Analysis: What Ails Congress In Gujarat?

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has accused a section of party leaders in Gujarat of "conspiring with the BJP" and said the party should be ready to remove "20 to 30 people" in the state if required. Gandhi made the statements on his two-day Gujarat visit on March 6 and 7, during which he held meetings with party leaders.

With its sights set on the 2027 Gujarat election, the Congress leadership is ramping up its efforts to overhaul the party in the state. Gandhi indicated a major revamp and projected confidence about taking on the ruling BJP. The AICC (All India Congress Committee) will hold a two-day session at Ahmedabad on April 8 and 9.

"There are two types of people in the Gujarat Congress leadership and among workers. Those who are honest with people, fight for them, respect them and have the ideology of the Congress in their heart. And others who are cut off from the people, sit far away, do not respect them, and half of whom are with the BJP," he said.

Point taken. But is that enough to rejuvenate the state cadre and transfer votes to the Congress? Is Rahul Gandhi missing the bigger picture again?

Shrinking foothold

Gandhi feels that with a 40% voter base still intact in Gujarat, Congress could work on improving the party's vote share by just 5% to become a viable option. But he warns that this will only happen after a proper "sieving" of party members.

Will this open criticism of senior Gujarat Congress leaders in front of their party colleagues be enough to salvage the party? Isn't the Congress leadership equally responsible for the decline, with hardly any corrective move besides these occasional discussions about feuds?

In the 2022 Gujarat polls, the BJP won 156 out of 182 seats, while the Congress could manage only 17 seats. AAP won five seats. The BJP polled 52.50% votes, while the combined vote share of the Congress and AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) was 40.2%. This is the combined opposition vote share per cent Rahul Gandhi was referring to.

In the 2022 assembly polls, AAP, for the first time, fielded candidates in all 182 seats and contested against both the BJP and Congress. AAP emerged as the third force and made major inroads into the Congress's vote bank. The Congress vote share shrunk to over 27% in 2022 while AAP got nearly 13%. AAP managed to give the BJP a tough fight and also prevented the Congress from winning some seats. In over 30 seats, AAP emerged as the runner-up.

The BJP-AAP fight overthrew the Congress in some of the seats that the party had won in 2017. AAP also ousted the Congress from its bastion in the tribal belt. Although it could win only one seat, AAP gave a direct contest to the BJP in nine of the 27 seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes.

Soon after the INDIA alliance was formed, AAP and Congress leaders agreed that the division of opposition votes played an important role in the BJP winning 156 assembly seats, the highest ever in Gujarat polls. Before the 2024 national election, there were tough negotiations between the alliance partners, and after much back-and-forth, the Congress decided to contest 24 Lok Sabha seats, ceding two - Bharuch and Bhavnagar.

But there was resentment among local Congress leaders as Bharuch happened to be a 'sentimental' seat. It was the home and constituency of late Ahmed Patel, who was Congress leader Sonia Gandhi's closest aide. There were protests from local units, but it was ignored by the high command.

The Congress won one Lok Sabha seat in Gujarat (out of 24 seats), from Banaskantha - its first Lok Sabha victory in Gujarat since 2009. AAP won none of the two.

Recent results from Gujarat's local bodies-68 municipalities, three panchayat samitis (taluka councils), and the Junagadh Municipal Corporation- also show that voter confidence is slipping away from the Congress. In fact, the Congress has lost further ground, sliding from its previous tally of 15 municipalities to just one.

Rahul Gandhi's Gambit

What irks the Congress is the constant desertions, be it by MLAs or its leaders, to the BJP. Its strength in the assembly came down to 12 after the resignation of five MLAs.

Denying the Congress charges, Chaitanyasinh Zala, BJP MLA from Padra, Gujarat says, "BJP doesn't need Congress people. In fact, Congress is unable to control them. Therefore, several Congress leaders have aligned with BJP's ideology."

"Citizens of Gujarat have benefited from the security and development provided by successive BJP governments. However hard the Congress party might try, they won't ever be able to form a government here," says Zala.

He adds, "By not naming those Congress party members who are allegedly working for BJP, Rahul Gandhi has kept his cadre guessing and directionless."

Rahul Gandhi is right when he says Congress needs to work to change the voter sentiments in the state. After 25 years of BJP rule, there was some anti-incumbency in 2022. However, many people voted for AAP as an option, not the Congress. In fact, in all the elections, Congress has been ceding space to AAP and other parties like Samajwadi and regional outfits.

Having been out of power for almost three decades, the state Congress has been riven by feuds that the leadership seems to have chosen to ignore. Earlier, committees had been formed about the reasons for the successive defeat of the party and the members who may have acted against the party's interests, but no action was taken from the top.

"In Gujarat, an alliance with AAP has led to great losses for Congress. During local elections, our supporters have had to fight on other party's tickets like AAP and regional parties. The Congress cadre was disillusioned because they had to work for other parties. Our vote base shifted to AAP," says Parimalsinh Rana, ex-president, district Congress, Bharuch.

For example, supporting Chaitar Vasava, a tribal leader and AAP MLA, in the Lok Sabha election, weakened the Congress in Bharuch district. After Ahmed Patel's death, the Congress's base was further eroded in Gujarat because minorities drifted away. His daughter Mumtaz Patel is considered a newbie by the party.

After setting its house in the order, the Congress must think of a better narrative to be able to make a mark in 2027, let alone dream of a victory.