BJP Landslide Win In UP, Says New Exit Poll, AAP Is Punjab Giant

The BJP is set for a massive victory in Uttar Pradesh and the Congress will be routed in Punjab, a new post poll survey has predicted just a day before the counting of votes cast in five state elections tomorrow.

The BJP and its allies will win 43 per cent of the vote share in Uttar Pradesh, says the Lokniti-CSDS exit poll.

The CSDS survey does not project the number of seats but with a similar vote share in the 2017 election, the BJP and its allies had won more than 300 seats in the 403-member assembly.

Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party, the BJP's main challenger, will win 35 per cent of the votes, says the exit poll.

Mayawati's BSP is set to win 15 per cent of the votes, the Congress three per cent and the others, four percent, Lokniti-CSDS says, according to a series of tweets by political analyst Sanjay Kumar.

Lokniti- CSDS Post Poll Survey UP
AC 70 Locations 280
Sample size nearly 7000 (exact number awaited as some data yet to be added)
Vote Share Estimate
BJP+ 43%
SP+ 35%
BSP 15%
Cong 3%
Oth 4%
Big win for BJP
Margin of error 3%@LoknitiCSDS @csdsdelhi

— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) March 9, 2022

Lokniti- CSDS Post Poll Survey findings PUNJAB
No of AC 45 Locations 180 all sampled randomly, Sample size 4668, voters sampled randomly from voters list
Vote share Estimate
AAP 40%
Cong 26%
SAD+20%
BJP+ 7%
Oth 7%
Big victory for AAP
Margin of error 4%@LoknitiCSDS @csdsdelhi

— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) March 9, 2022

Finding from Lokniti-CSDS Post Poll survey UTTARAKHAND
No of AC 26 Locations 104, Sample size 2738, All sampled randomly
Estimated Vote Share
BJP 43%
Cong 38%
AAP 3%
BSP 4%
Oth 12%
Should give a comfortable majority to BJP
Margin of error 3%.@LoknitiCSDS @csdsdelhi

— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) March 9, 2022

Lokniti-CSDS Post Poll survey GOA
AC 20 location 80 sample size 2066 sampled from voters list
Vote share estimate
BJP 32%
Cong 29%
AITC+ 14%
AAP 7%
RG 8%
Oth 10%
Hung Assembly possible
Margin of error 6% due to smaller sample & multi corner contest@LoknitiCSDS @csdsdelhi

— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) March 9, 2022

A health warning - exit polls often get it wrong.

In Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will be the champion with 40 per cent of the votes and the Congress, 26 per cent, says Lokniti-CSDS. The Congress is heading for a humiliating defeat, it says.

The BJP is set to win seven per cent of the votes while its former ally, Akali Dal, will win 20, says the exit poll.

The BJP will have an edge in Uttarakhand, says the Lokniti-CSDS poll. It is a hung verdict again in Goa results, it says.

In Goa, the new exit poll gives the BJP 32 per cent of the votes and the Congress, 29 per cent. The Trinamool Congress will win 14 per cent and AAP will win seven per cent, it says.

Congress will lose in Uttarakhand too, the Lokniti-CSDS survey says. The BJP will win 43 per cent of the votes in Uttarakhand and the Congress, 38 per cent, says the survey.

For UP, Punjab and Goa, these predictions are in sync with the exit polls that came out on Monday, after the last round of voting in Uttar Pradesh.

NDTV's poll of exit polls says the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP is likely to win 241 of the state's 403 seats (the majority-mark is at 202). Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party is set to win 142 seats, the polls say.

The Axis-India Today's poll forecast of 288-326 seats for the BJP-led alliance is closer to the CSDS survey's prediction today.

For Punjab, earlier exit polls predicted an AAP victory. The exit polls give AAP 63 seats in 117-seat Punjab, with the majority mark at 59. The ruling Congress is set to finish second with 28 seats in the assembly, the polls say.

Most exit polls have predicted hung verdicts in Goa and Uttarakhand.