adds up to 103. Now add to this the support of one Independent MP and five nominated members and the BJP is still ten short of the majority mark. Even with 9 MPs of the Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal, which has indicated that it may support such a Bill, the BJP will still not cross the finish line. The Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress Party, which has backed the ruling party, on several occasions, has said it will not support a Uniform Civil Code.

The AAP factor

The AAP has 10 MPs -- three from Delhi and seven from Punjab. The AAP's stand on Uniform Civil Code, which comes amid its faceoff with the Congress at a time when Opposition parties are joining ranks for 2024, has sparked the buzz that its support may well take the Uniform Civil Code legislation past the majority mark. But, the AAP and the BJP are fierce rivals and are currently at loggerheads over the centre's ordinance to control bureaucrats in Delhi. The Congress is yet to back the AAP on this issue, prompting Arvind Kejriwal-led party to say that it is very difficult for it to join any alliance comprising the Congress. The key question then will be, will AAP back a legislation that is a pet agenda of its bitter rival BJP?

The Upcoming Rajya Sabha Polls

The Monsoon Session of Parliament is likely to begin in the third week of July and 10 Rajya Sabha seats will go to polls soon after. Out of the 10 seats, six are in West Bengal, three in Gujarat and one in Goa. Among the Bengal seats, five are currently held by the ruling Trinamool Congress and one by the Congress. This time, however, the BJP may get its first Rajya Sabha MP from Bengal.

In Gujarat, all three outgoing members are from the BJP. The Goa Rajya Sabha seat about to be vacant is also held by the BJP.

Of the eight vacant seats, two are for nominated members and four from Jammu and Kashmir. One seat is vacant after BJP's Hardwar Dubey died, and the other is empty following the resignation of Luizinho Faleiro, formerly with Trinamool.