Analysis: Challenges For "Bigger" NDA Ahead Of 2024

As the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) holds its big show of strength today, ground realities indicate that an understanding with each ally will be no cakewalk. The 24-party Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA has grown into a 38-party coalition under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Seat-sharing negotiations are likely to be tough, especially in states like Bihar and Maharashtra.

Bihar

In 2019, the BJP contested the national election with Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United (JDU) and Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). The BJP and JDU contested 17 seats each in Bihar and the LJP got six seats. The LJP was also given a Rajya Sabha seat, which became Ram Vilas Paswan's route to parliament. The NDA won 39 of Bihar's 40 seats; the BJP won 17 seats, JDU 16 and the LJP won six.

Much has changed since then. The JDU has switched sides, with Nitish Kumar forming a new government with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress.

Also, after Ram Vilas Paswan's death in 2020, the LJP split, and his son Chirag Paswan was isolated by a faction of MPs led by his uncle Pashupati Paras.

The BJP now wants both factions to merge, but Pashupati Paras is unwilling to reunite with his nephew. On the other hand, Chirag Paswan has said he expects the same deal for his party as in 2019 - six Lok Sabha seats and one Rajya Sabha seat.

To resolve this will be a big challenge for the BJP, since other regional players like Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Majhi will expect a good share in seats. The BJP would want to contest the maximum seats possible as this time, there is no JDU.

Maharashtra

The BJP and the Shiv Sena were together in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Of the state's 48 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP contested 25 and the Shiv Sena, 23 seats. The BJP won 23 seats and the Shiv Sena, 18.

Later that year, after the Maharashtra election, the Shiv Sena broke off its alliance with the BJP and formed a coalition government with the Congress and NCP.

That government crashed after the Shiv Sena split last year, and a faction led by Eknath Shinde joined hands with the BJP.

Now the Eknath Shinde faction has asked for all 18 seats that the Shiv Sena had contested in 2019.

The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has also split and the Ajit Pawar faction has joined the Eknath Shinde-BJP coalition. The NCP had won four seats in 2019. Dividing up Maharashtra's 48 seats with its allies will be a difficult prospect for the BJP.

Uttar Pradesh

In 2019, the BJP contested the polls with Apna Dal, which won both the seats it was allocated.

Now OP Rajbhar's Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party and the Nishad Party have joined the NDA. There is a buzz about them joining the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government in UP.

The BJP is also in talks with Jayant Chowdhary of the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). The party has reportedly asked Mr Chowdhary to merge his party with it, but he is reluctant to do so. If the RLD does join the NDA, then it will also expect a share of seats to contest.

Tamil Nadu

The BJP has a tie-up with the AIADMK and the smaller regional parties. In 2019, the AIADMK had contested 20 of the state's 30 Lok Sabha seats, the PMK seven, BJP five, DMDK four, Tamil Manila Congress one, Puthiya Tamilagam one and PNK one seat.

This time, more new parties are likely to join the BJP, which is focusing specially on Tamil Nadu. There is also speculation about PM Modi contesting from Tamil Nadu after his outreach to the state in multiple ways.

Haryana

The BJP and Dushyant Chautala's Jananayak Janata Party (JJP) are running a coalition government in the state. This time, the BJP has made it clear that it plans to contest all 10 seats in the state and will not attempt any pact with the JJP. There are reports that the two parties may break up before the 2024 national election.

Jharkhand

The BJP contested the 2019 election with the All Jharkhand Students' Union (AJSU). The BJP won 11 of the state's 14 seats and AJSU took one. The two may fight the next Lok Sabha polls together as well.

Assam

In 2019, the BJP contested the election with Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People's Front (BPF). The BJP contested 10 of the state's 14 seats and won nine. The AGP contested three and the BPF one, but both scored ducks.

In other regions, like Kerala and northeast, the BJP is on relatively firmer ground as its allies have limited strength and do not enjoy much bargaining power.