India 2020 Data "Corroborates"...: Expert Explains WHO Covid Deaths Report

In the massive controversy over the World Health Organisation (WHO) report claiming 4.7 million "excess" Covid deaths in India and the government's sharp rebuttals, a member of the WHO's Technical Advisory Group (TAG) says the data is corroborated by the government's own figures.

In a report released Thursday, WHO said between January 2020 and December 2021, there were 4.7 million "excess" Covid deaths in India -- the maximum number that's 10 times the official figures and almost a third of Covid deaths globally. The global figure, according to the report, was 15 million -- more than double the official figure of 6 million.

In 2020, India recorded 4,74,806 deaths as excess -- meaning over and above normal -- under the Civil Registration System.

The Union health ministry has called the WHO's system of data collection "statistically unsound and scientifically questionable".

Prabhat Jha, a key part of the WHO process that arrived at the numbers, told NDTV that he fully endorsed the WHO data and that it was along the lines of other independent surveys and data released by the government.

''I accept these (WHO) numbers and in fact, the Indian government's release of the Civil Registration System Data of 2020 corroborates the WHO estimates for 2020 and let me explain how. There were 8.1 million deaths in 2020 recorded in the CRS. If you compare that to the average of the two previous years, you shouldn't compare it to one year - that's cherry-picking, compare it to the average of the two previous - the difference is 0.8 million deaths. What is the WHO's estimate for 2020 deaths? It's 0.8 million deaths. What is our estimate based on the national polling death? Well, it's 0.6 million deaths but we only covered eight months," Dr Jha told NDTV.

So, the CRS release corroborated the WHO numbers, he said, at least for 2020.

''If the Indian government wanted to get to the truth of what is going on, then release the Civil Registration System data by week so you can look exactly, during the peak weeks ... was there an excess," he said.

He also referred to Maharashtra, which, he said, had a 19% excess in 2020 versus earlier deaths. "The Indian average was 11%. And that's exactly consistent with the WHO numbers. And we all know that in 2020, Maharashtra was particularly hard hit. So, the Indian government's own data is corroborating the WHO estimates, at least for 2020,'' said Dr Jha.

''If the Indian government wants to get at the truth, then in the September 2022 census, put a question - Was there a death in this house in 2020, 2021, 2022? If so, age, sex and date.' That will give you definitive evidence to settle this debate.''

He said one just had to look at excess deaths and if there was an excess in particular weeks where a pandemic was raging, "it has to be Covid".

The Chief of the country's Covid Working Group today called the report "worrisome".

Speaking to NDTV, Dr NK Arora, chief of India's Covid Working Group, said that while there can be a 15-20% discrepancy, India's robust and accurate death registration system, CRS, ensures that a majority of virus-related deaths are covered.

"In 2018, around 85-88 per cent of deaths were covered. In 2020, 98-99 per cent of the deaths were covered. In 2018 and 2019, seven lakh deaths additional took place. Do we say that all were Covid? Out of the excess 4.6 lakh, 1.45 were the reported deaths. Those three lakh deaths took place due to other reasons. Even if we say 4 lakh deaths were extra, still it does not fit into the WHO estimates," Dr Arora said.