Cabinet Reshuffle Likely To Promote These Two Ministers

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to reconfigure his team this spring, partly because of approaching elections in states, with primary importance for Uttar Pradesh which votes next year.

A cabinet reshuffle is expected either in the first week of February, said government sources to NDTV, or mid-May, after the key budget session of parliament concludes. The government has overseen rapid economic growth but failed on tax and land reforms, and the euphoria that met PM Modi's 2014 election triumph has given way to investor disillusionment; stocks have erased all of their gains since he won power.

The "Big Four" portfolios (Finance, Defence, Home and External Affairs) will not be reassigned, said sources. Contrary to some media reports, Arun Jaitley is expected to remain Finance Minister and not return to the Defence Ministry, of which he earlier held additional charge.
 The PM and his party also face a crucial election test next year in Uttar Pradesh , the country's most populous state. The results there will be seen as a major indicator of the next general election in 2019.  With 13 members, UP is currently the best-represented state in the cabinet, but that group could swell; Bihar, which has eight members in the cabinet, and rejected the BJP in its recent state election, could see some cuts.

Under-performers could be reassigned as General Secretaries of the BJP; among the ministers likely to be promoted is Power and Coal Minister Piyush Goyal. There is also talk of a larger role for Nitin Gadkari, minister for Road Transport and Highways. Sources said there are deliberations on whether to assign a new and expansive Transport Ministry to him that could include Civil Aviation and Shipping.

A central minister and two BJP officials unnamed by Reuters said Mr Goyal, 51, was being groomed for his next big role. He is seen as a good communicator and has often travelled abroad with PM Modi, but lacks political and electoral experience. The ex-investment banker has turned around state-run Coal India, tackled chronic power shortages and backed renewable sources of energy. An aide in his office who spoke to news agency Reuters denied knowledge of an impending promotion.
 "Goyal is doing a fine job - he has brought a lot of energy to the coal and power sector," said Rajiv Kumar, senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi.

As Finance Minister , Mr Jaitley, who will deliver the annual budget in late February, continues to enjoy the confidence of the PM, said sources. Major reforms have not cleared parliament with the opposition refusing to support them, and though the economy is growing fast, it is not creating enough jobs.

"Modi needs to identify new talent and bring changes in his government. It will be too late if he fails to do it now," said veteran newspaper editor and commentator Shekhar Gupta.