Analysis: How Last-Mover Advantage May Affect Telangana Results

The excitement of elections is all about the twists and turns in the run-up to voting day, which sometimes produce tectonic shifts and change the dynamics of the electoral battlefield.

The BRS (Bharat Rashtra Samithi) had hoped that with the Election Commission giving the go-ahead to disburse money under the Rythu Bandhu scheme, 2023 could become a repeat of 2018. The hope was that it would drive the outcome of the election and replicate a 2018 repeat.

However, the Election Commission has now stopped the transfer of money and the Congress is understandably elated as the BRS has lost a psychological advantage that could have accrued with the money pouring into accounts under the popular scheme.

The Congress camp had feared that like in 2018, people would receive notifications on their phones of money deposited in their accounts even as they stood in line to vote. The feel-good factor, Congress leaders believe, helped the BRS.

Is the Election Commission's order a big setback to the BRS? Some 66 lakh farmers have enjoyed the benefit of the Rs 72,000 crore direct cash transfer over 10-11 cropping seasons. These farmers cultivated over 1.43 crore acres and received Rs 5,000 per acre per season.

The Rabi amounts were to be paid out between October and January. So, there is no reason people would be unduly disappointed if the money is paused until November 30.

The money is not unexpected; it has been paid out every season, ever since the Rythu Bandhu scheme came into effect, and a new instalment would have reinforced the credibility or dependability of the KCR government at a time when questions are being raised about whether the Congress can deliver on its lofty promises.

What the Election Commission had objected to was Telangana Finance Minister Harish Rao saying, "Your mobile phones will start buzzing with the message that money has been transferred into your account on Tuesday morning" and adding that they should remember KCR (Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao) was responsible for it.

Now the BRS leaders are blaming Congress for the payouts to their accounts being stopped, telling farmers that the party is anti-farmer. They are also telling people the Congress will give them only Rs 15,000 annually, whatever the size of their land holding, compared to the BRS distributing Rs 10,000 per acre, with the promise of increasing it to Rs 16,000 per acre in stages. Not a word about tenant farmers or agricultural labourers, who are not covered under the scheme.

At the same time, Congress leader Revanth Reddy is telling farmers that Harish Rao is responsible for stopping the Rythu Bandhu transfers to their accounts. The party leaders continue to tell people that the Congress's schemes for farmers include tenant farmers, who comprise 36 per cent of cultivators. The party has also promised to pay Rs 12,000 annually to agriculture labourers and also waive crop loans of up to Rs 2 lakh.

The Congress is not focusing on criticism that the most landed, richest farmers are drawing the maximum benefit from among the 66 lakh beneficiaries of the Rythu Bandhu scheme. In election season, you cannot afford to alienate anyone.

Undoubtedly, the Opposition Congress made the maximum gains in the last few weeks and months, with a visible momentum building up for the party. That was a swing in the public mood that the BRS was unable to control.

The BJP too has been dismissed as a non-player but they too will make significant gains in vote share and the number of seats. Just the Prime Minister's roadshows, public meetings and street corner meetings of Amit Shah and others could add a neat 2-3 per cent vote share advantage.

So now is the time for the BRS to play its Brahmastra or ultimate weapon. Senior leaders and even the Opposition admit that KCR's ability to cover the last mile and reach the last voter is impressive. The well-entrenched networks of the BRS party will be at work to ensure unofficial benefits reach in hand and turn the last-minute sentiment and the votes in favour of the party.

The big advantage for the ruling party is that all its campaign managers are locals, district and mandal leaders, whereas at many places, for the Congress and even the BJP, the managers are imported from outside - for example Karnataka - and would be expected to leave the constituency on the eve of election. So they are unable to connect with the pulse of voters.

This happened just before the Munugode bypolls too. Add to this the effective use of social media networks to create negative propaganda of unfulfilled expectations for the opponent. One strategist directly involved in the operation admitted it was time for dirty tricks. Put out the word that the opposition candidate and party are, for example, doing 3X for the voter whereas the voter may only receive X. That creates discontent, frustration and disappointment in that candidate and party, benefitting the rival party.

Every party is in the game. The difference is in how smoothly and efficiently they carry out the operation. Perhaps that is why Revanth Reddy likened fighting an election to art. "Till the last stroke, you may not know what the painting is going to be. Nothing different about an election." The man formally trained to be a visual art student should know.

Hoping for a last-minute twist to the Rythu Bandhu story, the BRS has written to the Election Commission saying there was no violation of the model code and requesting that the decision be reversed.