Analysis: Sharad Pawar's Succession Plan Reflects His Astute Politics

The appointment of Supriya Sule and Praful Patel as working presidents of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) clearly indicates Sharad Pawar's efforts to ensure his party's unity and future. It shows the veteran is not just putting in place a succession plan, but also working to strengthen the NCP's prospects in Maharashtra.

Sharad Pawar made the announcement in the presence of his nephew Ajit Pawar, the Leader of Opposition in Maharashtra. Contrary to speculation, this move is not likely to sideline Ajit Pawar. As the grassroots politician with a firm grip over local administrative affairs and as the party's "nuts-and-bolts" man in the sugarcane belt of Western Maharashtra, Ajit Pawar is likely to enjoy full functional and operational autonomy over the party's working in Maharashtra.

The announcement came weeks after Sharad Pawar's dramatic resignation as party chief, which he took back within three days amid an outpouring of grief among his supporters. It is evident that after that episode, the 82-year-old politician senses improved prospects for his party in upcoming elections and that he is ready to take on a larger role as the axis of a fragmented opposition ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Ajit Pawar remains the undisputed leader of the party in Maharashtra after his uncle. But Sharad Pawar's resignation and the overwhelming support from his party workers have only given him the emotional impetus to take the decision of anointing two of his trusted lieutenants, Supriya Sule and Praful Patel, to take the party forward.

A Role For Everyone

The Maharashtra political situation and the NCP's role in the Maha Vikas Aghadi are critical to Sharad Pawar's decision. While the Uddhav Thackeray-Ajit Pawar combine is likely to give a tough fight to the Devendra Fadnavis-Eknath Shinde duo that leads the BJP-Shiv Sena coalition in Maharashtra, Sharad Pawar perceives the unease of the BJP leadership over Eknath Shinde's success at being able to channelise Maratha votes, the Shiv Sainiks' support, and the Marathi Manoos pride in his favour.

Mr Pawar smells an opportunity, and a potential for victory, which is why he is clear on assigning roles to everyone and fostering party unity.

Ms Sule, as working president, is far more suited to that, as many in the party, senior to Ajit Pawar, did try to align with the BJP in 2019 but failed. The constant postponement of the elections to the Mumbai civic body or Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), and doubts about Sena cadre backing Eknath Shinde have also led to a buzz about the Maharashtra battle turning out to be a tightly contested one.

The support for Uddhav Thackeray after the Shiv Sena split has not been tested in a proper election, besides a few bypolls, which too have shown mixed results.

Those who understand Sharad Pawar's working style cite the example of how he has, at different times, made leaders such as Chhagan Bhujbal, RR Patil and Jayant Patil Deputy Chief Ministers of the state, emphasising on responsibilities to keep the party united.

The succession move is Sharad Pawar's best play for a future gameplan. It will also help his supporters get down to the brass tacks for actual electoral battles, starting with 2024, while he can be the guiding force to mobilise a divided opposition. Sharad Pawar is perhaps the only leader to have a cordial relationship with all opposition parties, and a persuasive one with parties that have reservations about the Congress, such as Trinamool Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and the Samajwadi Party (SP).

According to an opposition party leader, it was Sharad Pawar who expressed his concerns about Rahul Gandhi's constant invoking of Veer Savarkar at a meeting attended by several political parties. He emphasized that this was needlessly placing their ally Shiv Sena(UT) in a spot, and should be avoided.

Understanding Pawar's Politics

It has always been difficult to comprehend Mr Pawar's moves, but many of them have been well-crafted and have proven to be politically intuitive. Be it leaving the Congress in 1999 and forming a new party, to allying with the Congress in a post-poll tie-up, making it difficult for the BJP to even finish a term, to maintaining good equations with the BJP brass, Mr Pawar's actions have been a mystery to many.

The announcement by Mr Pawar also removes the uncertainty over Ms Sule's political career. The 53-year-old MP from Baramati, who has constantly been adjudged among the most active parliamentarians, has raised very important questions ranging from financial literacy in school curriculum, to data privacy, energy and organic waste, public health and other topics. She introduced a bill in parliament on legalising same-sex marriages, and even pushed for two years' maternity leave for women, like in many developed Scandinavian countries.

It is not often that politicians have chosen their daughters to inherit their legacy and party, and in a political climate that is anti-dynasty, it is not easy to. However, in politics, the fight over legacy has always been tilted in favour of the offspring, instead of the nephew. The succession stories of Balasaheb Thackeray and Mulayam Singh Yadav are some examples of that.

Mr Pawar's succession announcement also makes it clear that while legacy is important to him, he is insulated from decisions the party makes in the future. This is why he had the foresight to put a plan in place, and perhaps hopes his political wisdom will take care of the rest.