Much like Bollywood potboilers, Maharashtra politics is going through all the drama and suspense ahead of the state election later this year. The tenure of the 288-member Maharashtra assembly ends on November 26, 2024, which means a new government has to be sworn in before that.
Power corridors in Maharashtra are agog with the news that NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) leader and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar isn't comfortable in the state's ruling Mahayuti alliance and may be looking for an out. Ajit Pawar, who split his uncle Sharad Pawar's NCP and joined hands with the BJP and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena last year, has publicly reflected on his 'mistake'.
Ever since his party's walloping in the Lok Sabha polls by voters, who unfalteringly backed Sharad Pawar's NCP (SP) with more seats, Ajit Pawar has been on the backfoot.
His wife Sunetra Pawar lost against his cousin Supriya Sule from Baramati and Ajit Pawar's faction managed only one of the four seats it had contested. Last month, Ajit Pawar conceded it was a mistake to field his wife against his sister. "One should not allow politics to enter home", Ajit Dada told a news channel. Again, at a rally in Gadchiroli on September 8, Ajit Pawar was heard lamenting about his 'mistake'.
Since the Lok Sabha election results, the constant bickering within the Mahayuti allies BJP, NCP and Shiv Sena (Shinde) have come to the fore both in private and in public.
Public Spat
The differences have been simmering for months. With the elections nearing, each party wants credit for financial schemes aimed at voters.
Recently, during a cabinet meeting, a minister from the Shinde Sena opposed the Ajit Pawar-led NCP's decision to remove Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's photo from advertisements and promotional material on the 'Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana' - a scheme to provide Rs 1,500 per month to over one crore women. The scheme was promoted as 'Ajitdada Ladki Bahin' scheme by the Ajit faction. BJP supporters retaliated by flooding Baramati, Ajit Pawar's stronghold and Sharad Pawar's turf, with posters of Eknath Shinde and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, excluding Ajit Pawar.
It was war.
Last month, a Shiv Sena (Shinde) minister publicly said he 'felt like vomiting' when he sat with Ajit Pawar. A hurt NCP denounced the remark and leaders said they felt like quitting the alliance.
The BJP, after its dismal performance in Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha elections, also realised that it was paying for associating with Ajit Pawar.
The BJP's tally in Maharashtra dived from 23 in 2019 to just nine in 2024, with its ally Eknath Shinde's party securing seven seats and the Ajit Pawar NCP managing just one.
In contrast, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP (SP), and the Congress, put up an impressive show and collectively won 30 of the 48 seats.
Recently, the BJP's ideological mentor RSS also blamed the ruling party's Maharashtra setback on Ajit Pawar. RSS mouthpieces 'Organiser' and 'Vivek' magazine said public sentiment shifted dramatically against the BJP after its 2023 alliance with the Ajit Pawar NCP. The BJP understood that people had not accepted its way of partnering with the breakaway NCP or, for that matter the Shinde-led Shiv Sena.
Brand-building strategy
Ajit Pawar has hired a strategist to revitalize his and the party's image, say sources.
On the advice of the strategist, Ajit Pawar has started wearing pink and maroon jackets to meetings and interacts regularly with the media to make a positive impression. As part of the plan, he launched his party's 'Jan Sanman Yatra', a public outreach programme focussing on schemes that Ajit Pawar announced as Maharashtra Finance Minister.
The 2024 assembly election may be Ajit Pawar's best shot at realizing his ambition of becoming chief minister. Sources say to become the 'king', he is open to taking support from any side.
To detach himself from the Mahayuti, he may well go solo. In the electoral potboiler of Maharashtra, a majority seems unlikely for any single party.
Ajit Pawar also has the option of returning to his uncle Sharad Pawar's party, but it won't be easy after repeated betrayals. "Sharad Pawar will not forgive Ajit so easily," says a source. "Sharad Pawar may take back Ajit later, after he is completely exposed and defeated, on his terms."
Ajit Pawar may not contest from Baramati this time as he would be facing another Pawar from the NCP-SP - a confrontation he wants to avoid. He may opt for a neighbouring assembly seat.
The Mahayuti is facing a stiff challenge from the opposition MVA. Just like in the Lok Sabha elections, seat-sharing is set to roil the coalition again. While the BJP is under pressure from its MLAs to contest no less than 150 to 160 seats, the Shiv Sena (Shinde) is hoping for 80 to 90 seats, and the NCP has indicated it will settle for nothing less than 70 seats.
Maharashtra is set to witness a political churn once the 10-day Ganesha festival is over.