New Delhi: Given Shibu Soren's political track record, the BJP should have known this was coming. The Jharkhand Chief Minister voted against his ally in the state and supported the UPA when it faced a majority test.
"We just voted... we had to vote for someone... so we voted for the Congress," Soren said after the voting on the Cut Motions on Tuesday.
The BJP's top leaders met and the faction opposed to an alliance with Soren for his unpredictability and criminal record had its way. The party withdrew support to the JMM government in Jharkhand, reducing it to a minority.
"We have decided to withdraw support," BJP general secretary Anant Kumar said.
Since 1993, Shibu Soren has displayed an unwillingness to remain in Opposition. To be in power, he has changed loyalties on the floor of the House and changed allies. But this time,his political adventure might bring him instant losses.
So, did the Congress have a hand in Soren's startling U-turn? It denies this and has ruled out supporting Soren, given his soft approach to Naxals.
But sources in JMM say Soren's flip-flop is really about palace intrigue. Shibu's son Hemant Soren was desperate to be the Chief Minister. To remain in the CM's chair, Soren had to get elected to the state Assembly by June 12. But his MLAs, including his son and daughter-in-law refused to step down to make way for him. Upset, Soren has now checkmated them.
Hemant Soren is now scrambling, especially with the Congress shutting its doors. In a desperate bid to remain in power, he apologised to the BJP on Wednesday night and claimed his father was ready to resign for a new leader.
"We would request them to rethink on withdrawing the support," Hemant said.
But the BJP is not blinking - at least not right now. Its leaders plan to keep their appointment with the Governor on Thursday morning - to withdraw support. But back channels are working to find out if this offer has Shibu Soren's nod. Meanwhile, the UPA is watching the split closely. If the Soren government falls, the Congress has a good chance of installing a chief minister with these numbers:
Congress + Babulal Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) + Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) together have 31 seats, while Teklal Mahato's breakaway JMM faction has 10. Also, small groups like All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) have eight seats, which takes the potential total to 49. The half-way mark in the 82-member Assembly is 41.
"If the getting together of secular forces permits, all reasonable, valid and legal options can be explored," Congress leader Abhishek Manu Singhvi said.
But if this too fails then Jharkhand - a mine-rich yet very poor state - will face President's Rule, or still more political instability and horsetrading, pushing the state's real problems like hunger and Naxalism out of the headlines.