Analysis: BJP's Big Changes In States - 4 Done, More To Follow

After a series of meetings held by the BJP leadership in the past one month, the party has started announcing key changes to its state units, replacing chiefs of Jharkhand, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and poll-bound Telangana.

Projecting complete unity in states, a balance of caste, and power over allies have been at the core of these changes.

More organizational changes are expected over the next three days, in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Kerala and Karnataka. The decisions could also lead to cabinet changes in the next few days.

G Kishan Reddy, Union Minister in charge of Culture, Tourism and Development of North East Region, has been sent to Telangana, which has triggered speculation about more ministers being handed state responsibilities. It is important to remember that the party has often made MPs fight state elections and even in 2024, it is understood that most ministers will be asked to fight Lok Sabha elections. In the BJP, ministers are generally not allowed to keep their portfolios along with the post of state chief.

For the BJP, in the run-up to the 2024 national election, its strategy is expected to revolve around political considerations, social engineering, promoting caste representation, strengthening alliances, and most importantly, keeping the flock together and satisfied. The party wants to ensure maximum productivity from its members to accomplish its goals. The BJP's recent changes in the state units point to the significance of these factors.

Telangana

The BJP has replaced Bandi Sanjay with Union Minister Kishan Reddy. This was to set the house in order, as many leaders such as Etala Rajendran, who was Finance Minister in the K Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR) government, had openly spoken against Bandi Sanjay's leadership. It was Mr Rajendran's victory in Huzurabad bypoll that positioned the BJP as an important player in Telangana. Other party MPs such as Arvind Dharmapuri, who defeated K Kavitha, the Chief Minister's daughter in 2014, had also flagged problems with the state leadership. Bandi Sanjay, a core RSS-BJP worker, has been replaced by another organisation man, Mr Reddy, and not any defector, to avoid resentment in the party.

Bandi Sanjay had undertaken a padayatra of the state, protested during the paper leak and even been arrested, earning Prime Minister Narendra Modi's praise for his efforts. Whether Bandi Sanjay will be accommodated in the central council of ministers is not known yet.

Mr Reddy was seen as the best choice to keep the flock together. He is the face of the state at the Centre, and by sending him back, the BJP has underscored that it is a serious player in Telangana. After the Congress victory in Karnataka, the BJP in Telangana was seen to lose some ground. Leaders from KCR's Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) - Ponguleti Srinivas Reddy and Juppala Krishna Rao - joined the Congress recently, and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi held a massive rally in Khammam. The BJP's campaign will intensify with the PM's visit to Telangana later this week.

Andhra Pradesh

In an interesting move, the BJP has picked former Union minister Daggubati Purandeswari to lead the Andhra Pradesh unit of the party. Ms Purandeswari, a nationally recognized figure who previously served as a minister in the UPA government, is the daughter of TDP founder and legendary actor NT Rama Rao, who ended the political dominance of the Congress in Andhra.

Ms Purandeshwari replaces Somu Veerraju, who was appointed BJP state chief in July 2020, and was facing complaints of not addressing factional fights. This can be seen as an indication that the BJP is trying to win the support of the powerful, influential, and wealthy Kamma community that has traditionally supported the TDP. The change comes days after a meeting between TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. There is already a buzz around a possible BJP-TDP tie-up in Andhra Pradesh.

But interestingly, Ms Purandeshwari and Chandrababu Naidu are not known to share a harmonious relationship though they are related. So Ms Purandeshwari's elevation is also seen to be the BJP's message to the TDP that it will be the dominant partner in the alliance. Mr Naidu left the BJP-led NDA in 2018, not on very pleasant terms. The YSR Congress Party and its chief Jagan Mohan Reddy, the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, also share a cordial equation with the BJP, often supporting the ruling party on crucial bills in parliament. This is the BJP's way of retaining power in a possible alliance, and not giving a free pass to the TDP. Andhra Pradesh will vote within nine months.

Jharkhand

In Jharkhand, where elections are scheduled next year, the BJP has gone back to Scheduled Tribe leader Babulal Marandi as the head of its state unit. The 64-year-old politician, who has been an RSS Pracharak and also the first Chief Minister of Jharkhand, has replaced Rajya Sabha MP Deepak Prakash. Mr Marandi exited the BJP in 2002, and launched his own Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), only to rejoin the BJP and merge his outfit with the party in 2020. Though the BJP made him the leader of its legislative party, the assembly didn't accept him as Leader of Opposition due to the disqualification case against him. In 2014, the BJP chose a non-tribal, Raghubar Das, as its Chief Minister, but in 2019, of the 28 seats (out of 81 in the Jharkhand Assembly) reserved for tribals, the BJP won only two. Even recently, the BJP has lost four by-elections, including in two Scheduled Tribes seats. The debate around Adivasi (tribals) and Moolvasi (original non-tribal settlers) communities living in Jharkhand is very delicate. Mr Marandi's appointment is important for the BJP to show the people of the state that it is very committed to tribal issues.

Punjab

The BJP has appointed Sunil Jakhar as its Punjab president, replacing Ashwani Sharma. Mr Jakhar is a three-time MLA and one-time MP with connections with all communities. Mr Jakhar, a Hindu Jat who switched from the Congress to the BJP in May last year, was inducted into its national executive in December along with former Punjab chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh. Mr Jakhar's appointment is important for the BJP as the party's support base in Punjab has been concentrated in urban areas involving Hindu voters since its alliance with the Akali Dal ended over the issue of farm laws.

Mr Jakhar will be critical to the BJP's efforts in Punjab, where the party is going all out to expand its support base in the Sikh-majority state, including its one-third Dalit population. The BJP, despite contesting the polls in an alliance with Captain Amarinder Singh's outfit Punjab Lok Congress and the Akali Dal breakaway faction, could win only two seats in the Punjab election.

No Decision on Karnataka Yet

The BJP is yet to announce the names of its Leader of Opposition and state president in Karnataka. Union Minister Mansukh Mandaviya and Maharashtra BJP leader Vinod Tawde, both central observers to Karnataka, returned to New Delhi following discussions with BJP MLAs and leaders in the state. Severe factionalism in the state unit is seen as the reason for the delay. With candidates from the Lingayat community as front-runners to be the opposition leader in the assembly, a Vokkaliga is likely to be picked as chief.

Other states that could see changes are Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and a few others. Kerala is particularly important for the BJP's southward focus for 2024. There is a view that senior, nationally recognised leaders, even ministers, could be made state chiefs because they will be far more capable of keeping unity.